How a Seattle Seahawks, Russell Wilson Trade Would Impact NFL Futures Odds
Shortly after more trade rumors about quarterback Russell Wilson began circulating out of Seattle on Thursday, Wilson’s agent, Mark Rodgers, cleared the air — well, sort of.
Wilson wants to play in Seattle, Rodgers told ESPN.
The eight-time Pro Bowler isn’t demanding a trade per se, but he does have a list of suitors, you know, in case he decides to demand one.
Call it what you want — Wilson isn’t happy in Seattle, and he’s letting the Seahawks front office plus a few others know about it.
One would think the Seahawks will find a way to appease their franchise quarterback. But if they don’t, yet another blockbuster trade could send a shock through NFL futures markets at online sportsbooks.
Take a look at current Super Bowl odds for the Seahawks and the four teams Wilson (whose contract includes a no-trade clause) said he’d be willing to play for if he, head coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Schnieder are unable to work things out:
All odds reference herein are from BetMGM, and accurate as of Thursday, Feb. 25, 2021, unless otherwise stated
- Seattle Seahawks +2200
- New Orleans Saints +1800
- Dallas Cowboys +2500
- Las Vegas Raiders +5000
- Chicago Bears +5000
NFL Bettors Keep Eyes On Wilson, Seattle Trade Rumors
When assessing how a Wilson trade would impact the Seahawks’ Super Bowl odds, NFL bettors need to make some predictions about what the Saints, Cowboys, Raiders, and Bears would have to give to Seattle to acquire Ciara’s husband.
All four teams would presumably trade quarterbacks and then some. The quarterbacks available in this thought experiment are Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston for the Saints, Dak Prescott for the Cowboys, Derek Carr for the Raiders, and Mitch Trubisky and Nick Foles for the Bears.
It’s tough to imagine a trade playing out with any of the above, but I suppose enough draft picks can make anything possible.
All feasible trades would seemingly leave the Seahawks worse off, at least in the short term, than before. None of the quarterbacks are close to an upgrade. But of the bunch, it’s the Cowboys’ Dak Prescott who comes closest to matching Wilson’s talent on the football field.
Prescott and the Cowboys currently have their own drama in Dallas, as Jerry and Stephen Jones appear reluctant to sign Prescott to a long-term deal. For now it looks like another franchise tag is inevitable for Prescott, whose health is in question after suffering a season-ending ankle injury in Week 5. If the Seahawks believe in the former NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and if Wilson decides to force his way out of Seattle, then an intraconference trade might be the best bet for both teams.
The Cowboys could package Prescott with one of his receivers, or maybe even running back Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott’s contract is costly and his performance is declining, but Carroll is a coach who still thinks it’s necessary to establish the run, so he might be dumb enough to bite on Elliott, too.
All of that to say, since Seattle’s Super Bowl odds will surely be hurt in the off-chance of a trade, it’s probably best to wait to invest in the Seahawks until Wilson and the front office get on the same page.
I can’t take seriously the prospects of Wilson ending up in Chicago, New Orleans or Las Vegas, but there’s merit to betting on the Raiders +6000 and Bears +7000 at FOX Bet if you disagree or happen to be a committed fan who will likely end up betting one of these longshots regardless. Wilson’s arrival, unlikely as it may be, would instantly turn these teams into Super Bowl contenders.
Unfortunately if you’re an Illinois sports bettor, you won’t have access to FOX Bet but you can find Bears +6000 at Bet Rivers.
Wilson Sits Fourth In NFL MVP Odds
As for NFL MVP odds for the 2021 season, Wilson (+1400) currently sits behind only Patrick Mahomes (+500), Aaron Rodgers (+800), and Josh Allen (+1300).
I don’t think a trade would significantly affect Wilson’s odds one way or another, though he could jump Allen on the betting board if he were to land in Dallas or New Orleans. With Matt Stafford’s Hollywood move and the 49ers fully healthy, the NFC West is expected to be one of the toughest divisions in the NFL, so Wilson might even be better off in Chicago than on the West Coast.
Statistically speaking, the Superdome and AT&T Stadium would be ideal settings for Wilson to post the kind of numbers required to win his first MVP award.
But again, don’t count on the Seahawks trading their franchise quarterback.
Odds are we’ll frustratingly watch another season of Wilson handing the ball to beat-up running backs far too often, scrambling for his life when he gets to pass, and a wild-card bid at best.
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