NHL Grind Down: Tuesday, February 13th
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable
Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.
Los Angeles Kings at Carolina Hurricanes
|Los Angeles Kings||Carolina Hurricanes|
|Jonathan Quick||Cam Ward|
|Team Stats||2.85||2.42||18.99||84.57||Team Stats||2.64||2.91||18.75||80.15|
5v5 (adj): 57.22 CF/60 (18) | 56.71 CA/60 (22) | 2.11 xGF/60 (25) | 2.28 xGA/60 (16)
Two of the more renowned 5v5 possession teams meet up in Carolina tonight. Unfortunately, the Kings haven’t been holding up their side of the matchup as they have lagged at 5v5 this year. They are now an average or worse offense, and they have devolved into a one-line team without Jeff Carter.
They have an issue on their hands, then, when they meet up with the Hurricanes. Carolina remains one of the “analytical darlings” as they have an elite 5v5 CF% (53.61%, second best). Their defense has the second lowest rate of shot attempts allowed and their expected goal rate remains in the bottom third of the league.
All of these factors point to trouble for the Kings tonight. It will be interesting to see if the top line of Tyler Toffoli, Anze Kopitar, Alex Iafallo stay together for much longer or if Kopitar-Toffoli are split. They are clearly the two best options on the forward group, and having them on the same line opens the door to matchup exploitation. Look for this line to see time against the Staal line for Carolina, so the matchup will be difficult.
Away from the Kopitar line, options become low ceiling and low floor plays. Tanner Pearson is working with Adrian Kempe on the second line, but there isn’t a huge spark there with Toffoli no longer working with this duo. Additionally, note that the Hurricanes have a strong blueline and multiple forwards with positive defensive impacts, so the matchup difficult doesn’t get much easier the further down the lineup we go.
Kings Special Teams Outlook
Los Angeles has been fine on the power play this year, but they may not get the opportunity to show it tonight. The ‘Canes remain the premier teams at staying out of the box, going shorthanded just 2.4 times per game on average. When they are killing penalties, Carolina hasn’t been so hot defensively, so there door is open to LA for power play production when they can get on the ice. Overall, the limited opportunities versus the soft defense wash out and it doesn’t quite become a favorable matchup.
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