NHL Grind Down: Tuesday, February 27th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-02-28 04:01:48 Premium Content Part of the product Combo Lite

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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals

Ottawa Senators					Washington Capitals
			Mike Condon					Philipp Grubauer
			Record					Record
			21-30-10					35-21-7
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.69	3.44	16.58	75.28	Team Stats	3.08	2.95	21.74	80.00

Senators Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 55.8 CF/60 (22) | 65.02 CA/60 (1) | 2.06 xGF/60 (27) | 2.43 xGA/60 (5)

After declining to trade Erik Karlsson yesterday, the Senators will at least finish out the season with their bluechip blueliner. Tonight the Senators get something of a favorable matchup in Washington as the Capitals haven’t been a good defensive team this year. They are allowing a good deal of shot attempts and scoring chances at 5v5, and their penalty kill has struggled as well.

Can the Senators take advantage? Though they don’t have Derick Brassard anymore, they do still have Mike Hoffman, Matt Duchene, Mark Stone, and Karlsson. That’s a good enough core most nights (for DFS purposes) even though the system isn’t helping anything. The main issue here is that the Capitals tend to play better at home, so the crooked defensive metrics aren’t really as favorable as they may seem.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau got a promotion with Brassard’s exit, as he will now center the second line with Stone and Ryan Dzingel. Matt Duchene and Mike Hoffman, along with Magnus Paajarvi, will likely be the focus of the Backstrom line at 5v5. Stone does see a bit of a net loss swapping Pageau for Brassard at center. For stacking purposes Stone is on something of an island, making the Duchen-Hoffman a bit more attractive. They also have power play correlation.

Senators Special Teams Outlook
Part of the reason there has to be at least some optimism with Ottawa’s big names tonight is that they do get a favorable draw on the power play. Washington’s defensive woes have carried over to the penalty kill, as the team sits just inside the top ten for most generous rates of shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger shot attempts. It may be a bit too cute on a nine game slate, but there is certainly the potential for the Senators to score a few goals tonight between their favorable 5v5 and power play draws.

Senators Goaltending Outlook
While some cautious optimism is warranted for the offense, it quickly dissipates when talking goalies for Ottawa. Washington certainly doesn’t have strong 5v5 offensive metrics, but Ottawa’s defensive rates are unappealing in their own right. This is a good enough matchup where Washington’s top six should find plenty of soft spots, and between Craig Anderson and Mike Condon struggling all season, there’s not a lot to like.

Capitals Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 55.46 CF/60 (23) | 59.81 CA/60 (9) | 2.16 xGF/60 (22) | 2.53 xGA/60 (3)

The Caps have mostly been a disappointing offense (Great 8 excepted), but it’s hard to not like them on home ice with a porous defense in town. The Senators struggle defensively in all areas of the ice, and the public perception on the team is so sour that the players have to be in negative spaces. After a magical Cup run last year, the season is lost and it’s a slow crawl to April.

Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin, and Tom Wilson have very solid upside tonight. Though the team as a whole doesn’t push play well, this line has been just fine in that regard. Ideally you’d like to see more individual shooting and finish between Backstrom and Wilson, but Ovechkin is a plug and play in cash. Backstrom and Ovi give some nice power play upside in a favorable draw.

Evgeny Kuznetsov and T.J. Oshie haven’t had a great season under the hood. Kuznetsov has a fine point total on the year but goals have been hard to come by for Oshie. Brett Connolly has recently joined this line at the expense of Jakub Vrana, who hasn’t tapped into the potential discussed about him. Like Wilson, Connolly is something of an also-ran for this line and Kuznetsov-Oshie offer power play correlation. They come a bit cheaper than the top line duo, too, and will be less owner for GPP pivots. Even Chandler Stephenson, Lars Eller, and Andre Burakovsky could be an option as the Ottawa bottom six falls off fast.