New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction: Is Charlie Wright?
Is Charlie Wright? explores one NFL bet each week based on a major decision point. Ideally, this article will lay out a case for the bet in a thorough manner, giving the reader the opportunity to either agree with the perspective and tail the bet or disagree with the breakdown and fade the pick.
Was Charlie Wright? (MIN ML)
Nope. Should’ve taken the points. Disgusting loss by the Vikings on Monday night, allowing Russell Wilson to march down the field for a game-winning drive. Joshua Dobbs showed some flaws too. The offensive line didn’t do him any favors.
Splits the props. Jordan Love lit up the Chargers, that one hit easy. Trey McBride came up a little short. Kyler Murray had him for a 15-yard gain that would’ve hit the over, but he one-hopped the throw into McBride’s shins. Fun stuff.
How about the public?
With an easy cover by Dallas last week,
Chuck_Wright5</a> moved to 7-3. <br><br>Week 11 article: <a href="https://t.co/WYsbsdTsGx">https://t.co/WYsbsdTsGx</a><br><br>Is Charlie Wright?</p>— RotoGrinders (RotoGrinders) November 16, 2023
Darn. Back to .500 for the public.
Records after Week 11
- Charlie: 7-4
- Prop Picks: 13-9
- The Public: 4-4-1
Week 12 Pick: Atlanta -0.5 (-110 on Fanatics Sportsbook)
Reason: Desmond Ridder is an upgrade.
Look, it can’t get much worse. The Taylor Heinicke experiment failed miserably, with the Falcons losing both of his starts. Heinicke managed to complete just 55% of his passes, putting him behind the superstar trio of Zach Wilson, Clayton Tune and Mitch Trubisky. Heinicke stumbled to 3.67 yards per attempt against Arizona’s porous defense before being knocked out of the game in Week 11.
It’s not like Ridder was competent in his eight starts. He has two more turnovers than total touchdowns this season. But Atlanta was 4-3 heading into Week 8, when Ridder was injured and gave way to Heinicke at halftime (they ultimately lost).
New Orleans has a top-10 defense against the pass, but they’re middling against the run. They also allow the 3rd-most rushing yards to quarterbacks. Arthur Smith finally unleashed Bijan Robinson in Week 10, so between him and Ridder potentially finding room on the ground (4 rushing TDs this season), Atlanta’s rushing attack should have success.
New Orleans sits atop the NFC South. Here are their wins: Titans, Panthers, Patriots, Colts, Bears. Basically a roll call for the Drake Maye sweepstakes.
Fanatics is at -0.5 (-110) for the spread and the moneyline is priced at -115. Makes sense to take a little extra value with the -0.5, as long as they don’t tie.
PICK: Atlanta -0.5 (-110 on Fanatics)
NFL Player Props for Week 12
Lamar Jackson Over 230.5 Passing Yards (-115 on BetMGM)
Will continue to fade this pass defense. The Chargers are up to a preposterous 291.6 passing yards allowed per game, 20+ more than the next-closest team. Love set a career-high with 322 passing yards last week. He had never been above 290. Los Angeles is also in the top 12 in rushing yards allowed per game. Mark Andrews is a huge loss, but Jackson has more weapons this season. He should have a big day through the air.
Russell Wilson Under 204.5 Passing Yards (-115 on Hard Rock)
Wilson dinked and dunked his way to 259 passing yards against Minnesota, but he had been held under 200 yards in five straight games prior to Monday night. He had also been under 30 attempts in 5-of-6 games. Cleveland’s pass defense is the best in the league by a wide margin, holding opponents to just 143.7 yards per game. More importantly, Denver is a slight favorite at home. I would expect the Broncos to lean on Javonte Williams and continue to hide Wilson as much as possible.
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