Sunday Night Football Odds & Picks: Broncos at Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes will meet up with the Denver Broncos for the seventh time in his career Sunday night. There’s been a common theme in his previous six meetings: he’s not only undefeated against the Broncos, but he’s also a perfect 6-0 against the spread.
Sunday Night Football Odds: Broncos at Chiefs
Originally from Texas, Mahomes showed his cowboy-like, gunslinger spirit as a rookie, wasting no time to break the Broncos in his NFL debut when he started in Week 17 of 2017. Mahomes completed 22-of-35 passes for 284 yards as he led the Chiefs to a 27-24 upset victory. He did all of this while throwing to Albert Wilson, Demetrius Harris, and Demarcus Robinson — remember, the Chiefs had their playoff seeding wrapped up, so Alex Smith, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill were given the week off.
Anyways, we all know what has followed in the subsequent few years: Mahomes is the best player in the NFL and arguably the best passer the league has ever seen. He grabbed MVP honors in his first full season as a starter and became Super Bowl MVP a year later on his way to delivering Kansas City their first Lombard Trophy since 1970. Now Mahomes is on the cusp of winning his second NFL MVP award while leading the league in passing yards and Total QBR. Ramping up his campaign last week, Mahomes threw an absurd 359 yards in the FIRST HALF against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, ending the game with a season-high 462 yards, plus three touchdowns and no interceptions. According to odds at online sportsbooks, Mahomes is running away in the MVP race as a prohibitive -400 favorite at BetMGM. (If you followed our 2020 MVP picks before the season, my suggestion is to do some hedging by betting on Aaron Rodgers +550 to win the award.)
In fact, the most impressive thing about Mahomes is how he is a gunslinger who often throws deep, dangerous passes, yet they rarely end up in his opponents’ hands. Mahomes has thrown only two interceptions this season, which means the quarterback on the other side of the field tonight, Drew Lock, has thrown more than 5x as many interceptions while playing three fewer games in 2020.
Losing Von Miller in September, the Broncos were undoubtedly behind the eight-ball before the season even began, but it is the lackluster play of Lock that has led them to a 4-7 record, including a two-interception performance against the Chiefs in Week 7.
The Chiefs were only 7-point favorites at the time. The spread shortened from 9 to 7 because of oddsmakers decreasing the point total as they reacted to a changing weather forecast and the first snowfall at Mile Stadium of the season.
9, 7, or 14 points; rain, snow, or sunshine — none of that mattered. The Chiefs blew out the Broncos at 43-16 as Mahomes & Co. continued their dominance over their AFC West rivals.
This time the game is in Kansas City and oddsmakers have adjusted accordingly, making the Chiefs 13.5-point favorites. Will that be enough on Sunday night?
Sunday Night Football Pick: Chiefs -13.5
From Super Bowl picks to MVP odds and more, I have written extensively on why I think there has been continued value on the Chiefs despite their prowess in 2019 and the “public” betting popularity that came after it.
That doesn’t change today. 13.5 points is a lot, but Mahomes has the Broncos’ number regardless of what that number may be. Expect another huge performance from Mahomes and Chiefs as Lock struggles to keep pace.
Chiefs-Broncos Player Props
Sammy Watkins OVER 3.5 Receptions (-135); OVER 44.5 Yards (-105) – After dealing Tyreek Hill 15 targets for a ridiculous 169-yard receiving game, I think Mahomes will spread the ball to other receivers this week. This will be Watkins second game back from being sidelined with a nagging hamstring injury for a month in a half. In his first game back, he caught four passes on seven targets for 38 yards. He’ll be even more involved in the offense today.
Watkins FIRST TD +1200
Melvin Gordon OVER 2.5 Receptions (+130) – Lock will dump it off to Gordon as the Broncos play catch-up in the second half.
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