NHL Grind Down: Tuesday, January 30th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-01-31 01:22:17 Premium Content Part of the product Combo Lite

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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Minnesota Wild at Columbus Blue Jackets

Minnesota Wild					Columbus Blue Jackets
			Devan Dubnyk					Sergei Bobrovsky
			Record					Record
			26-18-5					27-19-3
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.90	2.84	19.87	82.32	Team Stats	2.55	2.73	13.67	77.52

Wild Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 52.21 CF/60 (30) | 59.78 CA/60 (8) | 2.06 xGF/60 (26) | 1.91 xGA/60 (30)

The Wild are a tough offense to gauge. No, they don’t have good 5v5 numbers whatsoever. They’re actually… really bad. Like really bad. *Stephen A Smith voice * HOWEVER… they have a good top six and some solid forwards in that group and in the end that’s all we care about in DFS.

Tonight’s matchup isn’t a bad one, necessarily, as the Blue Jackets have been a bit vulnerable defensively at 5v5. They’re slowing their game down but they have a high expected goal rate due to some quality control issues. They don’t really have any major matchup concerns. That said, given how poor Minnesota’s offensive numbers have looked, they shouldn’t be too high on the totem pole tonight.

It’s hard to note like the line of Mikko Koivu, Mikael Granlund, and Jason Zucker. This is one of those lines that has nice balance to it, from driving play to play making to raw shot volume. They should be able to find success against a relatively soft Columbus defense, but again, they aren’t a top tier option tonight.

With Nino Niederreiter out another game, Eric Staal, Zach Parise, and Daniel Winnik are the second best option for Minnesota. Staal continues to get it done but Parise hasn’t really looked right. They aren’t nearly as reliable or dangerous as the Koivu line, so they are clear second fiddle Wild.

Wild Special Teams Outlook
The Blue Jackets have been among the least penalized teams in the NHL this year, going shorthanded just 2.6 times per game on average. Columbus plays middle of the road defense while shorthanded but that doesn’t matter much with the team going shorthanded so infrequently. Minnesota has been decent to good on the power play — they rank seventh in HDCF/60 — but the lack of opportunity keeps this from being much of a favorable matchup.

Wild Goaltending Outlook
Your guess is as good as mine as to what kind of performance Devan Dubnyk gives us tonight. It will either be good or very, very bad. He’s playing behind a defense that allows a high quantity of shot attempts but severely clamps down on the quality allowed. In theory he should be the perfect fantasy netminder. In practice, his landmine games are night enders. Columbus does not have strong 5v5 offensive numbers over the past month, but they are on home ice and did get Cam Atkinson back. Dubnyk should be treated with caution despite his strong defense and middle of the road matchup.

Blue Jackets Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 59.63 CF/60 (15) | 57.5 CA/60 (19) | 2.44 xGF/60 (8) | 2.33 xGA/60 (10)

Columbus has a high year-to-date expected goal rate at 5v5, but they haven’t been the same offense over the past four to six weeks as they had been early in the year. They don’t play as fast and their shot generation numbers are in the middle of the road or worse in the past month. They have the seventh worst scoring chances-for per hour at 5v5 during that time frame.

Their matchup is an odd one for analytical purposes. It would seem it’s not favorable, as though the Wild don’t carry play well and allow a very high rate of shot attempts, they don’t allow much in the way of scoring chances or shot attempt quality. So basically Columbus should expect to generate a good volume of shot attempts of lower quality. That’s typically not ideal, but it’s gone well for other teams due to the struggles of Dubnyk. Sounds like a chapter in the Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe.