Puerto Rico vs. Mexico: World Baseball Classic Odds, Picks and Predictions
Puerto Rico vs. Mexico Odds
| Puerto Rico ML | -115 |
| Mexico ML | -115 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Date | Fri, Mar. 17 |
| Time | 7:00 p.m. |
| TV | FS1 |
On Friday, Puerto Rico and Mexico will meet in the quarterfinals of the 2023 World Baseball Classic, with a trip to the semifinals on the line. Puerto Rico will hand the ball to Marcus Stroman, who will be opposed by Julio Urias. Oddsmakers have these two teams priced as a pick’em on the market, with both teams listed as -115 on the moneyline ahead of first pitch. The over/under on the total is set at 7.5 runs.
Puerto Rico
Stroman on the bump
Marcus Stroman will start tonight’s game for Puerto Rico. In his lone pool play outing, he lasted 4.2 innings, allowing one earned run on two hits. He struck out two batters and did not allow a walk.
Last year, with the Chicago Cubs, Stroman posted a 3.50 ERA, 3.94 xERA, and a 3.76 FIP across 138.2 innings of work. He was roughly equally effective against both right- and left-handed hitters, leaving him immune to any potential platoon stack from Mexico this evening.
The larger concern for Stroman are his struggles the second time through the order. In 2022, consistent with previous seasons, Stroman’s FIP ballooned significantly when trying to get opposing batters out for the second time in a game. This will be a point to watch for bettors.
What to expect from Puerto Rico’s offense
During pool play, Puerto Rico’s lineup had five different players post an .842 OPS or better – each of whom is a right-handed batter and sees left-handed pitching better than right-handed pitching.
When Puerto Rico faced southpaw Colton Gordon during their matchup against Israel, they scored three runs in the first inning and forced him from the contest before he could record an out in the second frame. This Puerto Rico lineup is well-equipped to make some noise in the early portion of tonight’s matchup, even against a Urias, one of the more talented left-handed pitchers in the sport.
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Mexico
Urias gets the ball
Julio Urias will take the mound this evening for Mexico in a win-or-go-home atmosphere at loanDepot park. In his only pool play appearance, he lasted five innings, allowing three earned runs on three hits.
Pitching for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2022, Urias posted a 2.16 ERA, 2.81 xERA, and a 3.71 FIP across 175.0 innings of work. He was much tougher on left-handed batters, with a 0.73 WHIP, compared to a 1.02 WHIP against right-handed batters. Urias also had a better strikeout percentage, walk rate, and opponent batting average against lefties compared to righties.
The platoon split could be an issue for Urias, who is likely to see seven right-handed batters in the Puerto Rico starting lineup on Friday.
What to expect from the Mexico lineup
Similar to Puerto Rico, Mexico had five different players do the majority of the heavy lifting during pool play. In those four games, Randy Arozarena, Alexis Wilson, Joey Meneses, Rowdy Tellez, and Austin Barnes each had a .900 OPS or better.
However, Arozarena has been much better against left-handed pitching during the early portion of his career compared to right-handed pitching. The same can be said for Meneses and Barnes.
If the big bats in this lineup are kept quiet by Stroman, it is difficult to see where the rest of this batting order could do significant damage.
Puerto Rico vs. Mexico – Picks & Predictions
Julio Urias is an elite pitcher, but he has a tough task tonight, facing a right-handed stacked Puerto Rico lineup in a high-energy atmosphere. The last time Puerto Rico saw a southpaw on the hill, they scored four runs off of him and chased him from the game before he could get an out in the second inning. Though it would be unwise to expect Urias to get slaughtered on Friday, he did allow three earned runs in five innings during his lone pool play appearance.
Take the over on Puerto Rico’s first five team total in this matchup.
PICK: Puerto Rico – Over 1.5 runs, First 5 innings (-125, DraftKings)
Image Credit: Getty Images