NHL Grind Down: Thursday, October 26th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2017-10-26 21:15:38 Premium Content Part of the product SimLabs+

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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

San Jose Sharks at Boston Bruins

San Jose Sharks					Boston Bruins
			Martin Jones					Anton Khudobin
			Record					Record
			4-4-0					3-3-1
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.88	2.75	22.58	88.89	Team Stats	3.43	3.71	30.00	82.14

Sharks Offensive Outlook

2016-17 5v5 (adj): 58.63 CF/60 (5) | 54.34 CA/60 (14) | 2.34 xGF/60 (8) | 2.15 xGA/60 (16)

Joe Thornton will return to Boston tonight with his Sharks playing well on the East Coast. They went two for three against the New York City area teams and will look to keep their good play going a little further north. The Sharks have been a good road team over the past few years.

The Bruins numbers to start the season are respectable considering they were without Patrice Bergeron for a majority of the time. They have the eight lowest 5v5 xGA/60 and were one of the toughest teams to play against last season. They clamped down on opposing opportunity and shot quality for opposing forwards, leading to muted shot totals and a low floor/ceiling DFS combination.

It’s hard to get too excited by the top line of Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski, and Joonas Donskoi as they will be heavily shadowed by Bergeron and the top Boston line. This is one of if not the worst 5v5 matchups. Given Thornton’s low shooting rate, he has no floor tonight individually while a line stack is risky.

The second line of Logan Couture, Tomas Hertl, and Melker Karlsson should benefit from David Krejci missing the game. The matchup remains subpar, however, as Boston’s system remains a tough nut to crack. There are some areas where Boston has struggled so it’s not as poor as Thornton’s matchup, but it’s still far from a sure thing. This line has been decent driving play and will actually get a matchup upgrade with David Backes replacing Pastrnak on the second line.

San Jose’s best on-ice matchup will be the third line, especially as it should see plenty of Boston’s third. This group has poor possession numbers relative to the team and has been pushed around a fair amount (albeit with Backes at times). The problem is Chris Tierney, Kevin Labanc, and Mikkel Boedker don’t have a high ceiling or floor on their own.

The Sharks would benefit from Tuukka Rask sitting one more night as he is close to returning. Anton Khudobin would be a matchup upgrade to help take the sting off the 5v5 on-ice matchups.

Sharks Special Teams Outlook
Boston retains their shot miser ways when shorthanded, ranking at or near the bottom of the league in shorthanded shot attempts allowed, high-danger shot attempts allowed, and scoring chances allowed. Though San Jose has a strong power play top unit, there’s not a lot here to pump the tires of the San Jose forwards. Again, there are some better matchups that warrant attention tonight.

Sharks Goaltending Outlook
Martin Jones has played well during the Sharks’ migration east. He slowed a hot New Jersey Devil offense and then posted a strong game against the New York Rangers. He’s a streaky goalie that has now posted four straight strong outings.

Boston’s numbers to start the year are muted a bit but should be taken with a few grains of salt as Patrice Bergeron has only played in two of seven games. Jones will be working against a very dangerous top line, David Pastrnak on the second line, and a few capable scorers in the depth rankings. San Jose is built pretty similarly to Boston and has some strong defensive numbers in their own rate, making Jones a viable if risky road warrior start tonight against a Bruins offense that can disappear in tougher matchups.

Bruins Offensive Outlook

2016-17 5v5 (adj): 60.75 CF/60 (1) | 49.33 CA/60 (30) | 2.32 xGF/60 (9) | 1.9 xGA/60 (27)

With Patrice Bergeron back in the fold, the Bruins offense is starting to look a bit more like the unit from last season that was one of the best at driving and dominating play. The team still has an expected goals-for that lags the league average, but that should start to tick up moving forward.

Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand remain one of the best duos in the league at driving play. They are more or less matchup proof at this point. Flanked by Anders Bjork, this line should spend most of their 5v5 time against San Jose’s top line. While Thornton isn’t the beast of yesteryear, he remains a strong possession player. He and his linemates all have on-ice CF% around 55%, in line with Bergeron and Marchand’s. It’s a pure strength versus strength matchup, making both lines at least a little bit risky here.

With David Krejci injured and out of the lineup, David Backes will get a promotion to center David Pastrnak. Backes is just returning from an injury of his own but has poor possession numbers at this stage of his career. Not that Krejci is Bergeron 2.0, but it’s something of a downgrade for Pastrnak. This line also has a tougher than expected matchup against the Couture line, who has posted strong CA/60 on-ice numbers at 5v5.

Frank Vatrano remains a possible punt play on the third line, but his shot attempts — his bread and butter — aren’t hitting the net at the moment. He’ll turn it around at some point due to his high iCF/60. Torey Krug is a more expensive yet similar case, as his shot volume is down and his floor is off from his price a bit. Charlie McAvoy is a lower cost way to get some exposure to Boston’s offense.

Bruins Special Teams Outlook
While the special teams matchup isn’t a slam-dunk, the Bruins’ power play does have something of an exploitable matchup against the Sharks’ penalty kill. San Jose doesn’t allow a high volume of shot attempts and the Boston power play doesn’t take them, but San Jose’s high-danger shot attempts are elevated comparatively while so too are Boston’s attempts on such shots.

David Krejci’s absence doesn’t impact the top unit of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, Kenny Agostino, and Torey Krug. Marchand is the top shooter in terms of iHDCF/60 on the power play. The second unit gets overlooked, but both Riley Nash and David Backes have done a good job individually attempting high-danger shot attempts. Backes in particular has some appeal tonight as he’ll be centering Pastrnak at 5v5 and could come through in a strength versus weakness power play matchup.

Bruins Goaltending Outlook
Tuukka Rask should be back in the cage tonight, but he hasn’t exactly been the Tuukka of old. His all situation save percentage is quite poor, but he has started slow the last few seasons. Coming off an injury and in bad form, he’s tough to deploy tonight against a Sharks offense that has plenty of weapons. Anton Khudobin, should Rask not be ready, can’t be trusted against San Jose.

Sharks Elite Plays: Brent Burns
Sharks Secondary Plays: Logan Couture, Tomas Hertl, Kevin Labanc (GPP)
Stackability: Orange
Goaltending: Orange

Bruins Elite Plays: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand
Bruins Secondary Plays: David Backes, Frank Vatrano (GPP)
Stackability: Orange
Goaltending: Red / Orange