NHL Grind Down: Wednesday, December 27th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2017-12-28 04:50:00 Premium Content Part of the product SimLabs+

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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Buffalo Sabres at New York Islanders

Buffalo Sabres					New York Islanders
			Robin Lehner					Jaroslav Halak
			Record					Record
			9-20-7					19-13-4
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.12	3.31	12.26	82.14	Team Stats	3.51	3.50	22.76	73.58

Sabres Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 50.39 CF/60 (31) | 57.84 CA/60 (16) | 1.77 xGF/60 (31) | 2.18 xGA/60 (21)

The lowly Sabre offense travels to Long Island for a matchup that may appear favorable, but is likely one where Buffalo should still struggle. New York’s defense is a bit exploitable on the whole as they have been slightly above middle of the pack in generosity, but it can’t be overstated how poor Buffalo’s offense has been.

While it’s a positive development that the Sabres have consolidated their talent in their top six, the two lines will each see a fair amount of playing time against the Barzal line for New York. That line has been outstanding at 5v5 and very good defensively. Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart, and Zemgus Girgensons will likely avoid the majority of their 5v5 ice time being against the Barzal line, which is good news. Reinhart hasn’t been a great shooter, but he is a good linemate as he pushes play well. Still, this line is hard to trust. Eichel’s shot volume is the only saving grace as New York’s goaltenders have been horrendous.

Ryan O’Reilly might be back for the Sabres after he missed the past few games due to personal reasons. He should slide back into the second line center role between Evander Kane and Kyle Okposo. Outside of system issues, there’s no reason this line shouldn’t be better. As it stands, though, the numbers haven’t been great and a matchup with the Barzal line pretty much limits their upside.

Sabres Special Teams Outlook
Some good news for Buffalo is that their special teams matchup is promising. The Islanders only go shorthanded about three times per game, a slightly unfavorable rate, but they have sure struggled while shorthanded. The team’s among the worst in the league in suppressing shot attempts and scoring chances, though they keep the looks allowed to lower danger areas. Buffalo’s power play numbers are middle of the road, but they should be good enough to get some shot volume on a struggling New York netminder.