SuperDraft NBA Multiplier Plays: Friday, February 5th
Update – Jaylen Brown is out, which makes Jayson Tatum a great play at his multiplier now. With Theo Maledon now out, I think Darius Bazley at 1.75x is now even more interesting. The Thunder are running out of ball handlers and offense so Bazley is in play with this multiplier
Hello Grinders. We have a loaded slate today and bound to have plenty of late-breaking news. I’m writing this early in the day and my suggestion would be to monitor the NBA projections in LineupHQ as they will be updated throughout the day. The focus here will be on the SuperDraft Multiplier plays that are catching my eye. Let’s dive in!
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Guard
Russell Westbrook – Westbrook sat out the last game due to rest but should be a full-go here. We’ve seen him rest on the back end of back-to-backs but when he does play, he’s averaging 1.4 fantasy points per minute with a 31% usage rate. While the Heat are tied for 22nd in pace, the Wizards rank 1st in pace, so something has to give. Vegas has this game opening with a 230 over/under, so plenty of points should be scored here. The most appealing aspect of Westbrook for me is the 1.25x multiplier. Using both the early RG projections and the SuperDraft projections, that gives him an expected median projection of close to 60 fantasy points.
Fred VanVleet – You are going to see a common theme from me in this article, and it’s that I love this Raptors/Nets game. Vegas has it opening with a massive 241.5 over/under, as the Nets have been awful on defense this season. Over their last three games, the Nets have had game scores of W147-125, W149-146 and W124-120. They just don’t care to stop anybody and are aiming to outscore their opponents, which is good news for the Raptors. The Raptors will continue to be without OG Anunoby, and per CourtIQ, Fred VanVleet sees a +3.6% usage bump when OG is out and owns a team-high 27.8% usage rate with an average of 1.34 fantasy points per minute. Yes, I may have some recency bias considering he’s coming off a career-game where he made 11 three-pointers and finished with nearly 78 fantasy points, but this matchup and 1.35x multiplier is very appealing to me.
James Harden – I don’t love the 1.1x multiplier, but like I said above, this game just feels like it’s going to be crazy from a fantasy standpoint that I have no problem loading up on this game. Our projections have Harden as the top scoring guard from a raw points perspective, barely outprojecting Kyrie Irving and his 1.2x multiplier. Things can always change if one of the big three in Brooklyn sits, so monitor the news. Harden has not had the same usage rate numbers in Brooklyn that he had in Houston, but the game environment is still appealing enough for me to consider Harden even with a meager 1.1x multiplier.
Others to consider: Kyle Lowry 1.3x (love this game), Jayson Tatum 1.25x (in play if Jaylen Brown is ruled out with his knee injury, as CourtIQ shows he has a 34.4% usage rate and averages 1.42 fantasy points per minute with Brown/Smart off the court)
Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo – The 1x multiplier is not appealing, and I suspect some people will be scared of the blowout potential the Bucks have against the Cavs. Those are all fair points, and I would be even more concerned if Collin Sexton ends up missing this game with his injury. But Giannis projects as the top projected player on this entire slate, so even with a 1x multiplier there’s plenty of routes for him to reach 60+ fantasy points if this game stays close. If you’re just looking for raw points, Giannis is the guy.
Pascal Siakam – What I wrote above for Fred VanVleet applies here for Pascal Siakam. No OG Anunoby means Siakam gets a minor usage bump and owns a 25.5% usage rate with an average of 1.05 fantasy points per game. Those numbers aren’t as appealing as VanVleet’s, but Siakam is averaging 35.6 minutes per game, tied for 15th in the NBA, so we know he’s going to be out there a lot to defend Brooklyn’s big three (who also all rank in the top 12 in the league for minutes per game).
Jerami Grant – This feels is a bit off the board as the matchup is not good against a top 10 Phoenix defense, but the appeal for me is the 1.65x multiplier for Grant. I prefer Grant when one or both of Derrick Rose and Blake Griffin are out, and that is not expected to be the case tonight, but we’ve seen Grant flash massive upside this season even with them on the court. Our early projections have Grant with a 37 fantasy point median, so at a 1.65x multiplier there’s a route to 61 fantasy points if that plays out. To put that into perspective, that would outpace Giannis and his 55 point median at a 1x multiplier. There’s risk here if Grant has a floor game, but at 1.65x, there’s also upside.
Others to consider: Kevin Durant 1.15x (for all the reasons I’ve stated about this game), Jimmy Butler 1.25x (great game environment but not great that Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro are now healthy to soak up usage)
Center
Bam Adebayo – Like I said in the Westbrook writeup, this Heat/Wizards game sets up to be a track-meet. I don’t love Adebayo as much with Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic back, but a 1.3x multiplier for Adebayo makes up for it. Our projections currently have Adebayo as the top projected center on the SuperDraft slate, so adding that 1.3x multiplier is icing on the cake. The Wizards rank 29th in defensive efficiency and will be using the trio of Robin Lopez, Alex Len and Moritz Wagner to try and stop Adebayo. Good luck.
Al Horford – I don’t expect Horford to get much love today but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort and George Hill are out, meaning Horford gets a +3.2% usage bump and will be tasked with even more of the offensive duties. I love the 1.65x multiplier because our projections have him outscoring someone like Rudy Gobert and his 1.35x multiplier, who I expect will be more popular. The matchup for Horford also isn’t a bad one against the combination of Ed Davis and Naz Reid, as the Timberwolves are among the bottom third of the league in defensive efficiency.
Others to consider: Rudy Gobert 1.35x (don’t love as much as Horford but still in play), Andre Drummond 1.2x (don’t love the matchup against Brook Lopez who can take Drummond away from the paint, but would rather take shots on Drummond over Gobert today)