NHL Grind Down: Thursday, February 22nd

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-02-22 18:48:57 Premium Content Part of the product Core4

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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Columbus Blue Jackets at Philadelphia Flyers

Columbus Blue Jackets					Philadelphia Flyers
			Sergei Bobrovsky					Petr Mrazek
			Record					Record
			30-25-5					31-19-10
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.55	2.77	14.29	76.16	Team Stats	3.00	2.82	21.61	75.00

Blue Jackets Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 61.06 CF/60 (9) | 57.6 CA/60 (19) | 2.57 xGF/60 (3) | 2.41 xGA/60 (6)

Columbus finally saw their torrid shot attempt rate slow in their last outing (at New Jersey), but importantly they picked up an critical win. Their offense is likely to struggle to put up those monster shot numbers we saw them posting the last few weeks. The Flyers have been a strong defensive team this year, keeping the pace slower and limiting overall attempts and chances allowed. In fact, they have been a been a bottom five team in allowing shot attempts per hour at 5v5.

Worst yet, look for Columbus’s top line of Artemi Panarin, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and Cam Atkinson to deal with Philadelphia’s top line, led by defensive center Sean Couturier. This line has been fantastic in shutting down opposing offenses, making this a worrisome matchup. The blueline is also good, so there is plenty of reason to be cautious with this line.

The on-ice matchups are a bit better for the second (Alex Wennberg, Boone Jenner, Oliver Bjorkstrand) but they’ll still have to work against Jakub Voracek and a talented defensive group. With Columbus the road team, the matchups figure to be stacked against them all night as Philadelphia uses the last change. This would certainly quality as an overall unfavorable matchup for the Blue Jacket offense, making them an offense to consider fading tonight.

Blue Jackets Special Teams Outlook
Unlike almost every other team in the league, the Jackets don’t salvage tough 5v5 matchups with power play usage. Columbus has been the worst power play team in hockey this season, posting league-worst rates of shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger shot attempts generated. As the Flyers have been an average unit on the penalty kill, they’re not going to help the Jackets get out of their own way when get a power play.

Blue Jackets Goaltending Outlook
Sergei Bobrovsky seems pretty dialed in at the moment. He has one poor game over his past five starts (a meltdown in Pittsburgh against a red hot Penguin offense) but allowed a combined five goals over his other four starts. The Flyers have a productive top six and their power play is a concern here, but otherwise their offensive metrics aren’t alarming. Columbus’s defense is very hit or miss and they’ve struggled a bit with high-danger shot attempts allowed over the last month, but Bobrovsky has game stealing ability.

Flyers Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 54.77 CF/60 (26) | 55.38 CA/60 (27) | 2.2 xGF/60 (21) | 2.12 xGA/60 (23)

The Flyers are yet another top heavy team. They have ugly offensive metrics as a whole, but they have a few key pieces that have been dependable options for DFS purposes. They don’t play an open game and their depth is questionable, so they aren’t a high-end offense.

They have a decent matchup on tap tonight, but it’s not an ideal spot for their top line due to home ice usage. When in Philly, the top line tends to play against opposing top threats. Tonight that means the Panarin line, and that group has been very responsible defensively in their own right. Otherwise, the Jackets have sprung a few leaks over the last month of play. Quality shot attempts allowed are coming in at one of the highest rates in the league during that time.

In a little over 100 minutes together at 5v5, the Columbus top line has a CF% of 57% with a CA/60 just over 52. Scoring chances are limited as well (27.39/60), so the top line of Sean Couturier, Claude Giroux, and Travis Konecny (if he’s healthy — he’s banged up) will likely have some difficulty drumming up overall attempts. The good news is that the Columbus top line has struggled with their teammates in suppressing high-danger shot attempts, so some quality looks should be available. This line has been the most dependable option for Philly all year. Taylor Leier looks to be the fill in for Konecny should he not be able to go, putting him on the value play big board (though the matchup isn’t the best). If Voracek were to somehow get reunited with this line, it would be one of the better line stacks available.

As it is, though, it seems unlikely Voracek jumps back to the top line. Too bad as that would be ideal for DFS purposes. Voracek will likely stay on the second line with Nolan Patrick and Jordan Weal, who is filling in for the injured Wayne Simmonds. Patrick is showing some signs of life but has overall looked out of place this year, and Weal is a solid ancillary player that is awfully cheap. This line has much more exploitable 5v5 matchup and contributes both Voracek and Patrick to the top power play unit.

Flyers Special Teams Outlook
The Blue Jackets can probably be considered a favorable matchup for the Flyers. Though they don’t go shorthanded often, their defensive shot metrics sit just outside the top ten for most generous to opposing power plays. The Flyers have been a strong team on the advantage this year, so they should have no problem creating quality looks when they get on the ice.

Flyers Goaltending Outlook
Welcome to Philadelphia, Petr Mrazek. As Brian Boucher has a TV gig and Roman Cechmanek is slightly out of gameshap, Ron Hextall ultimately decided against unretiring and instead traded for the former Red Wing. Mrazek was having a nice run for Detroit and will certainly appreciate playing behind the strong defense Philadelphia has in place. As he is in good form and goalies don’t have much of a system learning requirement, Mrazek is in play tonight. The Jackets should struggle to get a volume of high quality chances and Mrazek is cheap.

Blue Jackets Elite Plays: None
Blue Jackets Secondary Plays: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Boone Jenner, Seth Jones, Zach Werenski
Stackability: Orange
Goaltending: Orange / Yellow

Flyers Elite Plays: Sean Couturier, Jakub Voracek, Shayne Gostisbehere
Flyers Secondary Plays: Claude Giroux, Nolan Patrick, Jordan Weal, Ivan Provorov
Stackability: Yellow
Goaltending: Yellow