Playing on Rosters: Week 9
Obvious play is obvious! I tell myself that often. If I know it is obvious, and my opponents also know it is obvious, that becomes a problem. Let’s say I want to play Aaron Rodgers this week (whom I’ll discuss below.). After looking at everything I normally look at, he’s the guy I love. Then I realize everyone else also loves the same guy. What should I do?
Thousands of words have been written on this subject. There are almost as many ways to approach this as there are words that have been written on it. If you want my opinion, it is that you should try to maximize the points on your own roster. If someone projects out as the top play at his position you should use that person and try to win somewhere else. You never want to get beat by the player you loved yet avoided. Especially when that player was incredibly obvious. That said, the right way to play tournaments is to avoid an obvious player or two in favor of someone you think has the same upside.
Below I’ll mention an obvious play and a not so obvious play at QB, RB, WR, TE. The obvious player is someone I’m expecting to be highly-owned (yet worth it) while the not obvious play is someone who could differentiate your lineup in a tournament.
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers ($15,100) – The most-expensive QB on the board is pretty obvious. With the loss of Eddie Lacy, the Packers have not even tried to pretend that they have a running game lately. Rodgers’ pass attempts in his last four games are 38, 56, 42, 45. This week he draws a Colts’ defense that allows the sixth-most points to QBs and is 29th against the pass per DVOA. Obvious pick is obvious, right?
Colin Kaepernick ($10,200) – If you want a wildly different roster than the crowd, the best place to be different is QB. Since taking over the starting job against Buffalo Kaepernick posted an 18.08 and then a 16.12 against TB. If you look at his game log, you’ll note Kaepernick rushed for 66 and 84 yards in those games. This week, he faces a Saints defense that is terrible against the run and the pass. When you play Kaepernick you are basically starting with a floor of six points. I’m not promising anything spectacular here but if the passing yards show up with week Kaepernick has a chance to match QBs who cost $5K more than he does.
Running Back
Ezekiel Elliott ($14,300) – Somehow Rosters has priced Elliott as the third-most-expensive RB this week. If you punt QB with Kaepernick (and even if you don’t), you can easily fit Ezekiel Elliott against the defense that allows the fourth-most points to RBs. The Browns have allowed an average of 193 rushing yards per game over their last three. In fact, on 218 opponent rushes this season they’ve allowed 1034 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. Elliott is a very safe bet for 100 yards and a TD this week.
Charcandrick West ($8,400) – You know how I said above the second recommendation would be not obvious? I lied. You must at least consider Charcandrick West this week. West appears to be in line for 20+ touches this week against a Jaguars defense that is 13th against the run. In West’s career, he has four games with 18+ touches. In those games, he averages 124 total yards and 1.25 TDs. I’m also not avoiding this obvious pick. I’ll win somewhere else.
Wider Receiver
Michael Thomas ($8,500) – I’m not in love with the high-priced options at WR this week. I certainly think Antonio Brown is worth it but I hate wasting my time here to tell you that. Instead, if you look at Thomas’ target totals over the last six or so weeks, you’ll notice they dip against the better pass defenses. Against the bad defenses, Thomas has seen as many as 13 targets in a game (the high point). His worst game this season was 9.6 Rosters points. $8,500 is a great price for a guy who averages 7.86 targets per game (58 total).
TY Montgomery ($8,100) – After sitting out last week, Ty Montgomery is going to play this week. If you hadn’t noticed, the Packers are missing Eddie Lacy at RB. In Lacy’s absence they’ve attempted to fill the void with Don West, Knile Davis (who they cut this week), Randall Cobb (who is questionable this week), and Ty Montogomery. In the two weeks that Montgomery has filled in at RB for the Packers he has a total of 25 targets. I shouldn’t need to remind you of this bit Rosters awards one point-per-reception. The Colts have allowed 5.13 receptions per game to opposing RBs this year. I’d imagine Montgomery will easily best that number. We’re pretty much starting with a TD here.
Tight End
Kyle Rudolph ($6,100) – This price is too cheap for a TE against the Lions. We are talking about the team who has given up eight TDs to TEs in eight games. That’s lead to the Lions allowing 19.34 points to TE on the season. I enjoy playing any TE against the Lions. When that TE is Kyle Rudolph I especially enjoy it. Rudolph is seeing 27.47% of the Vikings targets this season.
Delanie Walker ($6,900) – If you aren’t playing Rudolph this week you can be different for just a few dollars more. Walker’s targets have been wildly inconsistent this season but he always has that win-the-week upside if Tennessee decides to throw the ball. This week the Chargers might have to pass the ball against San Diego. The Charges are 11th against TE at 13.71 Rosters points per game. Most of Walker’s games this season have been of the double-digit variety.
Defense, Kickers, and Bonuses
If you are looking for obvious and non-obvious Kickers and Defense this week, you’ve come to the wrong place. Well actually, you’ve come to the right site just the wrong article. Here at RotoGrinders we have a couple people who dig deep into defense and kicker each week. When selecting your Rosters defense I recommend Stewburtx8’s Defense and Special Teams article. If a Kicker is what you seek look no further than Sportsgrinder’s Kicker Study
Before I get out of here, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the very generous bonus our friends at Rosters are offering. If you are a first-time depositor Rosters will give you an additional $20 for free when you deposit $10. You’ll just need to use promo code: “Grinders” or use the RG Rosters Link. (Please note the bonus is applied manually. It can take a few hours to show up)