Raybon's Rollout: Week 12

Welcome back to Raybon’s Rollout, where I highlight the unconventional stacks and players I’ll be rolling out in DFS each week.

The column is largely based on my intensive research on stacking and coaching tendencies, and this year I’m adding a section that features the player with the top projected percentage odds of the week to hit cash game value, which follows the same methodology I use to calculate projected odds of hitting tournament value in my GPP Leverage Score metric.

Unconventional Stacks

RB Mark Ingram + RB Alvin Kamara

Since Week 6, the Saints’ first game this season without Adrian Peterson, Ingram and Kamara have been the two highest-scoring backs in fantasy. In each of the past two weeks, both have scored at least 20 points even in half-PPR scoring formats. Now they’re going to LA to face a run-funnel Rams defense that ranks third in pass defense DVOA and 20th in run defense DVOA. Not surprisingly, the Rams have been extremely generous to opposing backs, allowing the fourth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points in the league to running backs. When you roll out the chalk in tournaments, you want to offset it with as much unique roster construction as you can, and this stack accomplishes just that.

QB Marcus Mariota + TE Jack Doyle

Again, we’re trying to find ways to use strong plays while having somewhat unique roster construction, and what percentage of Mariota lineups do you think won’t contain one of Corey Davis, Delanie Walker, or T.Y. Hilton? I’d venture to guess not many. Notorious, JMToWin, and Steviepfl give some great analysis of those guys in the DraftKings Expert Survey (available to Premium users), so I’m going to instead make the case for going naked Mariota and pairing him with Doyle.

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For one, the Mariota tends to spread the ball around: three of his pass-catchers all have between a 20% and 22% target share. Secondly, after being the league’s best red zone quarterback for the first two years of his career, Mariota has struggled to throw touchdowns in the red zone this season. His three touchdowns on 32 red zone pass attempts are the fewest among the 23 quarterbacks with 30 or more attempts. What Mariota hasn’t struggled with, though, is scoring rushing touchdowns: he’s tied for second in the league with four scores on the ground. When these two teams met in Week 6, Mariota attempted only two rushes as he worked his way back from a hamstring injury, but he’s carried at least five times in each of the past two games and has rushed for 24 or more yards in 5-of-9 games this season. Meanwhile, the Colts have been vulnerable on the ground to the two other dual-threat passers they’ve faced, surrendering a 7-44-1 line to DeShone Kizer and a 4-38-1 line to Russell Wilson.

Doyle makes sense as the correlation play because the more success Mariota has, the more likely it is the Colts will need to pass—though they’ll likely want to do that anyway against a Titans defense ranked 17th in run defense DVOA but 26th in pass defense DVOA. And while the Titans are allowing the fewest explosive plays in the league and rank fourth in DVOA defending against deep passes, they rank dead last in DVOA against short passes. Tennessee would rather concede underneath throws to Doyle, whose average depth of target is just 5.1 yards, then give up something over the top to Donte Moncrief (14.9) or T.Y. Hilton (14.2). Doyle is a good bet to build on his 7.7 targets per game, which is third among all tight ends.

Best Odds to Hit Cash Game Value

Todd Gurley: 70% on FanDuel, 63% on DraftKings

(Note: For a complete explanation of how these odds are calculated, see the Week 1 edition of this column.)

Highest-scoring running back in fantasy? Check. Home favorite? Check. Playing in the game which has the highest total and closest spread of the week? Check. Run funnel defense that ranks fourth in pass defense DVOA and 26th in run defense DVOA? Check. It’s hard to find a box Gurley doesn’t check this week against the Saints. Take those checks straight to the bank(roll).

Coaching Tendency to Exploit

Devontae Booker’s increased snap rate

Lost amidst the Broncos getting upset at home, John Elway calling his players soft, and the team firing offensive coordinator Mike McCoy was Booker playing a season-high 59% of the snaps and touching the ball 19 times for 98 yards—including five catches for 54 yards on six targets. After being promoted to offensive coordinator, one of the first things Bill Musgrave told the media was that Booker deserves more touches. Whether those touches come at the expense of Jamaal Charles, who was phased out to the tune of four snaps ad three touches last week after averaging 17.0 snaps and 8.3 touches coming into the game, or C.J. Anderson, who played under 40% of the snaps last week for the third straight week, there should be enough volume for Booker with the Broncos starting sophomore quarterback Paxton Lynch for the first time this season.

Booker’s work in the passing game—he’s already had two games of 4+ catches and 50+ yards receiving—enhances his floor in the event the Raiders defense stacks the box against the run, though they haven’t been able to stop anyone this season, ranking 29th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs and 31st to quarterbacks.

Injury Situation to Exploit

Robert Woods’ shoulder injury

It’s easy to get excited about Sammy Watkins with New Orleans potentially missing the top two boundary cornerbacks, Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley, but Watkins will remain a boom/bust play until Goff shows more willingness/ability to move off his strong-side reads and target Watkins isolated on the weak side of the formation. Kupp, who was second on the team behind Woods with a 19% target share, is a safer bet to attract Goff’s attention—especially in the red zone, Kupp ranks fourth in the league with 16 red zone targets. And if Kenny Vaccaro returns from a groin injury to man the slot as expected, Kupp will be matching up with a player who PFF grades as a 40.4 in coverage, one of the worst marks in the league for any defensive back.

About the Author

chrisraybon
Chris Raybon (chrisraybon)

One of the most well respected DFS analysts in the industry. Chris Raybon (@Chris Raybon) is the Senior DFS Editor for 4for4.com and the host of the DFS MVP Podcast. Nominated for the FWSA‘s Newcomer of the Year award in 2015, Raybon is known for his DFS Playbook positional strategy guides as well as his groundbreaking work on stacking with running backs in DFS tournaments. A Syracuse University alum who specialized in accounting, Raybon believes in the synergy of quantitative and qualitative analysis. He started playing fantasy as a kid in the mid-90s and has seen every single play of every single NFL game since 2010.