NHL Grind Down: Tuesday, January 16th

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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

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Stackability Rating System (Offense):
Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

St. Louis Blues at Toronto Maple Leafs

St. Louis Blues Toronto Maple Leafs
Article Image Jake Allen Article Image Frederik Andersen
Record Record
26-17-3 25-17-3
Stats GF/GP GA/GP PP% PK% Stats GF/GP GA/GP PP% PK%
Team Stats 2.85 2.65 15.03 81.56 Team Stats 3.16 2.89 21.09 83.80

Blues Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 59.47 CF/60 (15) | 56.02 CA/60 (25) | 2.17 xGF/60 (20) | 1.97 xGA/60 (31)

The Blues come out of their bye week with a road draw in Toronto against the Leafs. On the surface it isn’t a terrible matchup for the Blues, as the Leafs are a moderate to high event team most nights. They have slightly elevated numbers of shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger shot attempts allowed at 5v5. Since December 1, Toronto has been a fringe top ten team in all such categories allowed at 5v5, so after a brief lull they are back to seeing volume on both ends of the ice at 5v5.

Over the same time, the Blues have been a mediocre offense. They are right about middle of the pack in terms of offensive chances and attempts generated at 5v5. They are certainly missing Jaden Schwartz who looks close to returning but isn’t quite there yet.

Tonight, look for the top line of Paul Stastny, Vladimir Tarasenko, and Ivan Barbashev to see Nazem Kadri and Morgan Rielly at 5v5. Though Kadri’s line hasn’t been as stingy as in prior years, this is still something of an unfavorable matchup. Basically, the Blues’ top line should expect to see limited quality chances, but overall quantity should be available.

The second line is likely to figure Brayden Schenn playing between Tage Thompson and Dmitrij Jaskin, with Alexander Steen playing on the third line. The Schenn line will likely get matched by the Matthews line for Toronto. This isn’t a terrible matchup by any means, as the Matthews line has been vulnerable to high-danger shot attempts allowed. Unfortunately, Schenn’s line in its current state hasn’t generated them at a high level. Steen will likely work against the Bozak line, a group with good defensive metrics but one that typically sees sheltered assignments.

As a whole — and especially with Frederik Andersen in net and playing well — the Blues shape up as a secondary option tonight.

Blues Special Teams Outlook
Tonight’s special team’s matchup isn’t great for the Blues. Their power play numbers are mostly middle of the road, and the Leafs have been a top ten team in limiting attempts and chances while shorthanded. Additionally, the Leafs don’t go shorthanded at an overly high rate at 3.2 times per game on average.

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About the Author

benwell311
Ben (benwell311)

Ben has been playing fantasy hockey since the turn of the century, focusing on NHL DFS over the past three seasons. He has previously written hockey content for eDraft and The Fake Hockey. Feel free to reach out with questions, comments, and memes on Twitter @Benwell_B.