San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Padres vs. Dodgers Odds
| Padres Odds | +160 |
| Dodgers Odds | -185 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Date | Thu, Mar. 21 |
| Time | 6:05 a.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
On Thursday, the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers will conclude their mini two-game series in Seoul. Joe Musgrove will be on the bump for the Padres, looking to get his 2024 campaign started off on a high note after throwing only 97 innings last year. Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be making his MLB debut for the Dodgers after inking a 12-year, $325 million contract this past winter.
Ahead of first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Dodgers as heavy -185 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 8.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
San Diego Padres
Joe Musgrove to make 2024 debut
Joe Musgrove had a highly unusual 2023. His injuries included missing the beginning of the season after dropping a kettlebell on his left big toe, hurting his right shoulder while fielding a bunt, and burning his feet on the turf in Mexico because he wasn’t wearing any shoes or socks. He also dealt with elbow bursitis late in the year and had inflammation in his shoulder capsule.
Despite all of that, Musgrove posted a 3.05 ERA, 3.11 xERA, 3.52 FIP, and 1.14 WHIP last season. He ranked in the 80th percentile or better in average exit velocity allowed and hard-hit% allowed. He struck out more batters than the league average pitcher, walked fewer batters than the league average pitcher, and ranked in the 70th percentile in ground ball rate.
Only 20 starting pitchers last season had better than a 6.5 BB% and induced ground balls more often than the league-average pitcher. From that list, 19 pitchers had a 4.03 FIP or better, and 10 had a 3.56 FIP or better. The floor is high for Musgrove in 2024 if he’s healthy and continues to throw strikes on a frequent basis.
San Diego offense offers mixed results to open new season
San Diego undeniably has a top-heavy lineup heading into 2024. Big names like Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis, and Manny Machado at the top of the order give this group a stable core of contributors, but the rest of their offense is likely to struggle to make loud contact this season.
Jake Cronenworth, Ha-Seong Kim, Jurickson Profar, and Tyler Wade were each outside the top-100 in xwOBA against all pitch types in 2023. Jackson Merrill is one of the youngest center fielders in MLB history.
This group is going to go as far as their core will take them this summer. They have an extremely tough task in front of them against Yoshinobu Yamamoto on Thursday. San Diego’s one saving grace is that they are likely to make a lot of contact. There’s always the possibility that they could BABIP Yamamoto to death in this spot – especially if the new-look Los Angeles defense experiences any struggles.
Michael King likely to piggyback Joe Musgrove
After using 7 relievers on Wednesday, the Padres are highly likely to use Michael King in a long-relief role on Thursday following Joe Musgrove.
Since the beginning of 2022, King has been one of the better overall pitchers in the league, posting a 2.60 ERA, 2.84 FIP, and 1.10 WHIP across 155.2 innings in a hybrid role that included 9 starts and 74 relief appearances. His career has really taken off since elevating the usage of his incredibly impressive sweeper, which has generated a 39.5% whiff rate or better in each of the last two seasons.
2023, As Starter: 2.68 FIP, 31.3 K%, 5.5 BB%, 1.14 WHIP
2022, As Reliever: 3.41 FIP, 28.4 K%, 8.6 BB%, 1.15 WHIP
In a limited sample size last year, King was plenty effective in the rotation for the Yankees, holding his opponent to 1 earned run or fewer in 7 of 8 starts from August 24 to the end of the regular season. His strength of opponents in that time period was far from elite, but the Astros, Brewers, Red Sox, and Blue Jays were far from bottom-feeder teams.
Heading into 2024, there are very few questions about King’s ability. He has a capable sinker and 4-seam fastball in addition to a plus-sweeper and plus-changeup, which helps him avoid any large platoon issues. Even against a tough Los Angeles lineup, he should be able to hold his own. He will need to hold his own if the Padres want to have a chance to salvage a 1-1 split in their first series of the season.
Los Angeles Dodgers
What to expect from Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed a 12-year, $325 million contract with the Dodgers this past winter — a seemingly incomprehensible commitment for a pitcher who has never thrown a pitch in an MLB contest. However, Grant Brisbee of The Athletic defended the signing and argued that Yamamoto might even be “the best pitcher alive right now.”
Entering 2024, Yamamoto’s career numbers include a 1.72 ERA, .714 winning percentage, with an excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio — and he’s still only 25 years old. His fastball sits in the mid-to-upper 90s, which only makes his elite splitter and devastating curveball more dangerous. Perhaps most impressive, Yamamoto can throw all of those offerings for strikes, which is a prerequisite for long-term success in the big leagues.
If interested in a comprehensive deep-dive into his arsenal, Eno Sarris posted a phenomenal breakdown last December. All the public data we have on Yamamoto suggests he has an exceptionally high floor with elite upside. The only thing that could potentially hold him back in 2024 is a suspect infield defense in Hollywood.
Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers offense having good at-bats early in 2024
Only 6 teams averaged 5+ runs per game during the 2023 regular season. However, that might end up being a bad night on average for the Dodgers in 2024. On Wednesday, Los Angeles had zero extra-base hits, went 2-for-14 with runners in scoring position, and left 13 men on base – and they still managed to score 5 runs.
It’s no secret that Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith are a dangerous top of the order. However, the quality at-bats from the 5-through-9 guys in the Dodgers’ lineup is what makes this offense so tough to stop. This group has another tough test against Joe Musgrove on Thursday, but they are never showing up to a game with a shortage of ammunition.
Los Angeles bullpen usage update
From July 12 to the end of the regular season last year, the Los Angeles bullpen ranked 1st in FIP, 1st in WHIP, and 7th in K%. They picked up right where they left off on Wednesday, delivering 4 innings of scoreless baseball and allowing only 2 baserunners.
Daniel Hudson threw 19 pitches in the win, which was the most of any reliever to find his way to the mound for the Dodgers. Managers try to avoid using relievers in back-to-back games early in the season if possible, but Dave Roberts might be okay being slightly more aggressive than usual on Thursday considering that his team has a week off before they play another regular season game. Everyone should be available if needed tomorrow.
Padres vs. Dodgers – Picks & Predictions
Despite scoring only 2 runs on Thursday, there is reason to believe that this group is in store for a better outcome on Thursday. San Diego had the bases loaded with nobody out in the 4th inning in their season-opener, but they managed only 1 run in that inning and couldn’t plate any more runs after that point.
Still, the Padres struck out only 6 times in over 30 plate appearances against Tyler Glasnow and the top relievers in the Los Angeles bullpen. On Thursday, they get a slightly more favorable matchup against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and their late-inning at-bats should mostly come against pitchers who are pitching on the second consecutive day for the first time in 2024.
This is worth at least a small stab.
PICK: Padres Team Total, Over 3.5 (-110, DraftKings)
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