NHL Grind Down: Thursday, November 9th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2017-11-10 03:57:01 Premium Content Part of the product Core4

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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Edmonton Oilers at New Jersey Devils

Edmonton Oilers					New Jersey Devils
			Cam Talbot					Cory Schneider
			Record					Record
			5-8-1					9-4-1
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.29	3.14	13.95	69.57	Team Stats	3.43	3.14	23.40	80.65

Oilers Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj) (14 games): 69.02 CF/60 (2) | 60.78 CA/60 (10) | 2.88 xGF/60 (1) | 2.26 xGA/60 (19)

Edmonton continues to fail to realize their lofty offensive expectations, but the offense has a matchup on tap that could help them boost actual numbers. New Jersey’s defense is certainly susceptible to fast paced offenses, and Edmonton has the tools to turn this one into a track meet. Most notably, the Devils do not have a player on their roster that has shutdown capabilities, let alone the goods to slow Connor McDavid. It’s a favorable matchup all around, though hesitation is understandable as Edmonton’s offense has let down.

Through the struggles, there is one line that has been a consistent, high-end producer. Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Patrick Maroon are full go in this game. There have been rumblings that the line could be split up to spread the wealth and spur the secondary scorers, but for now the line sticks. This is a matchup that should allow Edmonton’s best line to flourish.

It’s the secondary scorers that have been the problem for Edmonton this year, and even in a favorable matchup they remain tournament plays versus cash game assets. The questions are compounded with Drake Caggiula out the lineup, shortly after seeing his role expand. Milan Lucic has looked washed and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins hasn’t been a strong offensive weapon for the Oilers. Ryan Strome has been destroyed at 5v5 and his offense is suffering as a result. With Jossi Jokinen on his wing perhaps the possession numbers improve. There’s not a lot to like individually here, so despite the matchup and the unrealized goal production per the fancy stats, Edmonton’s secondary scorers are deeper tournament plays.

One reason that the Oilers have posted lofty shot attempt numbers with unrealized goal potential is due to filtering shots back to the blueline. That strategy does give us a few DFS relevant blueliners. Oscar Klefbom is a high volume shooter, and Darnell Nurse is becoming a Klefbom-lite floor play. Given that New Jersey has an elevated CA/60 number, the shot attempts should be available and thus Klefbom and Nurse (GPP) are relevant.

Oilers Special Teams Outlook
The Devils have gone a good job on the penalty kill this year, as they really have not allowed a high volume of shot attempts or scoring chances to opposing power plays. The Oilers’ power play is clicking at just 14% this year, good for 26th in the league. As at 5v5, the shot generation numbers are strong. Sure enough, Edmonton’s top two iCF/60 skaters on the power play are Kris Russel and Oscar Klefbom (though Russel’s PP TOI is low). Two of the three leader in individual quality shot attempts won’t be partaking in this game (Caggiula – injured; Yamamoto – banished). So, there are some structural issues on the man advantage as well as at 5v5. Milan Lucic has done well individually on the power play, as he has been skating on the surprisingly more productive power play unit (with Ryan Strome, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl, and Matthew Benning). This unit gets a minority of the PP TOI share, though.

Oilers Goaltending Outlook
Cam Talbot did well in a tough game against the New York Islanders, and the Edmonton defense remains a surprisingly high-functioning unit. New Jersey’s offense will likely welcome back Kyle Palmieri to the lineup and they have been a dangerous unit to this point in the year. They may not drive play well or generate a high number of shot attempts, but they play fast and can pile on quality attempts. The low volume and thus floor, combined with a quick and dangerous offense, makes Talbot risky tonight.

Devils Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj) (14 games): 55.55 CF/60 (20) | 64.38 CA/60 (1) | 2.51 xGF/60 (8) | 2.79 xGA/60 (1)

Thankfully the Devils don’t hard match their lines against the opposition’s best. Or, more specifically, thankfully the top scoring line won’t have to spend most of their night against the McDavid line. We don’t want New Jersey’s top line getting bogged down and sucked in the vortex that is the McDavid Effect.

Like Edmonton, New Jersey only has one real line that inspires confidence for DFS purposes. Taylor Hall, Niso Hischier, and now potentially Kyle Palmieri are a high-end line. Palmieri is returning from a long injury layoff and figures to need a show-me game, but is still viable tonight. Hischier and Hall are really clicking, and they have explosive upside despite poor possession numbers. As they should work mostly against Edmonton’s non-McDavid lines, they figure to be their dangerous selves.

Especially with Marcus Johansson still unlikely to play, the Devils secondary scoring group isn’t a highly appealing bunch. Rookie Jesper Bratt has been productive, but he’s overachieving at the moment and gets a downgrade away from Hall. Keep an eye on him should he get back on the top line for Palmieri. Adam Henrique and Drew Stafford round out the second line. This is the definition of boring secondary scorers and aren’t great options on this slate as they could see a fair amount of McDavid.

Things are even worse down in the bottom six. The Devils also don’t offer much on the blueline outside of Will Butcher. He doesn’t have a goal yet and doesn’t shoot much, but moves the puck well and has 12 assists through 14 games.

Devils Special Teams Outlook
Edmonton has done a great job staying out of the penalty box this season, averaging a hair above three shorthanded instances per night. New Jersey’s power play opportunity number on a per game basis is consistent. When on the advantage, the Devils haven’t generated any impressive volume of shot attempts, scoring chances, or high-danger shot attempts. It’s too bad, too, as the Oilers penalty killers have an elevated high-danger shot attempt allowed number, and the scoring chance number is elevated as well.

Devils Goaltending Outlook
Cory Schneider is playing well for the Devils right now even if the wins aren’t rolling in. He has a dangerous set up tonight as New Jersey sports the worst xGA/60 number. At the same time, Edmonton enters with one of the top xGF/60 numbers at 5v5. Though the Oilers may never reach their expected goal number, the massive rift between expectation (2.88) and actual (1.88) indicates at least some regression is owed them. As such, this is not a matchup Schneider can be used comfortably in.

Oilers Elite Plays: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Oscar Klefbom
Oilers Secondary Plays: Patrick Maroon, Milan Lucic, Darnell Nurse
Stackability: Yellow
Goaltending: Orange

Devils Elite Plays: Taylor Hall, Nico Hischier
Devils Secondary Plays: Kyle Palmieri, Will Butcher
Stackability: Orange
Goaltending: Red