Reverse Engineering: Saturday, January 30th
I was in chat last night and was talking about reverse engineering winning GPP lineups. This is something I have been doing for a long time, and I truly believe it helps you become a better GPP player.
Let’s start by breaking down the winning lineup from the FD Monster last night (Saturday). I hope this helps, and I don’t mind writing more of these if this is something you guys enjoy.
John Wall was in a really good spot tonight, and was the only point guard on this five-game slate with 50+ point upside. This game featured two teams in the top eight in pace this season and the highest Vegas total on the night. Wall was going to be extremely highly owned, but it made sense to have exposure to him. There was some solid value at point guard, but Wall had a lot to benefit from here. Porter has been banged up, and Beal is still on a minutes limit.
Emmanuel Mudiay would have never been on my list tonight, and that’s why I try to reverse engineer lineups as much as possible. It looks like gman20151 wanted a different cheap point guard here, and it really paid off for him. Mudiay wasn’t a play I was on tonight, so here are my thoughts on why he was rostered here. He’s played at least 30+ minutes in seven of the last eight games. He’s been at or around the 5x in all of those games, and DVP could easily scare people off him in this matchup. Mudiay ended up being 3%, and was able to outscore Sloan and Cole, the other two value plays on the slate.
Monta Ellis and James Harden were the key to success tonight. Denver is allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season, and Paul George is playing a little banged up right now. With the matchup and price tag, Ellis was in a very solid spot tonight, but nobody expected him to take 28 shots. Harden is playing on another level right now, and a lot of people had him projected as the top play. I’m not against fading a guy like Harden, but it’s hard to fade his upside on a five-game slate. Shooting guard is a very limited position with players not doing a lot more than scoring, and Harden is one of few guys capable of a triple-double.
Corey Brewer has started the last six games for the Rockets, and has played at least 25 minutes in six of the last seven games. He’s been starting at the three for the Rockets, and the Wizards have really struggled with wing players all season. A lot of people were on punts elsewhere, but even though this play didn’t pay off, it obviously didn’t kill his lineup because he was only $3,600.
Jeff Green was a sneaky good play tonight, and this pace bumped really favored him. Memphis is playing at the fourth-slowest pace in the league, and the Kings play at the fastest pace in the league. This leads to a nice bump for the Memphis players, and Green is one of the only guys that have the 30+ upside off the bench. He’s been trending in the right direction lately, and has attempted at least 13 shots in three straight games coming into this game. The Kings are bottom ten against forwards this season. When a scorer like Green is shooting the ball well, I like jumping on before the price increase, and before the industry starts jumping on him.
Ryan Anderson was the key to winning a GPP tonight. Anthony Davis returned to action, and everybody pivoted off Anderson. The thing is, power forward was weak tonight, and honestly it’s been weak on FD all season. Coming into this game, Anderson had attempted at least 20 shots in three straight games. Two of those games were with Davis on the court, and Anderson was trending in the right direction. With everybody moving off Anderson, it was a great spot to take a shot on him in a GPP.
Myles Turner was the one guy I thought would be on the winning GPP lineup going into the night. He was the chalk, and it showed with him being 82% owned in this GPP. Turner really shinned in his start against the Hawks, and received a nice bump with Ian Mahinmi ruled out. It’s no secret that Denver has struggled against frontcourt players for a couple of seasons now. Turner continues to be a solid play, but his price is finally starting to catch up with his production.
Brook Lopez had the best matchup on the board tonight. The Pelicans are allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season, and Lopez has really been a stud over the last few games. Center was a very weak spot on this five game slate, and it came down to Lopez, Gasol, and Gortat for me. Looking at those three guys, I feel like Lopez has the highest upside. Gasol is a very solid cash game option, but you don’t see him get over 50 fantasy points. Gortat has been solid, but he has upside caped around 40-44 fantasy points. I think Gortat was a solid cash option like Gasol, but I feel like Lopez had the really solid GPP upside.
Building this lineup took a lot of thought, and it was a really sound lineup. Starting with the shooting guards of Harden and Ellis, you really lock in 90+ point upside, and you really couldn’t do that with many other guys tonight. Locking in Turner and Brewer mean he was able to free up the cap to get Wall and Lopez. Paying up for center was the way to go on this slate. Green was a good GPP pivot off Ariza, and it really paid off for him here. With Sloan, Cole, and Beverley in good spots, it was worth a chance to pivot off of them for another cheap point guard. Mudiay didn’t return a lot, but he returned enough to pay off that $5,200 price tag.
Hope you guys enjoyed. I highly recommend trying to do this as much as you can to try to see what you missed and how you can use that going forward.