Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Phillies vs. Braves Odds
| Phillies Odds | +165 |
| Braves Odds | -195 |
| Over/Under | 7 |
| Date | Tuesday, Oct. 11 |
| Time | 1:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
On Tuesday afternoon, the Philadelphia Phillies will travel to play the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park. In the series opener, the Phillies will turn to Ranger Suarez, who will be opposed by Max Fried. In this battle of southpaws, oddsmakers are expecting Atlanta to prevail, pricing them as -195 home favorites on the money line.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks for Game 1 of the National League Divisions Series.
Philadelphia Phillies
In his first full year as a starter, Ranger Suarez was a better than league average pitcher – finishing with a 3.65 ERA, 3.78 xERA, and a 3.87 FIP. However, he regressed sharply across his final eight turns through the rotation, with a 4.61 ERA, 4.38 FIP, and a 1.46 WHIP. In that span, he allowed a 45.1 percent hard-hit rate, compared to a 30.6 percent hard-hit rate in his first 21 outings. Suarez also had stark splits this summer, which make him a particularly poor option in Game 1 against an Atlanta offense that typically featured eight right-handed hitters when facing a southpaw late in the regular season. In 2022, Suarez had a 2.99 FIP, 3.9 percent walk-rate, and a 0.91 WHIP against left-handed batters, but a 4.09 FIP, 9.9 percent walk-rate, and a 1.44 WHIP against right-handed batters.
The Phillies could have a difficult time with the bats in this spot as well, facing one of the more talented southpaws in all of baseball. Across the final 30 days of the regular season, Philadelphia ranked 16th in OPS, 18th in ISO, 8th in walk percentage, 29th in strikeout percentage, and 21st in HardHit percentage against left-handed pitching. During the Wild Card round, this lineup was held scoreless in 8.0 innings against the combination of Jose Quintana and Jordan Montgomery across two games. All eight of the Phillies’ runs scored in the opening round of the postseason came against right-handed hurlers.
Against the St. Louis Cardinals, Manager Rob Thomson used Zach Eflin and Jose Alvarado in both games, with David Robertson being called-upon on Friday, and Seranthony Dominguez appearing on Saturday. In a five game series, the depth of this unit will be tested – and against a much better offense than the one that they saw this past weekend.
Atlanta Braves
After returning from an early season injury in 2021, Max Fried posted a 2.44 ERA, 3.09 FIP, and a 0.98 WHIP across his final 25 starts. In 2022, Fried got off to another slow start, but delivered a 2.18 ERA, 2.69 FIP, and a 1.00 WHIP across his final 22 trips to the hill. Atlanta’s ace was dominant against both left- and right-handed batters, and had no concerning home-and-away splits either – making it difficult for Philadelphia to construct their lineup in a way that will create tough spots for Fried.
If there is any reason for concern for the Braves on Tuesday, it is their offense. During the final month of the regular season, Atlanta ranked 19th in OPS, 16th in ISO, 22nd in walk rate, and 25th in strikeout percentage against left-handed pitching. Following the All-Star break, Matt Olson, “(player-popup #ronald-acuna)Ronald Acuna Jr, and Marcell Ozuna each posted worse than a .700 OPS against southpaws.
The primary strength of this roster is their bullpen, which is arguably the best unit left in the playoffs. Even better, Atlanta has arguably the best manager left in the postseason. In last fall’s 16-game run to a World Series title, Manager Brian Snitker used Tyler Matzek in 13 games, Luke Jackson in 11 games, and Will Smith in 11 games out of the arm barn. In 2022, Snitker has even more talent at his disposal, with Kenley Jansen, Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter, Collin McHugh, and Dylan Lee each capable of tossing a scoreless frame when needed. Atlanta’s relief corps ranked 5th in FIP, 4th in WHIP, and 5th in strikeout percentage during the second-half of the season.
Phillies vs. Braves Pick
On Tuesday, winds of nearly 10 miles-per-hour are forecasted to be blowing in towards the first base dugout. The pitcher-friendly wind only adds to the likelihood of a low-scoring affair between two teams that have struggled mightily with the bats against left-handed pitching over the last month of action. Expect both Max Fried and Ranger Suarez to pitch reasonably well, and for two rested bullpens to keep the scoring to a minimum in the latter frames – take the under.
PICKS: Under 7 (-110)
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