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Tonight, the Celtics have a chance to become the first team to punch a ticket to the Conference Finals. They’re up 3-1 over Cleveland as they return home for Game 5. Meanwhile, the Mavs and Thunder will square off in Oklahoma City with their series knotted, 2-2.
The Cavs are once again facing injury issues. Donovan Mitchell is expected to miss a second straight game, while Jarrett Allen and Caris LeVert are carrying questionable tags. Boston is a sizable 14.5-point home favorite as a result. In the late game, the Thunder are slighter 4.5-point home favorites over the Mavs.
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Now, let’s go through our NBA predictions to help make a PrizePicks entry for today.
NBA PrizePicks Predictions Today
Jrue Holiday More/Less Than 13.5 Points
The Celtics’ shocking offseason trade for Holiday seemingly solidified their status as title contenders. He has enjoyed a fine first season in Boston, but he’s predictably taken a back seat offensively. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown handle most of the Celtics’ usage, while Holiday is essentially the No. 5 option on offense when both Kristaps Porzingis and Derrick White are healthy.
Holiday averaged a meager 12.5 points per game during the regular season, which was his lowest average since his rookie season with the Sixers well over a decade ago. So far in the playoffs, Holiday’s scoring average has declined further to 10.1 points per game, even with Porzingis sidelined for the majority of Boston’s run to this point. Holiday has been a bit more froggy in the scoring department through the first 4 games of this series (13 PPG), though we can attribute that to some hot shooting from the field (50%).
Given the spread, there’s certainly a chance this game gets out of hand early. The Cavs aren’t the kind of team that’ll simply quit with their season on the line, but the Celts have far too much firepower. I’m comfortable banking on Holiday to finish with less than 13.5 points even if he happens to see a full complement of minutes.
- PrizePicks PLAY: Less Than 13.5 Points
PJ Washington More/Less Than 15.5 Points
The Mavs’ mid-season trades for Washington and Daniel Gafford were seen as solid moves at the time, but few could’ve expected those deals to turn Dallas into an apparent title contender. Both players have been godsends for a previously meandering franchise, with Washington, in particular, standing out so far against the Thunder.
The 25-year-old actually saw his scoring average decline after his arrival in Dallas. Washington averaged north of 13 points per game with Charlotte, though he only averaged 11.6 during the regular season after donning the Mavs’ uniform. The postseason has been a different story, however. Washington is scoring north of 15 points per game through 10 playoff appearances, while he’s averaging 21.8 per game through 4 games vs. OKC.
For whatever reason, Washington has found himself with countless wide-open looks from beyond the 3-point line. The Thunder’s defensive focus is understandably centered around Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, and OKC has apparently decided they’re fine with letting Washington beat them if he can.
Washington’s regular-season usage rate was just 16.4% with the Mavs. In this series, it’s all the way up to 21.7%. I wouldn’t expect Oklahoma City to completely overhaul their defensive game plan following their victory in Game 4, which gives me confidence in Washington enjoying another efficient offensive outing.
- PrizePicks PLAY: More Than 15.5 Points
Chet Holmgren More/Less Than 37 Fantasy Points
Chet would’ve won Rookie of the Year this season had it not been for that pesky Victor Wembanyama guy. OKC’s prized big man posted impressive averages of 16.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 2.3 blocks in his first NBA campaign. There’s no way the Thunder would’ve finished anywhere near the top of the Western Conference standings without him.
However, Chet has seemingly taken a back seat offensively in this series. His usage through the first 4 games is down to just 18.2%, which is quite a dip from his 21.9% regular-season mark. Chet’s next double-double will be his first since Game 1 of the first-round series against New Orleans.
It’s worth noting his minutes have been on the rise as this series has gone on. Chet topped out with a playoff-high 40 minutes in Game 4, and there’s certainly reason to believe he can reach that threshold again tonight in what is a crucial game for both sides. Chet’s usage has also been higher in OKC’s home games in these playoffs, so I’m expecting a big showing from the first-year big man in Game 5.
- PrizePicks PLAY: More Than 37 Fantasy Points
More PrizePicks Predictions
- Dereck Lively – More Than 7 Points
- Derrick White – More Than 28 Fantasy Points
- Derrick Jones – Less Than 9 Points
- Jayson Tatum – More Than 2.5 Made 3-Pointers
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