Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns Prediction: Is Charlie Wright?
Is Charlie Wright? explores one NFL bet each week based on a major decision point. Ideally, this article will lay out a case for the bet in a thorough manner, giving the reader the opportunity to either agree with the perspective and tail the bet or disagree with the breakdown and fade the pick.
Was Charlie Wright?
Oh yeah. Philadelphia outclassed Tampa Bay in what was really about a C+ performance for them. Plenty of missed opportunities, weird play calls, bad decisions, and so on. Just didn’t matter. Bucs confirmed as an early over-performer, will continue to fade them.
Hit both of the prop picks, but it got scary. Garrett Wilson had a long catch on the final drive and fell just a half yard under his prop. Easy win for Alexander Mattison.
How about the public?
2-0 start for
Chuck_Wright5</a>. Will he be right again this week? <br><br>Week 3 article: <a href="https://t.co/QHfBsblSaq">https://t.co/QHfBsblSaq</a><br><br>Is Charlie Wright?</p>— RotoGrinders (RotoGrinders) September 21, 2023
Nailed it! And a season-high in votes, well done.
Records after Week 3
- Charlie: 3-0
- Prop Picks: 4-2
- The Public: 2-1
Week 4 Pick: Browns -2.5 (-115 on Fanatics)
Reason: Cleveland’s defense can overcome its offense.
It’s a tiny sample size (three games), but Cleveland’s defense looks incredible. The Browns are allowing 163.7 yards per game, far and away the best mark in the league. In fact, it’s 90 (!!) yards better than second place (Buffalo at 253 YPG). Cleveland is unsurprisingly 1st in points allowed per game (10.7) as well.
You would expect a team that has put together that type of three-game run on defense to be 3-0, but alas, the Browns are 2-1. Their lone loss came against Pittsburgh, who scored a pair of defensive touchdowns.
Deshaun Watson had a promising Week 3 performance, though the matchup likely had plenty to do with it. Tennessee is a bottom-five pass defense so far. Watson is 17th in EPA per play and 22nd in QBR. He’s 20th in yards per attempt, behind guys like Joshua Dobbs and Sam Howell.
In their first full game without Nick Chubb, Cleveland managed just 2.5 yards per carry against the Titans’ tough run defense. If the Browns can sustain success, it’ll likely be in spite of their offense.
Left tackle Ronnie Stanley and center Tyler Linderbaum returned to practice for Baltimore this week, and they desperately need those two to suit up this week against Cleveland’s ferocious front seven. The Ravens’ defense has been solid in its own right, so this should be a classic AFC North slugfest. I’m counting on Cleveland’s defense to carry them to another win.
PICK: Browns -2.5 (-115 on Fanatics Sportsbook)
NFL Player Props for Week 4
Brian Robinson Under 55.5 Rushing Yards (-114 on FanDuel)
Robinson has looked great, but he’s still game-script dependent. He’s averaged 18.5 carries in Washington’s two wins and got just 10 looks in their blowout loss. The Commanders are big underdogs on the road in Philly this week. Might be more of an Antonio Gibson game.
Mike Evans Under 59.5 Receiving Yards (-115 on BetMGM)
Marshon Lattimore owns Evans. He’s averaged under 40 receiving yards against the Saints over the past four seasons, and he’s maxed out at four receptions. Evans is an auto-fade every time these teams get together.
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