RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week: Week 7

by RotoGrinders Last Updated 2016-10-22 15:10:27

Welcome to the RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week! Each week, this piece will pull out one matchup that stands out to us on the weekend’s slate.

Below, you will find JMToWin’s writeup of this game from his NFL Edge – the most in-depth, DFS-specific piece in the industry, in which every game is broken down from top to bottom in a DFS-specific manner – and you will also find assorted thoughts from some of the other, top minds in Daily Fantasy Sports.

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JMToWin’s NFL Edge

Chargers at Falcons

Vegas-Implied Total: Falcons 30.0, Chargers 23.5

KEY MATCHUPS:

Falcons Run D – 22nd DVOA / 15th Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O – 23rd DVOA / 24th Yards per carry

Falcons Pass D – 23rd DVOA / 14th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Chargers Pass O – 6th DVOA / 4th Yards per pass attempt

Chargers Run D – 21st DVOA / 11th Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O – 8th DVOA / 13th Yards per carry

Chargers Pass D – 9th DVOA / 8th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Falcons Pass O – 2nd DVOA / 1st Yards per pass attempt

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This game not only features the highest Over/Under on the week and a ridiculous Vegas-implied total for the Falcons of 30.0, but it also features two of the best passing offenses in the NFL.

Of course, we should get this out of the way first: this idea that the Chargers have a bad defense is totally off base. As we can see above, the Chargers’ only defensive weakness is their DVOA against the run – but even that is somewhat offset by their ranking in yards allowed per carry (and their defense, as a whole, has only improved with the addition of Joey Bosa). That needs to be mentioned.

In mentioning that, however, we also need to mention that the Falcons’ passing offense achieved success on the road against Denver and Seattle the last two weeks. This helps explain the Vegas-implied total. This also helps explain the public excitement over this game.

Before we dig into the matchups on each side, let’s take a quick look to see if we can find any reason to expect this game to be lower-scoring than most are expecting. After all, if we can uncover anything that points to a lower-scoring game, we can fade where others are loading up, and can gain an edge if we are right…

Total opponent plays allowed: Atlanta ranks 25th in this category, and San Diego ranks 28th. This works in favor of a higher-scoring game, with each team likely to allow the other to run more plays than normal.

Passing play percentage: Surprisingly, Atlanta ranks 22nd and San Diego ranks 23rd – meaning each team is actually more run-leaning than we would expect. If either team decides to focus more heavily on the run, this could slow down the game and lower the score a bit, especially as each team is susceptible on the ground.

Situation-neutral pace: Atlanta ranks fourth, and San Diego ranks 12th. This helps explain how each team allows plenty of opponent plays while still skewing toward the run.

Combined point totals, Chargers: In the Chargers’ six games this year, their combined point totals have been 60, 52, 48, 69, 65, and 34 (vs Broncos).

Combined point totals, Falcons: In the Falcons’ six games this year, their combined point totals have been 55, 63, 77, 81, 39 (vs Broncos), and 50.

Yeah. All things considered, I am comfortable assuming this will be a high-scoring game. As such, let’s take a quick look at some game theory thoughts before we dive into the matchups:

We know this game is likely to be high-scoring. We also know this game is likely to be popular on DFS rosters. There are, then, two ways we can gain an edge: 1) Look to roster players others will not be on, or 2) Look to “go overboard,” so to speak, on ownership – rostering even more players from this game than others will roster (or, if you are a multi-entry DFSer, rostering these guys across your rosters at a higher percentage than they will be rostered by the field).

Or, of course, you could pick through the actual matchups and try to best predict who will have a big game.

A lot of the high-scoring games these teams have played so far this season have been a result of one team jumping out to a big lead, and the other team playing catch-up. I will not at all be surprised if this game starts a bit slow, with one team (or both teams) sticking to the ground early on, but as the game progresses, the pace and aggressiveness are sure to pick up, leading to yet another aggressive, high-scoring affair for both teams. With that said, the running backs on both sides of this game are in play. Melvin Gordon has not looked great this year, but he has seen touch totals in his last five games of 27, 20, 25, 17, and 27. That type of workload (along with the second most carries in the NFL inside the ten yard line) can go a long way toward creating upside. Gordon is also in that in-between price range that can cause him to go overlooked.

On the other side of this game, Devonta Freeman has seen touch totals over the last five weeks of 17, 19, 15, 26, and 15. This is not the type of elite workload we would typically like to target, but the matchup is excellent, and Freeman is involved near the goal line (three targets and four carries inside the ten yard line this year). I like this spot plenty – especially as we could get 25 or more total carries from the Falcons this week.

Of course, that also leads us to Tevin Coleman, who has seen touch totals on the season of 13, 14, 15, 11, 10, and six. Against a San Diego team that is more susceptible through the air to running backs than they are to wide receivers, this is a great spot for Tevin to get involved once again. Obviously, his floor is low – but the ceiling remains intact.

And now, of course, the pass games – which is where most of the interest will flow this week.

I’ll start out by saying what we all know already: Julio Jones is one of the most talented wide receivers in the NFL, and he has a tremendous ceiling this weekend. While you will be able to find plenty of articles that talk up Julio as a great play, however (or even as a “must play”), I’ll go ahead and mention that Julio has only one game all year with double-digit targets. It’s extremely difficult to hit value at his high price tag (let alone exceed value) with such a light workload, in a non-easy matchup. I will add to that: I like Julio a lot this week, and I think he’s one of the strongest raw-points plays on the weekend. But I can also see a very clear case to be made for a tourney fade – especially with some other, viable high-priced guys available as well.

Mohamed Sanu saw 10 targets last week and seems to be healthy again; he also has six red zone targets and three targets inside the ten yard line (more than Julio in both categories). Sanu really functions best as a number three receiver, but he is in play this week nonetheless.

On the Chargers’ side, Tyrell Williams is near the top of the NFL in both red zone targets (nine) and targets inside the ten yard line (four). Although the Falcons have a solid pass defense on paper, their lack of pass rush and the game flow their offense creates leads to positive games for opposing pass units. Tyrell is my favorite play among the Chargers’ wide receivers.

If Travis Benjamin plays this week (he missed Wednesday’s practice), he should also be locked into a solid workload, and while he is less of a red zone threat, his big-play upside certainly keeps his ceiling intact.

Hunter Henry has seen 84% and 68% of the Chargers’ snaps the last two weeks, and the Falcons rank 22nd in DVOA against the tight end position.

And of course, Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan are both in play. While there are individual elements to be concerned about trying to predict in each passing game, what we can comfortably predict is that each team should ultimately be able to move the ball through the air – and each quarterback should benefit as a result.

Favorite Cash Game Plays: Matt Ryan, Devonta Freeman, Julio Jones, Philip Rivers, Melvin Gordon, Tyrell Williams, Hunter Henry
Favorite Tourney Plays: All of the above, plus Tevin Coleman, Mohamed Sanu

What Our Experts Are Saying (NFL Premium)

Below you will find a couple of teasers from our Premium selections. We have a lot of content available for subscribers each week, including Consensus Value Rankings, in-depth slate writeups, cheat sheets, positional spotlights, and much more.

FanDuel – Notorious’ Cheat Sheet

Quarterback

DraftKings – ChrisGimino’s Correlations

Favorite Correlation Option from Chargers vs. Falcons

Philip Rivers / Julio Jones / Hunter Henry

I like this play because I want to get exposure to the game without overspending or taking the worst of it in terms of matchups. We’ll have to wait and see if we get word on how often we expect Desmond Trufant to cover Tyrell Williams and whether or not Travis Benjamin is healthy. If Benjamin is out and we find Trufant primarily on Williams, I really like Hunter Henry to get loaded up with targets. I like Henry anyway, but that situation would be an uptick to his ceiling. I would feel just as happy to roster Matt Ryan here instead of Philip Rivers, but this early in the week I like the slight savings I get with the Chargers QB. Julio Jones is in a near must play spot. I don’t currently have a clue how the Chargers expect to keep him in check. He’ll crucify any defender they matchup man to man, and if they play zone the Falcons have already shown their ability to get him open on crossing routes and other zone beaters. Julio got it done against one of the league’s best last week in Richard Sherman, and there is no doubt he’ll have a fine performance against a substantially less challenging Chargers group.