NHL Grind Down: Wednesday, November 22nd

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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

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Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

New York Rangers at Carolina Hurricanes

New York Rangers Carolina Hurricanes
Article Image Henrik Lundqvist Article Image Scott Darling
Record Record
10-9-2 9-6-4
Stats GF/GP GA/GP PP% PK% Stats GF/GP GA/GP PP% PK%
Team Stats 3.14 3.14 22.67 81.43 Team Stats 2.95 2.68 15.38 80.85

Rangers Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj) (21 games): 54.44 CF/60 (24) | 60.95 CA/60 (6) | 2.65 xGF/60 (3) | 2.75 xGA/60 (1)

The Rangers, unlike many other teams, are purely a quality versus quantity team. It’s kind of refreshing to see the discrepancy in their 5v5 CF/60 compared to their quality shot attempts produced and ultimately their elite xGF/60. This is a team that should get pummelled at 5v5 but they find a way to get their looks each night, nevermind the bollocks (aka low danger shots).

Tonight, however, they are in a tough spot. They will absolutely be doing plenty of chasing against the Hurricanes, who are among the best possession teams in the league. They pile up shot attempts left and right, and the Rangers don’t suppress them so well. Carolina also defends well, so they will limit New York’s breakouts. This isn’t a good spot to look at the Rangers.

With multiple lines flashing dominant possession numbers for Carolina, the best bet to win their 5v5 matchup figures to be Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, and Pavel Buchnevich. They’re also going to get the rockstar treatment in Carolina, making their night difficult at 5v5.

Ryan McDonagh is going to miss this game, so the Rangers will be even more pressured in their own zone. It sets up for a low event, play-from-behind night for the Rangers.

Rangers Special Teams Outlook
The Hurricanes are outstanding staying out of the box, leading the league in fewest times shorthanded by a wide margin. Going down a man less than 2.5 times per game on average, the Rangers aren’t guaranteed to see more than a couple power play opportunities. Carolina hasn’t been great while killing penalties, however, allowing a high rate of scoring chances and posting the worst HDCA/60. New York’s power play posts metrics right around the median so they aren’t an overpowering unit, and they figure to see a low volume of opportunity.

Rangers Goaltending Outlook
We’ll start with the positive: Henrik Lundqvist will face plenty of shots on goal tonight. That’s about it. He’s going to be under siege all night. Carolina’s offense tends to pump up the volume without the goals materializing, but given how bad New York’s defense is — and how bad it will be without McDonagh — this is a nightmare scenario for Lundqvist against an overwhelming offense.

Hurricanes Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj) (19 games): 69.33 CF/60 (1) | 54.88 CA/60 (27) | 2.36 xGF/60 (12) | 2.11 xGA/60 (24)

This is an A+ setup for the Hurricanes, and is certainly one of the best mismatches of the night. We’ll keep it short as Carolina has three viable lines tonight. They’ll be going against a porous Ranger defense that will be missing it’s best defender.

New York has allowed oodles of scoring chances, shot attempts, and high-danger shot attempts. The Hurricanes can bring all three of those things, especially raw shot attempt volume. They should spend ample time in the New York zone.

Always the line tinkerers, keep an eye on how the final line assignments shake out. The top line should be kept together as they have been elite: Jordan Staal, Sebastian Aho, and Teuvo Teravainen. Aho is on fire right now and getting positive regression after not scoring for the first month. This line should see a fair amount of the Zibanejad line, but it’s still a fine matchup.

Jeff Skinner could put 10 shots on goal tonight. He’s skating on a line with Elias Lindholm and Phillip DiGuiseppe. It’s sneaky line for production as Lindholm can produce, and DiGuiseppe is a well regarded if raw prospect. The second line of Justin Williams, Derek Ryan, and Brock McGinn has strong possession numbers so while they aren’t the best finishers, they should generate plenty of chances.

All of the regular Carolina defenders are in play tonight. Justin Faulk has the highest upside, but even the lower floor guys like Noah Hanifin (who has been playing quite well) and Jaccob Slavin should come through.

Hurricanes Special Teams Outlook
Oof. The Rangers have allowed a top three number of scoring chances and high-danger shot attempts while killing penalties. The Hurricanes power play has been poor overall, ranking near the bottom ten teams in the league in generating such attempts. Still, the Rangers are going to continue to give up tons of looks to the Canes. Also, note that Ryan McDonagh saw a more than immaterial amount of penalty kill time.

Hurricanes Goaltending Outlook
Scott Darling has been quite up and down this year. He’s got a good team in front of him and the win bonus seems like it is in play, so the floor should be there. The problem is that when looking at the Rangers, CF% isn’t enough. This team finds ways to consistently generate scoring chances night after night and have one of the highest expected goal rates. They should struggle more than usual tonight though, as Carolina has three strong lines which negates New York’s strength — rolling multiple lines at 5v5.

Rangers Elite Plays: None
Rangers Secondary Plays: Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, Pavel Buchnevich
Stackability: Red
Goaltending: Red

Hurricanes Elite Plays: Jeff Skinner, Jordan Staal, Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen, Justin Faulk
Hurricanes Secondary Plays: Elias Lindholm, Justin Williams, Noah Hanifin, Jaccob Slavin
Stackability: Green
Goaltending: Yellow

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About the Author

benwell311
Ben (benwell311)

Ben has been playing fantasy hockey since the turn of the century, focusing on NHL DFS over the past three seasons. He has previously written hockey content for eDraft and The Fake Hockey. Feel free to reach out with questions, comments, and memes on Twitter @Benwell_B.