NHL Grind Down: Thursday, February 15th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-02-15 19:02:41 Premium Content Part of the product Core4

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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Los Angeles Kings at Pittsburgh Penguins

Los Angeles Kings					Pittsburgh Penguins
			Jonathan Quick					Matt Murray
			Record					Record
			30-21-5					32-22-4
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.86	2.50	19.38	83.42	Team Stats	3.10	2.97	26.67	82.74

Kings Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 57.09 CF/60 (18) | 56.89 CA/60 (21) | 2.13 xGF/60 (23) | 2.28 xGA/60 (17)

Two nights after facing the Pens as a member of the Sens, Dion Phaneuf returns. The Kings continue their eastern road trip with a visit to the surging Penguins in a dynasty circa 2013 rematch. Of course, Pittsburgh is still playing at a high level whereas the Kings have fallen off. Pittsburgh has tightened up defensively, limiting shot attempts and scoring chances allowed, though HD attempts are still a problem from time to time.

The problem with that is the Kings aren’t very good at generating such chances. They enter tonight as one of the worst teams in the league in terms of HDCF/60, and things haven’t been much better over the past month. Offense has been sporadic and only scoring chances generated over the past month look favorable.

The Kings split up Anze Kopitar and Tyler Toffoli, their two best forwards sans Carter. Toffoli moved back down to the second line with Adrian Kempe and Tanner Pearson while Kopitar will center Alex Iafallo and Dustin Brown again. These lines have experience together this year, with Kopitar reviving Brown’s career and leading the charge in HDCF. Toffoli’s return to the second line boosts Pearson’s outlook as he has not been all that productive with the 70’s Line incomplete.

In the end, neither line really jumps out here. LA does a lot of damage on the power play but they don’t get a great matchup there. The Crosby line will likely work against the Kopitar line, leaving Toffoli’s group to play against Malkin and the Penguin seconds. With the way Pittsburgh is playing, these aren’t really favorable matchups, though Crosby’s numbers haven’t been at an elite level defensively this year.

Kings Special Teams Outlook
Los Angeles has had a productive power play this year, but they don’t get much of a boost tonight. Pittsburgh enters tonight allowing the second fewest shot attempts and second fewest scoring chances per shorthanded hour. Their high-danger attempts allowed are also a in the top ten lowest rates. Also, while Pittsburgh goes shorthanded at an elevated rate (3.4 times per game), Los Angeles draws power plays at a subpar rate (2.9).

Kings Goaltending Outlook
Defensively, this Kings team is quite different than what we’ve seen in the past. They are more vulnerable in their own zone and they don’t suffocate opposing offenses anymore. This is a problem tonight as they pay visit to a red hot Penguin offense that is lethal on home ice. After getting walloped by Hurricanes, the damage seems likely to continue tonight. Though LA’s defense had been playing a little better over the last month, it’s fair to wonder if Phaneuf’s addition is really a subtraction.

Penguins Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 61.07CF/60 (6) | 56.85 CA/60 (22) | 2.4 xGF/60 (10) | 2.29 xGA/60 (14)

The Penguins are flying right now, despite what science books and local zoos have to say about the matter. All of the big names are stepping up and they are taking the satellite wingers with them like we’ve seen in seasons past. Over the last month, and really since the start of calendar 2018, the Penguins are on the short list for most explosive offenses. They are pushing play well and generating extreme amounts of scoring chances and high-danger shot attempts at 5v5.

Los Angeles typically isn’t a defense we like to pick on, but all is now well with them. Jonathan Quick is struggling and the system isn’t the same as what we’ve seen in the past. They are operating as slower pace, low event team as opposed to the group that pushed play well and smothered opponents.

The main issue tonight is paying a high cost for the Penguins stars in a neutral matchup. White hot Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin won’t come cheap, especially if you’re adding in Phil Kessel or Justin Schultz. Crosby is pulling Bryan Rust along with him at 5v5, and Rust does come a little cheaper (Dominik Simon hasn’t been as dynamic). Malkin and Kessel, along with Carl Hagelin, have been on another level. Hagelin still offers some value given the exposure he brings. Note that in-game last time out, the Penguins jumbled their lines up after a slow start. Keep an eye on morning skate notes as the lines could change and we could see Kessel move back down to the third line.

Penguins Special Teams Outlook
While shorthanded, the Kings have allowed the second most scoring chances per hour. They also have an elevated rate of HD shot attempts allowed. I’ve been saying that their penalty kill rate, currently at 83.4%, is overstated. The Penguins can help bring that number down further. As we all know, the Penguin power play is the juggernaut. This is a nice little source of payoff for the high salary of the big name forwards and Kris Letang, who seems to be getting in an offensive rhythm. Also, note that Jake Guentzel works on the top unit and Justin Schultz has been siphoning more and more power play time from Letang.

Penguins Goaltending Outlook
Matt Murray has struggled a bit this year, but on the plus side, he’s getting better effort from the Pittsburgh defense. While high-danger shot attempts have remained a speed bump over the last month, Pittsburgh has tightened up the shot attempts and scoring chances allowed, an issue that plagued them early in the year. LA’s offense is toothless these days, with only a handful of threatening forwards on the roster. This is a spot where Murray should be able to get better, but then again, he wilted a bit after Pittsburgh got up big against Ottawa last time out.

Kings Elite Plays: Anze Kopitar, Tyler Toffoli
Kings Secondary Plays: Dustin Brown, Tanner Pearson, Jake Muzzin, Drew Doughty
Stackability: Orange
Goaltending: Orange / Red

Penguins Elite Plays: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel
Penguins Secondary Plays: Bryan Rust, Carl Hagelin, Jake Guentzel, Kris Letang, Justin Schultz
Stackability: Yellow
Goaltending: Yellow