Sunday NFL Divisional Round Betting Picks for Texans at Chiefs
Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans squeezed past the Wild Card Round, and now they have to face Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City. Here’s a sports betting preview and Sunday NFL Divisional Round betting picks for Texans at Chiefs.
Sunday Divisional Round Betting Picks for Texans at Chiefs
What happened last time?
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have a chance to avenge their Week 6 loss to the Houston Texans on Sunday.
The Chiefs started hot in Week 6, leading the Texans 17-0 in the first quarter. Before you knew it, Mahomes was limping off the field after aggravating an already-sore left ankle. Mahomes returned, but clearly hobbled, Kansas City’s offense found the end zone only once more in the final three quarters.
Watson out-dueled the defending MVP, throwing for 280 yards and a touchdown, while sprinting to the end zone twice. The Texans also controlled the ball while running the ball efficiently with the help of Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson. The Texans walked away with a 31-24 win as a result.
Like that day in October, the teams will battle in the confines of a hostile Arrowhead Stadium. This time, though, Mahomes is hobbled no more, and the Chiefs present a much-improved defense.
Not only was Mahomes less than 100 percent in their first meeting, but Kansas City was without five players who are slated to start in this week’s Divisional Round matchup, including the team’s leading tackler, linebacker Anthony Hitchens.
Chiefs defensive resurgence
Sure, the Texans had their way with the Chiefs on the ground and through the air in Week 6. There’s no denying that. The Texans ran for a total of 192 yards between Watson, Hyde and Johnson.
That was then; this is now.
The Chiefs struggled defensively against most teams the first half of the season, not just the Texans. However, things have changed as the defense has gotten healthier. The Chiefs are conceding merely 11.5 points and fewer than 100 yards rushing per game since Week 11. During that same span, opposing teams are only scoring on 24 percent of their offensive possessions and reaching the end zone only 12 percent of the time.
NFL Divisional Round Betting Picks: Chiefs -9.5
It’s a less-than-ideal matchup for Texans head coach Bill O’Brien, especially if the Chiefs defense shows up like it has the last seven weeks of the season. The Pick: Chiefs -9.5 (-110)
Still time for Chiefs futures?
Back in November, I suggested buying shares of Kansas City to win the Super Bowl at +1200 . I still like the Chiefs to win their first Super Bowl since 1970 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami on Feb. 2. Unfortunately, you can’t find them anywhere close to +1200. In fact, they’re all the way down to +340 . If you didn’t take advantage of the +1200 price tag in November, don’t sweat. As I discussed in Three Way to Bet on the Super Bowl without Betting on the Super Bowl, there are still ways to get Chiefs Super Bowl exposure with long odds.
One way to do that is to bet on Super Bowl MVP odds.
At FanDuel Sportsbook, you’ll find Tyreek Hill +4100, Travis Kelce +4400, and running back Damien Williams +6500. Obviously Mahomes — who is +450 to win Super Bowl MVP — will be the favorite to visit Mickey Mouse if the Chiefs do in fact raise the Lombardi Trophy in February. Quarterbacks have won Super Bowl MVP seven times over the last decade, after all. However, three non-quarterbacks have won the award in the last six years.
Hill, Kelce and Williams all have the talent and opportunity to put up Super Bowl MVP-winning performances. Hill and Williams, in particular, intrigue me.
Despite missing nearly one-third of the season with injuries, Hill posted two performances with 140+ receiving yards and two games with multiple touchdowns. Last season, Hill had six games with 100+ receiving yards, including four games between 139 and 215 yards. One reason for trepidation with these longshot bets such as Kelce and Hille numbers is Mahomes. Mahomes performances correlate with his no. 1 receiver and all-pro tight end. If they go off, Mahomes is likely putting up big numbers as well. However, that doesn’t hold true with the Chiefs running back, Damien Williams. Williams is certainly a longshot, but he too has had big performances. Most recently, Williams had 154 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns in Week 17. Kansas City still has to win two games plus the Super Bowl for any of these to be in play, but Williams is a realistic darkhorse candidate if the Chiefs get there.
Texans and Chiefs NFL Player Props
Whether the Chiefs get there or not, we still have some Divisional Round player props to take advantage on Sunday as the Chiefs face a defense that is allowing 267.2 pass yards per game, the fourth-worst in the NFL. I particularly like Tyreek Hill Over 74.5 yards (-108) and Over 5.5 receptions (+108). Kelce Over 70.5 receiving yards is enticing, too. Don’t be surprised if these are popular DFS plays as well.
Texans and Chiefs Player Props at Monkey Night Fight
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Deshaun Watson Over 250.5 Passing Yards
Tyreek Hill Over 76.4 Receiving Yards
Check out more general NFL betting tips with RotoGrinders NFL Betting Guide.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images