New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction: Is Charlie Wright?
Is Charlie Wright? explores one NFL bet each week based on a major decision point. Ideally, this article will lay out a case for the bet in a thorough manner, giving the reader the opportunity to either agree with the perspective and tail the bet or disagree with the breakdown and fade the pick.
Was Charlie Wright? (MIA ML)
Yessir. It wasn’t the shootout we expected, but Miami did enough to hold off Dallas at home. They now have a shot to take the No. 1 seed from Baltimore if they can beat them this week. It’s going to be a tall task on the road, but quite the improvement after it looked like they might fumble away the division.
FINALLY hit both props, after months of splitting them. Tee Higgins knocked his receiving yards out on one catch, and Javonte Williams failed to get anything going against New England.
Records after Week 16
- Charlie: 10-5-1
- Prop Picks: 19-13
Week 17 Pick: Tampa Bay -2.5 (-110 on Fanatics Sportsbook)
Reason: Baker Mayfield is a guy now.
Mayfield’s revival goes beyond 2022 Geno Smith. At least in that situation, you could argue Smith was able to mature and grow during his long layoff between starting gigs. He was horrendous in his first two years with New York, but improved by the time he stepped in for Seattle. Mayfield was bad last year. Like REALLY bad.
After sputtering through an injury-plagued 2021 with a sub-.500 Cleveland team, they moved on. Mayfield caught on with Carolina, only to post a 6:6 TD:INT over seven appearances. The Panthers also moved on, and while Mayfield’s tenure with the Rams was fun, he still only managed four TDs over five games.
But my goodness, this run with Tampa Bay. After beating out Kyle Trask for the job (yep, that was a thing), Mayfield is now on pace to set career highs in passing yards, TDs and completion percentage. He’s ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert (and Deshaun Watson!) in yards per attempt. He’s 6th in passing TDs.
The Buccaneers have struggled with injuries on defense, but they’re up to 11th in points allowed per game. They’ve been destroyed against the pass and stout against the run, which means the game will be in the hands of Derek Carr. That’s a good thing for Tampa Bay backers.
The Buccaneers have rattled off four straight wins and should lock up the division with a win here. They dominated the Saints on the road in their first meeting. Grabbing this before it gets back up to a field goal.
PICK: Tampa Bay -2.5 ML (-110 on Fanatics Sportsbook)
NFL Player Props for Week 17
Tony Pollard Under 55.5 Rushing Yards (-115 on PointsBet)
Detroit has allowed the 4th-fewest rushing yards per game, and they’re only 4th because of getting torched by running quarterbacks (4th-most rushing yards allowed to QBs). The Lions are 1st in rushing yards allowed per game to running backs at 59.93 YPG. No other defense is under 65. They’re 3rd in yards per carry allowed to RBs. Pollard has stumbled to 3.68 yards per carry over the past four games, despite claims that he was finally feeling healthy following offseason surgery. He might need 20+ carries to get to 55 yards.
Rashee Rice Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-115 on DraftKings)
Rice is Kansas City’s best receiving option at this point, no offense to Taylor Swift’s fella. The rookie has racked up 9+ targets in five straight games, including a career-high 12 last week. Rice is also up over a 70% snap share in three straight games after failing to do so in his previous 12 appearances. Cincinnati allows the 5th-most passing yards per game. They’ve allowed the most yards per reception and the 6th-most yards per game to wide receivers.
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