Padres vs. Mets Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Padres vs. Mets Odds
| Padres Odds | +160 |
| Mets Odds | -190 |
| Over/Under | 5.5 |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 7 |
| Time | 7:37 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
On Saturday evening, the San Diego Padres and New York Mets will play Game 2 of their National League Wild Card series at Citi Field. In Game 1, the Friars jumped out to an early 2-0 lead and never looked back in an eventual 7-1 victory. The Mets won 101 games during the regular season, but find themselves on the verge of elimination heading into tonight’s pivotal affair. Oddsmakers are expecting Jacob deGrom to save the Mets’ season for at least one more day, pricing the Mets as -190 home favorites on the money line.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks for Game 2 of the National League Wild Card round.
San Diego Padres
Blake Snell had struggled mightily since winning his lone American League Cy Young award, but a change of scenery, in addition to a new pitching coach, seems to have put him back on track. Across his final 14 turns in the rotation this summer, Snell delivered a 2.19 ERA, 2.23 FIP, 33.8 strikeout percentage, 6.4 percent walk rate, and a 1.03 WHIP. He allowed two earned runs or fewer in 12 of those 14 outings, and one earned run or fewer on 11 occasions. The main adjustment he made was an increase in slider usage at the expense of his curveball when facing right-handed batters. During the month of September, Snell threw his fastball and slider for 86.4 percent of his offerings to righties – against which, righties had a .119 batting average versus his fastball and a .132 batting average against his slider. Expect Snell to have another strong performance on Saturday.
Offensively, the Friars struggled mightily against right-handed pitching down the stretch of the regular season, ranking 18th in OPS, 25th in ISO, and 14th in HardHit% across the final 30 days of the schedule. In that span, Juan Soto batted only .265 with three home runs. Manny Machado had a .247 batting average and a .769 OPS, which is not bad for a league average player, but nowhere near the standard that we have grown to expect from the talented third baseman. The bottom of the lineup proved particularly inept, with Jurickson Profar, Josh Bell, Austin Nola, and Trent Grisham each having worse than a .650 OPS in that span. Yet, this group managed to tag Max Scherzer for seven runs in the early portion of Game 1 en route to a decisive victory. The postseason is known for its variance. In a small sample size, this offense may have just enough to get the job done.
The bullpen is still an area of concern for San Diego. Since the All-Star break, the Padres’ arm barn ranks only 10th in FIP, 11th in WHIP, 17th in strikeout percentage, and 22nd in left-on-base percentage. The resurgence of Josh Hader in the month of September was a welcome sign, but there is still a lack of depth behind the talented left-hander. Fortunately, Yu Darvish was able to deliver 7.0 innings of one-run baseball on Friday, leaving the high-leverage options in this relief corps rested and available for Saturday.
New York Mets
Jacob deGrom is possibly the most talented pitcher to ever toe the rubber on a Major League Baseball field. However, he is not infallible – which was painfully evident across his final four starts of the regular season, during which he posted a 6.00 ERA, 3.68 FIP, and a 1.14 WHIP. Importantly, his strikeout percentage in that span remained elite (44.8 percent), and his command was excellent – 4.6 percent walk rate, 67.8 percent first-pitch strikes. More than anything, deGrom suffered from an unusually high rate of hard-contact and some poor luck on balls in play. His velocity has been fine, and there are no other markers indicating that health could be a concern. The veteran right-hander could be poised for a major bounce-back in a win-or-go-home spot for the Mets.
Despite only scoring one run in Game 1, the Mets are far from decrepit with the bats. On Friday, New York had plenty of scoring opportunities, but only managed to go 1-for-11 with runners-on-base. Across the final 30 days of the regular season, New York ranked 2nd in OPS, 4th in ISO, 6th in walk percentage, and 3rd in strikeout percentage against southpaws. Expect patient and disciplined at-bats from this group on Saturday.
Bettors did not get to see it yesterday, but the Mets have, arguably, the best bullpen of any team in the postseason. Over the final month of the regular season, New York’s arm barn ranked 2nd in FIP, 6th in WHIP, 2nd in strikeout percentage, 1st in walk rate, and 7th in left-on-base percentage. Edwin Diaz has allowed only three earned runs in his last 43.1 innings of work dating back to May 27th – good for a 0.62 ERA. There is also depth behind the Mets’ dominant closer, which affords Manager Buck Showalter flexibility in trying to navigate the bridge from deGrom to Diaz in this spot.
Padres-Mets Pick
Betting the over is never comfortable in the postseason, but the path to six runs in this game is attainable. New York’s offense against left-handed pitching was elite across the final month of the regular season, and San Diego’s inability to control the run-game has the opportunity to turn walks and singles into doubles and triples – as we saw in Game 1. Jacob deGrom is capable of excellence every time he takes the mound, but he has been particularly susceptible to hard-contact of late, allowing a 15.9 percent barrel-rate across his final four September starts, during which he allowed 14 earned runs in 21.0 innings of work. This total is simply too low in this spot – take the over.
PICKS: Over 5 (-150)
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