RG Newsletter #15: DFS/Betting Community News, Stats, Trends, And More!
Hey Grinders,
The Browns/Steelers game was one of the strangest in recent memory. Not just the result, but how it happened. The first snap soaring over Big Ben’s head, all the turnovers, Cleveland going up four scores immediately. And even after all that, it didn’t feel over until that final interception with three minutes left. Just a weird game.
As always, hit us up on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook if you have something you want to see in this space!
In this week’s edition:
- Core Plays for Divisional Round
- Betting Impact of Harden Trade
- SAO TV App Launch
- Quick Hitters
- Nicole’s Knowledge Nugget
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CORE PLAYS FOR DIVISIONAL ROUND
Cam Akers
DraftKings: $5,700
FanDuel: $7,000
Yahoo: $29
“After Akers parlayed 30 opportunities (28 carries and two targets) into 176 yards and a touchdown last week, I was expecting his price to go way up in the divisional round. However, he’s still only $5,700 on DraftKings and $7,000 on FanDuel. With Darrell Henderson out for the season, the Rams have turned the keys to the backfield over to Akers in their last two games. Malcolm Brown will mix in for a few snaps here and there, but Akers is likely to see 80% of the running back touches this week against the Packers.
This is certainly an exploitable matchup, as Green Bay was ranked 18th in DVOA against the run, 23rd in defensive adjusted line yards, and 28th in fantasy points allowed to running backs during the regular season. With Jared Goff nursing a thumb injury on his throwing hand, I expect a fairly conservative game plan from the Rams. They will give the ball to Akers as much as possible and even if they fall behind early, Akers will be heavily involved in the passing game. He feels like a no-brainer on this four-game slate.”
Full Core Plays article ($) from Notorious HERE
BETTING IMPACT OF HARDEN TRADE
Harden’s move to Brooklyn shook up the NBA futures odds for multiple teams. Matt Schmitto broke down the ramifications of the trade from several betting angles:
- Nets’ Finals odds
- Durant’s MVP campaign
- 76ers’ Finals odds (after missing out on Harden)
Definitely worth a read if you’re betting on NBA futures. Check it out HERE
And who won that trade?! Interesting results in the Twitter poll later on…
SAO TV APP LAUNCH
Which Steelers WR are you playing in GPPs?
— RotoGrinders (@RotoGrinders) November 19, 2020
Our CEO Cal Spears tweeted that back in October 2020. Nothing like it existed at the time (to our knowledge), so … we made our own.
Huge shoutout to the ScoresAndOdds team for putting this together. The SAO TV app is now available for FREE for Apple TV, Google Play, and coming soon to Amazon Fire TV. Stream live odds right in your living room!
QUICK HITTERS
Stat of the Week: Cleveland’s 28 first quarter points on Sunday is the most in NFL postseason history. (Via NBC)
Top Game Total: 57 – Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Top Team Total: 33.75 – Kansas City Chiefs
Top Ownership: As of Friday morning, our top owned players are Cam Akers (70.35% – Saturday) and Alvin Kamara (56.76% – Sunday) on FanDuel and Cam Akers (37.5% – Main Slate) on DraftKings.
Weather Watch (via Kevin Roth): BAL vs. BUF – Weather here is trending towards being a bit more interesting … Temp around freezing, chance for some snow, but most importantly winds coming in at 15-20mph sustained with gusts around 30. It’s not hugely impactful, but it’s going to have some impact on deeper throws and kicks. Full forecast HERE
Free Stuff Friday: We’re giving away a 5-day NBA Premium pass! Find out how to enter HERE
SCHMITTO’S SHARP MONEY
Kansas City Chiefs team total Over 33
“The Browns may have entered halftime with a 25-point lead, but the sheer amount of yardage allowed in the final two quarters is alarming no matter what kind of lead they had. We’ve watched the Browns give up yards and points all season, so let’s just call the first half what it was: a fluke.
Unless the Browns control the clock like the Raiders did when they delivered the Chiefs their first and only loss prior to Week 17, I don’t see how the Browns keep Kansas City from scoring 35 points.”
Read Matt Schmitto’s full Divisional Round betting picks HERE
Last week’s pick: Ravens -3 (WIN)
NICOLE’S KNOWLEDGE NUGGET
In LineupHQ, you can build by floor or ceiling projections by toggling the option next to the build button. Builds won’t be mixed, meaning if you are on “Ceil” and click build, the entire build will use ceiling values, even if you play with the toggle option in the middle of a build. The floor/ceiling options do not apply to rebuilds or the sidebar optimizer yet.
TWITTER POLL RESULTS
Which Steelers WR are you playing in GPPs?
— RotoGrinders (@RotoGrinders) November 19, 2020
Really interesting here. We might not be able to judge Houston’s haul for awhile, but it’s certainly substantial. Who knows how Harden will fit in Brooklyn, but if he extends (reopens?) their championship window, it’s a win.
Indiana and Cleveland might be the real winners, at least based on immediate value. The Pacers turned Victor Oladipo expiring contract into Caris LeVert and the Cavs swooped in and stole Jared Allen for basically nothing. A playoff team adding a versatile scorer with two extra years of team control and a rebuilding team landing a franchise center are both significant moves.
CONTENT CENTER
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