NHL Grind Down: Thursday, February 1st

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-02-01 20:23:24 Premium Content Part of the product Combo Lite

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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers

Toronto Maple Leafs					New York Rangers
			Curtis McElhinney					Henrik Lundqvist
			Record					Record
			29-18-5					25-20-5
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	3.10	2.84	20.98	83.23	Team Stats	2.98	2.94	20.13	81.65

Maple Leafs Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 59.78 CF/60 (14) | 59.59 CA/60 (9) | 2.58 xGF/60 (1) | 2.45 xGA/60 (4)

After hosting one porous New York defense, the Leafs will travel to face another. This is a juicy matchup for Toronto as New York has struggled mightily defensively once again this year. They own the league’s highest 5v5 expected goals allowed rate as they haven’t had much luck suppressing scoring chances or HD shot attempts (or any shot attempts, really). They’ve been oh-so-slightly better over the past month, but only by their standards: They still rank as atop ten more generous team in shot attempt quantity and quality allowed.

With Toronto owning the league’s highest expected goal rate at 5v5, it would thus point to a game in which the Leafs will score some goals. They play extremely well at 5v5 and have no issues pumping shots or generating scoring chances. They should find plenty of room to work against New York’s Swiss cheese defense.

As is usually the case, figuring which line to hone in on is the challenge. Auston Matthews and William Nylander (with Zach Hyman) play fast and produce high-event hockey games when they are on the ice. That sets them up with a very reasonable floor tonight and the ceiling is always elevated. Toronto’s recently improved second line (Nazem Kadri, Patrick Marleau, Mitch Marner) have looked outstanding together. They should avoid Kevin Hayes at 5v5 as he will likely work against the Mattews line. There really isn’t a matchup concern here, but Hayes is NY’s defensive center. Finally, James van Riemsdyk gets another nice matchup from his third line position with Tyler Bozak and Connor Brown. Losing Marner hurts the line as a stack and makes Bozak extremely low floor.

Overall, Toronto makes for a strong team to consider playing tonight. They have an A+ matchup, they’re a dominant offense, and the fact that they played last night may actually help them following the long rest. This is the Rangers’ first game in a week.

Maple Leafs Special Teams Outlook
Lest the 5v5 matchup be enough for Toronto, their high powered power play gets a great matchup to add on. The Rangers have oddly been very strong limiting overall shot attempts while shorthanded, but they have struggled to stop scoring chances and HD shot attempts. Toronto, not surprisingly, produces both of these items in good quantity, setting Toronto up for a very nice night offensively in all phases.

Maple Leafs Goaltending Outlook
With Frederik Andersen starting last night, look for Curtis McElhinney to draw in tonight. It’s not a great matchup as the Rangers, despite their horrible CF/60, have been a dangerous offense. They don’t drive play or attempts at a high rate at 5v5, but they have good quality and create numerous scoring chances. Toronto’s defense is a bit questionable at times and this game will likely be played at a high pace, making McElhinney a risky option.

Rangers Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 52.96CF/60 (28) | 62.88 CA/60 (2) | 2.47 xGF/60 (3) | 2.59 xGA/60 (1)

The Rangers will be playing in their first game in a week, having missed out the previous two nights post All-Star break. They will hope their offense hasn’t cooled much as they found success lighting the lamp in California. It’s fair to wonder if rust will be an issue tonight, especially with Toronto playing fast and having shaken the cobwebs off last night. We’ve seen many teams struggle out of their bye week.

Toronto’s fast pace of play opens their defense up to chances coming back their own way. After a slower rate for a bit, the past month has seen Toronto rank inside the top ten in shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger attempts allowed. Assuming the Rangers are ready to roll, they should be in a track meet here. They also get to avoid Frederik Andersen.

New York’s top line of Mika Zibanejad, Rick Nash, and Pavel Buchnevich is very intriguing tonight given the circumstances. This line checks some important boxes: Matchup, form, underlying production, and realized production are all met. The only potential issue is a 5v5 matchup with the defensively strong Kadri line, given that the second line of Kevin Hayes, Mats Zuccarello, and J.T. Miller will likely see more time against the Matthews line. The Matthews line allows a good deal of chances and quality attempts and they play fast, so there should openings there for NY.

Rangers Special Teams Outlook
Toronto isn’t a team that has had to kill too many penalties this year (just over three per game) and when shorthanded, they have generally played well defensively. They don’t have elevated numbers of shot attempts or scoring chances allowed, and quality is low too. This is an issue as New York’s power play numbers aren’t great, making the power play matchup not much of a value adder.

Rangers Goaltending Outlook
Henrik Lundqvist and Ondrej Pavelec play behind one of the worst defenses in the league. Henrik has kept his head above water most nights, but he’s setup to fail. There are just too many quality chances and attempts allowed at both 5v5 and on the penalty kill. In a game that should be wide open and feature plenty of offense, this is a crease to avoid.

Maple Leafs Elite Plays: Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Nazem Kadri, Mitch Marner, Jake Gardiner
Maple Leafs Secondary Plays: James van Riemsdyk, Zach Hyman, Patrick Marleau, Travis Dermott
Stackability: Green
Goaltending: Orange

Rangers Elite Plays: Rick Nash, Pavel Buchnevich, Mika Zibanejad
Rangers Secondary Plays: Mats Zuccarello, Kevin Hayes, Michael Grabner
Stackability: Yellow
Goaltending: Red