New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction: Is Charlie Wright?
Is Charlie Wright? explores one NFL bet each week based on a major decision point. Ideally, this article will lay out a case for the bet in a thorough manner, giving the reader the opportunity to either agree with the perspective and tail the bet or disagree with the breakdown and fade the pick.
Was Charlie Wright?
Absolutely not. Detroit got blown out of the building. It was over in the second quarter. Lamar Jackson put on a show, and the Lions had to skew more pass-heavy than they want to. They could really use David Montgomery back in the lineup.
Split the prop picks yet again. Desmond Ridder cruised past his yardage number. The Colts, led by Gardner Minshew, TORCHED Cleveland’s vaunted defense. One of the more shocking developments of the Week 7 slate.
How about the public?
Our guy
Chuck_Wright5</a> moved to 4-2 last week (and 8-4 on props!)<br><br>Week 7 article: <a href="https://t.co/xLtS1eQD2o">https://t.co/xLtS1eQD2o</a><br><br>Is Charlie Wright?</p>— RotoGrinders (RotoGrinders) October 18, 2023
Tough one. Detroit was definitely a popular side.
Records after Week 7
- Charlie: 4-3
- Prop Picks: 9-5
- The Public: 2-3-1
Week 7 Pick: Dolphins -9.5 (-110 on Fanatics)
Reason: Buy the dip after Week 7.
This line was -12.5 heading into Sunday. Then New England beat Buffalo and Miami lost in Philly, and the number tumbled to single digits. We really going to overreact to one week?
Even with Sunday’s relatively weak performance, the Dolphins’ offense is still ahead of every other team by a comical margin. Miami averages 60+ yards and 5+ more points than the next-closest team. Tua Tagovailoa is averaging 299 passing yards per game. Mac Jones has thrown for 300 yards five times in his entire career.
New England’s defense is 24th in points per game, and most of their success is front-loaded. They lost Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez early in Week 4, and would go on to give up 38 points in that game. They’ve allowed nearly 27 points per game the last three weeks, and that includes matchups against New Orleans and Las Vegas.
Miami’s defense hasn’t been much better, but can this Jones-led offense score? The Patriots are 31st in scoring and 25th in yards per game. Last week’s 29-point outburst against Buffalo was the first time they’ve topped 20 all season.
This line should be closer to two touchdowns, will gladly buy the dip.
PICK: Dolphins -9.5 (-110 on Fanatics Sportsbook)
NFL Player Props for Week 7
George Pickens Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-115 on DraftKings)
Pickens came into Week 7 averaging eight targets per game. Diontae Johnson returned after missing virtually the entire season, and Pickens got … eight targets. That type of volume for a guy averaging 18.5 yards per catch is a solid recipe for receiving production. This is an excellent matchup too, as Jacksonville is 31st in passing yards allowed per game.
Kareem Hunt Under 46.5 Rushing Yards (-115 on DraftKings)
Hunt is the perceived starter with Jerome Ford nursing an injury, but Pierre Strong actually led the team in snaps and carries after Ford went down in Week 7. It’s a dreadful matchup, on the road against a Seattle defense ranking 3rd in yards per carry and 6th in rushing yards allowed per game. Cleveland is a 3.5-point underdog as well. Whether it’s playing time, poor performance or game script, we have multiple outs for this one.
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