Suns vs. Bucks Game 6 Player Props, Picks: Bets for Booker, Middleton, and Giannis
The Bucks pulled out a thrilling win in Game 5 and now head back to Milwaukee up 3-2 with a chance to win their first NBA Championship since 1971. While Game 6 is sure to make for great theater, it’s always fun to have a little sweat while we watch along with the game. Accordingly, below you will find three of my favorite Game 6 prop bets that are currently available across various U.S. sportsbooks.
Suns vs. Bucks Game 6 NBA Player Props
Khris Middleton, Over 25.5 Points
| Suns vs. Bucks | Bucks -5 |
| Time, TV | 9:05 p.m. ET, ABC |
| Khris Middleton | Over 25.5 Points |
| Best Book | William Hill |
Middleton has cleared this number pretty easily the last two games, as the usage has come up substantially after it was down in Game 2 & 3. For sake of comparison, let’s lay out his usage rate, true shooting percentage, and total points in each game of the series.
Game 1: 30.9% usage rate, 55.8% true shooting percentage, 29 points
Game 2: 18.7% usage rate, 34.4% true shooting percentage, 11 points
Game 3: 18.4% usage rate, 58.7% true shooting percentage, 18 points
Game 4: 36.5% usage rate, 54.8% true shooting percentage, 40 points
Game 5: 29% usage rate, 59.6% true shooting percentage, 29 points
As the usage rate has climbed, so have the points. Shocker, I know!
What’s even more impressive is that Middleton has taken on that offensive load while playing between 43-44 minutes in each of those games. I can’t imagine the Bucks will change too much offensively considering they are coming off of a stellar 135.2 Offensive Rating in Game 5.
The last thing I want to note here is that Middleton has been hitting the over on this number simply due to minutes, volume, and shooting at his expectation. In regards to that last thing, I mean that he hasn’t even had a crazy efficient shooting game yet in this series. For example, his true shooting percentage during the regular season was 58.8% (57.2% for his career).
So the possibility of him actually having a really hot shooting night for once in this series leaves us an out just in case the usage ticks down in Game 6 for whatever reason. One way or another though, I like Middleton to hit the over on this number.
PICK: Over 25.5 Points
- Use Code: GRINDERSRF
- Paid out as a one time free bet
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Devin Booker, Under 4.5 Assists
| Suns vs. Bucks | Suns +5 |
| Time, TV | 9:05 p.m. ET, ABC |
| Devin Booker | Under 4.5 Assists |
| Best Book | Fanduel |
After losing the first two games of the series in Phoenix, we have seen a clear change in defensive scheme from Milwaukee as it pertains to how they are guarding Booker. And the end result is a player prop I think we can attack, which I will get to in a bit.
What we are seeing from Milwaukee is that they are far less willing to over-help when Booker has the ball. If you recall from Game 2, the Suns went 20 for 40 from three-point land, a lot of which were wide open catch-and-shoot looks. The reason? Too much over-helping from the Bucks.
When you think about it analytically, it actually makes a lot of sense. If the Bucks are over-helping, they are giving up wide open three-pointers to very capable shooters. But when they are content with Booker just doing his thing, they are living with a steady diet of contested mid-range jump shots. Remember, Booker doesn’t get to the line a ton, doesn’t usually shoot a lot of three’s (a total of just 14 attempts in these past three games), and doesn’t get a lot of his stuff at the rim.
So that begs the question: which would you rather have? A bunch of good three-point shooters getting wide open looks? Or a guy, even as skilled as Booker, taking a ton of contested two’s? The fact of the matter is that the analytics say a defense should want way more of the latter. So Booker has scored 40+ points in two straight games? Big whoop if you are Milwaukee…the Suns haven’t won either of those games.
Which brings me to this assist prop. Below you will find Booker’s potential assists in each game (and his actual assists in parentheses) of this series. Remember, it was Game 2 when the Suns went cray-cray from deep.
Game 1: 16 potential assists (6 assists)
Game 2: 12 potential assists (6 assists)
Game 3: 5 potential assists (2 assists)
Game 4: 5 potential assists (2 assists)
Game 5: 4 potential assists (3 assists)
If this trend keeps up, Booker is going to need an awful lot of run-good to hit the over here. Sure, his teammates could convert all of those potential assists into made buckets. But even if they did that in Game 5, the over still wouldn’t have hit on this number! Or Booker could make a concerted effort to distribute more. But even if he does that, it still might not result in a direct shot by a teammate (and if it does, it may not go in).
Ultimately, I think we see a lot of the same out of the Milwaukee defense in Game 6. So as a result, I think we see a lot of the same when it comes to Booker’s assists.
PICK: Under 4.5 Assists
- $1000 Risk-Free Bet
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Giannis Antetokounmpo, Over 2.5 Steals+Blocks
| Suns vs. Bucks | Bucks -5 |
| Time, TV | 9:05 p.m. ET, ABC |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Over 2.5 Steals + Blocks |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
Considering these two specific statistics are wildly variant, this is far more of a gut call by me. Any projection system is likely to have Giannis somewhere in the 2.5 to 3.0 range for his steals plus blocks, which is why just about every book has this prop at even money.
But another thing: this is actually a sneaky fun prop to sweat along with if you’ve never taken it before. That is especially so with Giannis, as you feel when watching that he could block any shot he wanted if he just went for the block every time. And then you have the whole “does the official scorekeeper really know the actual definition of a steal” thing in play too. I’m telling you, it’s a wild ride.
The way I see it though, the possibility to clinch your first NBA Championship—and being able to play this game behind the energy of your home crowd—could lead to Giannis making that extra rotation for a steal…or going up for that quick second jump of his to try and block someone’s shot after he failed to corral a rebound in a huge scrum. And there is always that chance that Giannis catches someone in transition that never saw him coming. I feel like we have seen that already from him in this series, but I just can’t quite put my finger on it…
For what it’s worth, Giannis has beaten this number in three of the five games of the series but is also coming off of a big fat zero in Game 5. I think that last game could actually work in his (and our) favor for this prop though. The Bucks defense slipped big time in Game 5 (129.3 Defensive Rating), although a lot of that was just great shot-making by the Suns. Considering how good Milwaukee’s offense was in that one too, you’d have to think that the Bucks spend a lot of their time in between games focusing on the defensive adjustments they need to make. Hopefully a byproduct of that is more stocks (steals plus blocks) for Giannis.
I will reiterate that this pick, for me, is way more for fun. I welcome you to join along for the ride though!
PICK: Over 2.5 Steals+Blocks
- Use Code: GRINDERS
- Exciting Brand
- Beginner Friendly
Image Credit: Imagn