NHL Grind Down: Tuesday, January 2nd

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-01-03 00:47:19 Premium Content Part of the product SimLabs+

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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Boston Bruins at New York Islanders

Boston Bruins					New York Islanders
			Tuukka Rask					Thomas Greiss
			Record					Record
			21-10-6					20-15-4
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	3.03	2.49	21.14	83.93	Team Stats	3.44	3.54	21.21	73.95

Bruins Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 60.78 CF/60 (7) | 52.58 CA/60 (30) | 2.37 xGF/60 (12) | 2.01 xGA/60 (27)

Boston’s offense is on a tear at the moment, and impressively it hasn’t been the elite top line that has been doing the heavy lifting. With multiple scoring lines contributing and a weak Islander defense/goaltending combination on tap, Boston should keep the goods rolling.

Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak, and Brad Marchand command the most attention, but they have been quiet lately as the party rages in the middle six. Expect this line to see a fair amount of the Tavares line for New York, though it likely won’t be hard matched. It’s a winnable lineup for the Bruins top line. The one concern here is that this group puts up much better quality scoring numbers on home ice compared to on the road.

David Krejci, Jake DeBrusk, and Ryan Spooner have been playing at a high level of late, but their underlying numbers don’t jump off the page (though they are generating 62+ shot attempts per hour at 5v5).

White hot David Backes and Riley Nash, along with Danton Heinen, form the third scoring line and have been equally impressive of late. In a much larger sample, this line has been outstanding: 67+ CF/60, ~36 SCF/60, and ~14 HDCF/60 while playing well defensively. The Islanders are surely aware of this and can counter them by using the Barzal line against them, which seems probable. There’s also rising ownership on this line nightly and some number chasing happen, so consider those factors if stacking in tournaments.

Bruins Special Teams Outlook
Boston’s power play numbers are strong in terms of scoring chances generated, but shot attempt quantity and quality is poor. The matchup with New York’s penalty kill is certainly favorable as they have struggled to suppress shot attempts and scoring chances while clamping down on high-danger shot attempts. Note that over the past three games, Boston’s top line’s monopoly on power play time has been slipping and more secondary scorers are seeing time on the advantage.