Patriots vs. Bills Same Game Parlay Picks for Monday Night Football
The AFC showdown of the 2021 season is upon us this evening, with the AFC-leading Patriots (8-4) visiting the Bills (7-4). The victor will earn sole possession of the conference’s No. 1 seed—the loser will occupy the AFC’s top wild card spot. Indeed, the stakes are enormous this evening—and as always, we’ll have a lot riding on it as well. Like every primetime NFL contest this season, we will be assembling a Same Game Parlay on PointsBet.
A Same Game Parlay basically just means a parlay consisting of multiple correlated wagers from one specific game. It provides bettors with good options to bet a game—and piece together props into a parlay within that game—beyond just the standard spread, moneyline, and over/under totals.
SGPs have become one of the most popular options in sports betting, and we’ve been building parlays through PointsBet all season. We’ve never been as excited about a primetime SGP than we are for this one, so without further ado, let’s dive right into our top parlay props for the game of the year!
Patriots vs. Bills Same Game Parlay
- Pick Your Own Line: Patriots +3.5 (-140)
- Alternate Totals: OVER 37.5 (-176)
- Home Team Total: Bills OVER 16.5 (-276)
- Total Field Goals Over/Under: OVER 2.5 (-325)
- Passing Yards Props: Josh Allen 200+ Passing Yards (-276)
- Receiving Yards Props: Dawson Knox 25+ Receiving Yards (-301)
Total Odds (6 Legs): +550
Monday Night Football Parlay Picks
Pick Your Own Line: Patriots +3.5 (-140)
PointsBet’s SGP always lets us pick our own spread, and it’s honestly one of my favorite features of the in-game parlay experience. As our regular readers know, I have absolutely crushed our alternate spread picks. I have nailed our game picks in each of the last three SGP columns in which we picked either a spread or a moneyline (and in five of the last six). We’re very confident that we will ride that momentum into this evening’s must-see affair, with the visiting Patriots +3.5.
I love this—we get a field-goal handicap for the No. 1 team in the AFC, riding a six-game winning streak, coached by the greatest football mind in the history of the sport, and quarterbacked by the odds-on favorite for Rookie of the Year. Yeah, sign me up. Sportsbooks already had New England getting 2.5, and we’re just taking it a step further by buying a point and ensuring maximum value. Now the Pats can lose by three and we’ll still get the green.
If we’ve learned anything about Mac Jones, it’s that he has the poise of a Pro Bowl veteran under pressure. And if there’s one thing we know about Bill Belichick, it’s that he gets his team prepared for big games, especially against division rivals in the second half of the season and with an extra day of rest. Belichick’s defense has been as strong as ever over the course of this winning streak—New England has held opponents to 13 or fewer points in five of the six games, and has surrendered a total of 26 points over the course of the past four (6.5 points per game). And even when the Pats have lost this season, they’ve been in all but one until the last ref’s whistle. Take away the 28-13 shellacking by the Saints back on September 26—”(player-popup #mac-jones)Mac Jones”:/players/mac-jones-2861809’ worst day as a professional QB—and the Patriots’ average margin of loss has been three points.
The Bills are a superb team, and they almost always play well at home. Quarterback Josh Allen is having another MVP-candidate season, and he has a healthy arsenal of offensive weapons as well as a strong defense alongside him to take this team the distance. But the Pats are 4-1 against the spread versus winning teams, 2-1 ATS as underdogs, and 1-0 ATS as road ‘dogs. This feels like a game that goes down to the wire—take the hottest team in football to win or to lose by a field goal.
Alternate Totals: OVER 37.5 (-176)
I don’t blame you if you want to stay away from the total in this game entirely—we’re dealing with what should be a poor-weather game between the two top DVOA teams in the AFC (NE: 28.5%; BUF: 26.8%). But my job is to highlight a myriad of props, not just create parlays that have 100 percent chance of hitting. It’s all about risk vs. reward, and I view the -176 reward for this alternate total as worth the risk. These teams match up against each other well, they are well-coached with good defenses, and they have talented quarterbacks leading their offenses. They have combined to average 65.6 points per game over their last three games, and they respectively rank second (BUF: 29.6 ppg) and seventh (NE: 27 ppg) in the NFL in scoring on the season. The Patriots have scored 24 or more points in all five away games, and Buffalo averages 28 points per home game. Weather be damned, this one won’t finish 20-17. There’s just too much talent on either side for this to be a punt party.
Home Team Total: Bills OVER 16.5 (-276)
For pretty much the same reasons as the leg above, I’m going with the OVER on the Bills’ total of 16.5. That’s two touchdowns and a field goal! They average the equivalent of four TDs per game at Highmark Stadium—16.5 is a laughable number and a smash-play.
Let’s also consider that New England’s streak has been at least slightly aided by some fortuitous breaks in the form of both scheduling and opponent injuries. During their six-game run, the Pats have beaten the lowly Jets, the abysmal Falcons without Calvin Ridley and Cordarrelle Patterson on a short week, the Panthers without Christian McCaffrey, the Browns without Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt (and with Baker Mayfield hurt midway through), and the Titans without Derrick Henry. The last formidable threat New England has surmounted was the Chargers on Halloween, and that game finished 27-24. Two weeks before that, Dallas beat the Pats 35-29 at Foxboro (Tom Brady and the Bucs also beat them 19-17 in Gillette Oct. 3).
Here’s my less-winded point: good teams can score against the Patriots—we just haven’t seen them play a good team in a little while. And in the meantime, Buffalo put up 31 on a tough Saints defense in New Orleans its last time out, and Sean McDermott had all of Thanksgiving week to prepare for this matchup. This might be the regular-season matchup of McDermott’s life, never mind “(player-popup #josh-allen)Josh Allen”:/players/josh-allen-328331’s—I don’t think they will crap the bed tonight.
Total Field Goals Over/Under: OVER 2.5 (-325)
My special teams props have crushed in SGPs lately, but I understand if you don’t want to mess with this because of the -325. It’s just way too intriguing for me to pass up. Sure-legged kicker Nick Folk has led New England to an NFL-leading 2.6 field goals per game, 3.4 field goals per away game, and 3.3 field goals over its last three contests. Folk nailed five three-pointers in the Patriots last game alone! He’s made 91.2 percent of his attempts, putting him just below kicking GOAT “(player-popup #justin-tucker)Justin Tucker”:/players/justin-tucker-13611’s 92.6 percent. And Buffalo is no slouch in the kicking game, either! Tyler Bass has connected on multiple field goals in six games this season, and he has Buffalo averaging 1.8 FGs per game and 2.4 FGs per home game. Again, check the forecast before this game, as potential wind and snow could spoil our odds here. But if it’s just a wintry mix, I think our total field goals will be closer to five tonight.
Passing Yards Props: Josh Allen 200+ Passing Yards (-276)
I’ve loved Josh Allen since he entered the league, and I’ve carried him on my hometown fantasy team for the past three years. This kid has a massive amount of talent, and there’s no stage too big for him. That being said, I’m weary of the Patriots’ secondary combined with the Buffalo weather, so I’m staying conservative on the passing yardage prop here. Allen has exceeded 200 air yards in 10 of Buffalo’s 11 games this season, with the only exception coming in the Bills’ 35-0 rout of the Dolphins on September 19. New England has allowed 200.9 passing yards per game, but again, the Pats have not played a team with the offensive capabilities of Buffalo. Allen will have to pass early and often—this one’s a lock as long as we’re not in for the Great Nor’easter of 2021.
Receiving Yards Props: Dawson Knox 25+ Receiving Yards (-301)
I almost went with wideout Cole Beasley in this same prop, but then I read about New England safety Kyle Dugger potentially missing tonight’s game due to COVID-19 protocols. Dugger has been instrumental in Belichick’s system when it comes to shutting down opposing tight ends, including Atlanta’s stud rookie Kyle Pitts and Miami’s Mike Gesicki. Knox got hurt earlier in the season, but his production has been rock-solid when healthy. He’s hit the 25-point threshold in seven of nine games this season, including his last two games. He has averaged 3.4 catches, 13.4 yards per reception, and 46.1 yards per game on the season, while hauling in 75.6 percent of his 135 targets. Knox at 25+ is a healthy cherry on top of this SGP Monday night sundae.
Image Credit: Imagn