PGA Golf Betting Picks: Sentry Tournament of Champions

by Matt Schmitto (schmitto) Last Updated 2020-01-01 16:35:44

Golf is back in the swing of things as winners from the 2019 PGA Tour season make the trip to Maui for the annual Sentry Tournament of Champions. Unlike the more traditional PGA tournaments we’ll see in upcoming weeks, the Sentry Tournament of Champions is a no-cut event with a smaller-than-usual field. This year we have 34 golfers to choose from when placing our bets at US sportsbooks, making it roughly one-fifth to one-fourth the size of most PGA tournaments. While the condensed size makes PGA DFS more difficult with concentrated ownership on players, it makes it a bit easier to find outright winners at online sports betting sites for golf betting purposes, which is what we’ll focus on in this article.

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Before we preview the Kapalua Plantation Course and make our Sentry Tournament of Champions golf betting picks, let’s look at how we’ve done in the early stages of the 2019-20 golf season.

2019-20 PGA Golf Betting Results

• 2019 Presidents Cup +8.25 units
• Hero World Golf Classic -4 units
• Mayakoba Golf Classic -6 units

2019-20 PGA Tour Season: -1.75 units

For bookkeeping purposes, we’re only counting tournaments where designated units are assigned to each play, but it’s worth noting that we started the season with a 30-1 winner at the Greenbrier. Since units were not assigned at the time, it won’t go towards our 2019-20 season results.

Also be aware of the nature of golf betting. As discussed in RotoGrinders’ PGA golf betting guide, prepare yourself and your bankroll for more losing weeks than winning weeks. There’s a ton of variance in golf, which is partly why it’s such a fun sport for DFS and sports betting. While there will most certainly be more losing weeks than winning weeks, the goal is to come out on top at the end of the season. You can still profit even with just a few winners if you hit on golf outrights that pay 66-1, 80-1, and 125-1 as we identified last season.

Without further ado, let’s get to our PGA golf betting picks for the Sentry Tournament of Champions.

Sentry Tournament of Champions — Kapalua (Plantation) Golf Course

• Par 73
• 7,515 Yards
• Field: 34 golfers (no cut)
• Starts Thursday at 4 p.m. ET

Course Notes

Kapalua’s Plantation course has gone under the knife since the 2019 Sentry Tournament of Champions. The renovations include reseeding the entire course with Bermuda Grass, but the bulk of the renovations were on the greens. Each green has been rebuilt, and at least eight greens are enlarged, which will allow for more pin placements throughout the four rounds at Kapalua. Previously, pins largely remained in the same location, and there were some complaints that longer hitters had too much of an advantage. Bombers will maintain an advantage on this long course, but firmer, faster fairways, more difficult tee shots, and new pin placements could help shorter hitters stay in the hunt come Sunday.

Sentry Tournament of Champions — Past Winners at Kapalua

• 2019 – Xander Schauffele (-23), Gary Woodland (runner up)
• 2018 – Dustin Johnson (-24), Jon Rahm (runner up)
• 2017 – Justin Thomas (-22)
• 2016 – Jordan Spieth (-30), Patrick Reed (runner up)
• 2015 – Patrick Reed (-21)
• 2013 – Dustin Johnson (-17)

Considering there are 15 golfers in the field making their first appearance at Kapalua, coupled with the new renovations, we won’t pay much attention to course history this week (there’s a debate whether course history should be considered anywhere at all).

PGA Golf Betting Picks — Sentry Tournament of Champions

Dustin Johnson +1000 – Dustin Johnson might be flying under oddsmakers’ radars heading into the 2019-20 PGA Tour season. Last season Johnson was a +500 favorite at Kapalua, per GolfOdds.com. A two-time winner at this event, Johnson was +1000 in 2013 and +700 when he won in 2018. I know we said we wouldn’t weigh course history much, but Johnson played here seven times since 2011, finishing 10th or better each time. He wasn’t quite as dominant as in 2019 as he has been in recent years, which may explain why he sits fourth among favorites on the top-heavy betting board at US sportsbooks. I’m happy to bet two units on Johnson at these odds in a short field.

Risking 2 units to win 20 units at DraftKings Sportsbook. Use our promo code to get these odds.

Paul Casey +2500 – While most of the PGA Tour regulars have taken a break and others have stayed busy competing in the Presidents Cup, Casey took his talents across the pond. His travels have treated him well, winning on the European Tour in September and adding a pair or top 20 finishes before finishing 5th at the Australian Open in early December. Though Casey has had trouble closing the deal throughout his career, there’s no doubt that he’s a premium talent and can compete with the best. We find good value for Casey (+2500) at William Hill. He’s as low as +1800 at other sportsbooks.

Risking 1 unit to win 25 units at William Hill Sportsbook. Use our promo code to get these odds.

Matthew Wolff +6600 – It didn’t take long for this rookie to win on the PGA Tour after leaving Oklahoma State following a short, but accomplished collegiate career. Before departing Stillwater, Wolff was No. 2 in the World Amateur Rankings and crowned the nation’s top Division I golfer. He struggled in his first couple of professional tournaments but quickly added a professional win to his resume at the 3M Open. Wolff hasn’t missed a cut since the last week of June, and his distance will serve him well at Kapalua. He’s my favorite long-shot pick this week. If he struggles at all, I look forward to betting him at longer odds later this season.

Risking 1 unit to win 66 units at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Lanto Griffin +15000 – I wasn’t planning on adding this big of a long shot to my betting card, but we’re getting significant value at Draftkings relative to the +10000 odds at FanDuel and William Hill. Griffin did win at the Houston Open in October, but he struggled in November at the Mayakoba Golf Classic and the RSM Classic, so we don’t trust him enough to risk a full unit.

Risking .5 units to win 75 units at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Brendon Todd Top 10 +225 – Brendon Todd didn’t expect to be here. No one expected him to. Todd had gone five years without a win, and a severe case of what golfers like to call the “yips” sent him into a career-threatening slump. And to be sure, it’s not a winning slump we’re talking about. In 2016, Todd missed 20 of 21 cuts. The drought would carry on past 2016. The next season, with his full PGA Tour status gone, the struggling golfer missed eight out of nine cuts. 2018 was even worse, striking out in all six of his tournament appearances. Fast forward a bit, Todd is celebrating the New Year in Maui fresh off two victories. Todd’s two PGA Tour wins in his past four events are twice as as he’s had since turning pro 12 years ago. Todd finished 8th the last time he played at Kapalua (‘15). The star-studded field will make it difficult for him to add to his trophy case, but he can find himself in the top 10 again if his clubs stay hot. I see some value in this bet at William Hill. Todd is closer to +180 to finish in the top 10 at other sportsbooks.

Risking 1 unit to win 2.25 units at William Hill.

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Sentry Tournament of Champions Betting Card

Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images