NHL Grind Down: Thursday, January 4th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-01-04 20:40:48 Premium Content Part of the product Core4

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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Florida Panthers at Boston Bruins

Florida Panthers					Boston Bruins
			James Reimer					Tuukka Rask
			Record					Record
			17-17-5					22-10-6
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.74	3.18	15.57	81.30	Team Stats	3.08	2.45	20.63	84.48

Panthers Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 56.26 CF/60 (19) | 60.73 CA/60 (5) | 2.18 xGF/60 (18) | 2.31 xGA/60 (13)

Note: With a blizzard hitting the northeast, keep an ear open to make sure this game isn’t postponed.

Florida’s offense doesn’t have a great matchup on tap tonight, as they deal with a Boston team playing extremely well and allowing very little at 5v5. The Bruins have a matchup nightmare (Bergeron line) and aren’t a favorable team to pick on. They limit scoring chances and high-danger shot attempts well, and Tuukka Rask is dialed in. For a below average offense like Florida, this is a spot to avoid.

The top line of Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau, and Evgenii Dadonov is going to get a fairly regular dose of the Bergeron tonic tonight. This is just about as bad as a matchup as it gets. To wit, the Bergeron allowed their first 5v5 goal last game, nearly halfway through the season. Pass on the Florida top line.

With Dadonov back on the top line, Vincent Trocheck is back to being on a second line island. He’s skating with Denis Malgin and Connor Brickley, a group that hasn’t produced a high volume of quality chances this year. Trocheck is best as a one-off or part of a power play stack, but he’s far from a must play in this matchup.

Panthers Special Teams Outlook
Boston’s penalty kill ratio of 84.2% is impressive, and it seems mostly legit. Under the hood, Boston penalty killers allow a mediocre number of overall shot attempts but they are elite in suppressing scoring chances and have been a top ten team in limiting high-danger shot attempts. Though Florida’s power play has done well this year, a stout penalty kill combined with a hot goalie and a team that doesn’t go shorthanded often don’t make for much of a matchup boost.