NHL Grind Down: Thursday, February 8th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-02-08 23:31:51 Premium Content Part of the product Combo Lite

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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

New York Islanders at Buffalo Sabres

New York Islanders					Buffalo Sabres
			Jaroslav Halak					Robin Lehner
			Record					Record
			26-22-6					14-29-10
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	3.30	3.63	20.36	74.21	Team Stats	2.26	3.28	16.56	78.21

Islanders Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 56.96 CF/60 (19) | 63.22 CA/60 (3) | 2.3 xGF/60 (13) | 2.54 xGA/60 (2)

Things haven’t been going too well for the Islanders of late. They are seeing some slippage in their offensive metrics, while at the same time hemorrhaging shots and scoring chances to the opposition. Since January 1, the Islanders are simply middle of the road in generating shot attempts and HD shot attempts at 5v5. They’re scoring chances generated are just among the ten best in rate per hour.

The offensive slowdown may continue a bit tonight in Buffalo. The Sabres are a low event team and they aren’t a defense we like to pick on. Despite their poor position in the standings, they don’t concede crooked numbers to opposing offenses. That’s especially true on home ice as they can scheme Ryan O’Reilly better. They are most exploitable in their depth, where New York also struggles.

There was some worry yesterday when Mathew Barzal was held out of practice, but it sounds like it was just a maintenance day for the electric rookie. He’s hitting something of a rookie wall, but remains a talent and should avoid O’Reilly at 5v5. He’s formed a strong bond with Jordan Eberle, and the two have recently added Anders Lee to their line. Anthony Beauvillier jumped up to join the top line with John Tavares and Josh Bailey. Tavares is pretty well certain to see O’Reilly at 5v5, so offensive production figures to be muted some at 5v5.

Islanders Special Teams Outlook
Buffalo’s penalty kill is right in the middle of the pack in terms of shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger shot attempts allowed. For the Islanders, a team that has been productive on the power play, this is a matchup that should be winnable. One issue is that the Sabres go shorthanded just under three times per game, so opportunities may be limited.

Islanders Goaltending Outlook
Jaroslav Halak has been a busy man. For the most part he is playing well, or as well as can be expected, given the defense in front of him. He has certainly been better than Thomas Greiss being the defensive wall full of leaks. The Sabres offense is not good by any stretch, so as far as matchups go, this is as good as it gets. Is it enough to make Halak a starter tonight? It’s not comforting that New York’s defense has been so bad, but Halak’s form might be just enough to keep him viable tonight. If looking for a value play, the starter at the other end of the ice may be a better route to go.