Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers - Game 2 Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Rays vs. Rangers Odds
| Rangers Odds | +140 |
| Rays Odds | -160 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Date | Wed, Oct. 4 |
| Time | 3:08 p.m. |
| TV | ABC |
On Wednesday, the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays will play Game 2 of their American League Wild Card series from Tropicana Field. Texas defeated Tampa Bay 4-0 in the series opener and can punch their ticket to the next round with a win this afternoon. Nathan Eovaldi will get the ball for the Rangers, and will be opposed by Zach Eflin for the Rays. The first pitch is scheduled for 3:08 p.m. ET on ABC.
Ahead of the first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Rays as -160 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 7.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Texas Rangers
Which version of Nathan Eovaldi should bettors expect on Wednesday?
A quick glance at the season-long statistics for Nathan Eovaldi might trap bettors into thinking they are getting one version of him on the mound today, when in reality that is not likely to be the case. Following a September return from the injured list, Eovaldi posted a dreadful 9.30 ERA, 7.88 FIP, and 1.92 WHIP across six starts. His strikeout and walk rates both regressed relative to their pre-injury baselines. Eovaldi’s velocity and spin rates were down on each of his offerings in September, which led to fewer swings and misses, more hard-contact allowed, and a seeming trepidation on his end to compete in the strike zone – judging by fewer first-pitch strikes. Eovaldi’s struggles are likely to continue on Wednesday.
Rangers’ offense looking to end drought with RISP
Yesterday, Texas scored four runs and won the ballgame, which is the obvious and paramount goal. However, it is difficult to overlook the fact that they left an astounding 13 men on base and went only 2-for-13 (.154 batting average) with runners in scoring position (RISP). Tampa Bay had what is likely to be their worst defensive game of the entire postseason on Tuesday, and Texas was mostly unable to take advantage of those mistakes. Dating back to the final weekend of the regular season, the Rangers are in a 3-for-23 (.130 batting average) slump with RISP. Facing Zach Eflin and all of Tampa Bay’s high-leverage relievers on Wednesday is only going to make it tougher to turn these numbers around.
How will Bruce Bochy manage the late innings in Game 2?
In Game 1, manager Bruce Bochy was fortunate to get seven scoreless innings from his starter, Jordan Montgomery, which eliminated any necessary bridge to his late-inning, high-leverage arms – Aroldis Chapman and Jose Leclerc. Chapman handled the eighth inning and Leclerc tossed a scoreless ninth inning to secure the win, but both pitchers threw at least 14 pitches. In the playoffs, reliever usage sometimes borders on abuse, meaning that both guys should be available today. However, it is unlikely that Bochy will be unnecessarily aggressive with his bullpen today, knowing that Texas will, at worst, have one more opportunity to win the series tomorrow. Outside of Chapman and Leclerc, the Texas arm barn does not have many reliable options. No other permanent member of the bullpen had a FIP below 4.05 from July 1 to the end of the regular season.
Tampa Bay Rays
Zach Eflin ready to shine bright for the Rays
There was not a more underrated starting pitcher in the big leagues this summer than Zach Eflin, who criminally never made his way into the Cy Young conversation in the American League. Eflin finished the regular season ranked in the 91st percentile in xERA, and in the 75th percentile or better in xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate, and hard-hit percentage. He induces ground balls at an extremely high clip and gets his opponents to chase pitches outside of the strike zone more often than almost any other qualified pitcher. Eflin was strong across his final eight regular season outings, delivering a 2.98 ERA, 2.77 FIP, and 0.99 WHIP. Expect him to pitch well in Game with Tampa Bay’s season on the line.
What to expect from Tampa Bay offense
During the month of September, the Rays’ offense ranked 16th in OPS, 16th in ISO, 19th in walk percentage, and 17th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Simply, they were mediocre or worse across the board, especially when digging into batted ball metrics that reveal a 21st-ranked line-drive rate, an abundance of ground balls, and not nearly enough hard contact. Facing Eovaldi, who has struggled, Tampa Bay should unquestionably have a better performance than they did yesterday against Jordan Montgomery. Nevertheless, the ceiling is likely lower than is desirable for this lineup.
Tampa Bay bullpen in good shape
As we highlighted in yesterday’s Game 1 preview, the largest advantage that manager Kevin Cash has in this series is his bullpen, and he will not be afraid to be aggressive with this unit in Game 2 with the season on the line. Since September 1, the Rays’ relief unit ranks 2nd in FIP, 4th in WHIP, 2nd in strikeout rate, and 2nd in walk percentage. Yesterday, Cash avoided using Pete Fairbanks, Robert Stephenson, Shawn Armstrong, Colin Poche, and Kevin Kelly – each of his five best relievers during the second half of the regular season. This is a deep bullpen with a seemingly endless amount of high-end talent. Expect to see quite a few of these names make their way to the mound this afternoon.
Rangers vs. Rays – Picks & Predictions
The Tampa Bay defense is a legitimate concern. Yesterday, they made four errors and there were a few other defensive miscues that do not technically get recorded as “errors”, but are nonetheless costly. The Rays are once again likely to trot out a collection of misfits defensively, but it is hard to envision a Major League team performing that poorly two days in a row. Tampa Bay has an astronomical pitching advantage in Game 2, which should be enough to force a Game 3 if their offense can do the bare minimum this afternoon. The home favorites are likely to get the job done in this spot.
PICK: Rays Moneyline (-160, Fanatics Sportsbook)