NHL Grind Down: Thursday, November 16th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2017-11-16 19:13:40 Premium Content Part of the product Core4

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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs

New Jersey Devils					Toronto Maple Leafs
			Cory Schneider					Frederik Andersen
			Record					Record
			11-4-2					12-7-0
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	3.47	3.12	25.00	80.28	Team Stats	3.74	3.32	23.08	80.60

Devils Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj) (17 games): 55.61 CF/60 (20) | 64.08 CA/60 (3) | 2.43 xGF/60 (10) | 2.72 xGA/60 (1)

New Jersey heads to Toronto to take part in a game that could be an up-tempo clash. Both teams have strong expected goal rates and lackluster defensive numbers. The Devils offense has seen their numbers dip of late, as their shot generation number is down around a bottom ten rate and their expected goals for rate is out of the top five (where it has resided).

Tonight’s matchup is decent but Toronto has slowed the game down a little bit. They still have a high expected goals allowed rate, but their shot attempts allowed number is at a respectable level. Toronto’s scoring chances allowed and high-danger shot attempts allowed ratios put them just outside the top ten in the league for most generous.

The Devils will likely get Travis Zajac back in the lineup tonight. It will be key to see where he slots in. Hopefully he won’t disrupt the strong line of Nico Hischier, Taylor Hall, and Kyle Palmieri. One issue tonight for this line — New Jersey’s best — is that they are going to draw the attention of Nazem Kadri and his line as well as Morgan Rielly on the blueline.

New Jersey’s secondary scorer are harder to trust. Miles Wood was a short slate hero a few nights ago but is not a realistic option most nights. Jesper Bratt and Drew Stafford could now be centered by Zajac with Adam Henrique moving down the third line. This line would benefit from avoiding Kadri but could have to contend with Auston Matthews being back in the lineup.

Devils Special Teams Outlook
The Maple Leafs go shorthanded about 3.5 times per game. That’s not an unusually high or low number compared to the rest of the league. Toronto’s penalty killers do a good job when they are on the ice, as the Leafs rank in the bottom third of the league for shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger shot attempts allowed. The Devils’ power play came to life a bit in their last game (at Chicago) but has otherwise been poor this year, generating a low number of shot attempts and scoring chances each game.

Devils Goaltending Outlook
Cory Schneider should benefit from the Maple Leafs taking their foot off the gas a bit of late, but this is still one of the least favorable draws there is. Despite their shot attempt numbers at 5v5 receding, the Leafs have a strong system in place and can pounce. They have the best expected goal rate at 5v5, and given New Jersey’s defensive woes and lethally high expected goals allowed rate, this is a bad spot for Schneider.

Maple Leafs Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj) (19 games): 58.19 CF/60 (16) | 57.82 CA/60 (17) | 2.7 xGF/60 (1) | 2.57 xGA/60 (4)

Toronto’s offense may be slowing things down some — their shot attempts at 5v5 are down towards the middle of the pack — but they are still a dangerous group. They remain one of the best teams at generating scoring chances at 5v5 and have the highest expected goal rate in the league.

The Devils don’t pose much a matchup concern tonight. New Jersey’s own open ended style of play has led to poor defensive numbers and Toronto is built to exploit this. There is a significant chance of a big game for the Leafs here as the team with the highest ranked expected goals rate hosts the team with the highest expected goals allowed rate.

Auston Matthews should be back in the lineup tonight which is a big boost for the Leafs offense. The lines should revert to the usual ones we’ve seen from early in the year (and last season). Matthews and William Nylander (with Zach Hyman) are a threat every single time they are on the ice and they will not be stopped by New Jersey. Note: Matthews will sit. This is a ding to the whole offense and helps New Jersey’s outlook a little bit. It also boosts the appeal of the Bozak line, discussed below

Nazem Kadri, Patrick Marleau, and Leo Komarov should see a matchup with the Hall line at 5v5. That’s about the only unfavorable matchup with the Devils, but it’s not a red-flag matchup. Kadri has been playing well of late and he and Marleau have shown a connection.

For tournaments the third line of Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk, and Mitch Marner are worth a look on this massive slate. They are certain to go overlooked on the slate in general and even on their own team. They play sheltered minutes so they will be out against New Jersey’s depth. With the Devils’ expected goal rate at 2.74 at 5v5, there is plenty of offense to go around. This line has great upside and they stick together on the power play.

Maple Leafs Special Teams Outlook
Toronto’s power play numbers are great this season, as they have been among the best in the league at generating scoring chances and high-danger shot attempts. New Jersey hasn’t stopped such shot attempts at a good or bad level, so this isn’t a matchup to downgrade the Toronto power play. Note that the Maple Leafs tend to give equal playing time to their top two power play units, so there plenty of 5v5 correlation plays at our disposal with this one.

Maple Leafs Goaltending Outlook
Frederik Andersen has posted back-to-back strong outings, so it looks like he’s beginning to stabilize a bit. He still lets in head scratching goals, and tonight’s matchup won’t be a cakewalk. The Devils may not drive play well, but like Toronto they can speed the game up and exploit defensive lapses. Toronto comes in to this one with an ugly expected goals allowed rate while New Jersey is a fringe top ten team in expected goals.

Devils Elite Plays: Taylor Hall
Devils Secondary Plays: Nico Hischier, Kyle Palmieri, Jesper Bratt
Stackability: Orange / Yellow
Goaltending: Red

Maple Leafs Elite Plays: Auston Matthews (if healthy), William Nylander, James van Riemsdyk
Maple Leafs Secondary Plays: Tyler Bozak, Mitch Marner, Nazem Kadri, Morgan Rielly
Stackability: Green
Goaltending: Yellow / Orange