The Mothership Has Landed - RotoGrinders Member Wins $100K On Just $4.44
When we read of big scores in the DFS industry, it’s usually from someone that has fired out substantial volume where one of his many entries hit. We don’t often read about the one-lineup, casual players going on to win the big money, because quite frankly the odds are stacked against them.
It is possible, however, and that was proven again last night when Jeremy Smith, aka mothership took down the FanDuel $500K Clutch Shot for the $100,000 first place prize. He took to the RotoGrinders forums shortly thereafter to celebrate his win and then took the time to answer some questions for us.
RotoGrinders: Tell us a little bit about yourself. Where you grew up, went to school, what you did before DFS, married, kids, single, etc.
Jeremy: I grew up in Indiana, so I was born a big basketball fan. We played basketball until the sun went down most nights, though despite all the court time, I never was all that good. I was a big Pacers fan during the Reggie Miller era but the Malice in the Palace ruined the NBA for a long time for me. Went to Earlham – a small liberal arts school in Indiana and then moved to South Texas for a decade with work. Fast forward a bunch of years and I’ve moved out to the SF bay area just as the Warriors start to get good. My wife and I are big (though arguably – bandwagon) fans. We watch every game and go to a few when we can. We have three girls in total that keeps us busy.
RotoGrinders: When did you get into DFS? What was your introduction to it?
Jeremy: I got into DFS in 2015 – if my memory serves me correctly, because that was the year both FD and DK went crazy advertising and had generous matches. I played NFL exclusively that year with poor results. I got into NBA last year, mostly because I love basketball and wanted some action on the games but traditional sports book wagering never really has appealed to me.
RotoGrinders: Tell us about your DFS path. The struggles you’ve had… the successes.
Jeremy: After blowing through my initial $100 deposit quite quickly, I realized that my particular personality is prone to overdoing it and that unless I was serious about subscribing to data services and building a model it was best if I just treated DFS as a hobby. With three kids and a full time job, I don’t exactly have a lot of spare time. In all, over three years I’ve deposited $400 – and had won about $418 until last night. Just a lot of nickel and dime grinding on low dollar contests. Figured it was better than a lottery ticket because I had some agency and it made watching the games more fun. Then last night happened.
RotoGrinders: Tell us about your daily life, the routines you take, the approaches you utilize in terms of DFS?
Jeremy: I generally enter lower dollar contests than the Clutch I entered last night. I work full time in a pretty busy environment, but when I can get away at lunch I’ll browse the daily RotoGrinders thread and put in an entry or two – on rare occasions maybe three via my phone. It would be rare that I put more than 20 minutes into building lineups. Last year I used the lineup optimizer tools more and even tinkered with my own value system for a bit, but I decided this year that I wanted more independent lineups and stuck to GPPs – whereas I was using the tools and doing more double ups in the past. I also just have a lot less time this year with a new baby and work.
RotoGrinders: Do you look/listen to others’ advice? If so, what do you try to glean from it and whose names are at the top of your list?
Jeremy: Last year I was probably guilty of building Frankenstein lineups by piecing together players from various posts on the RotoGrinders daily thread. This year I’ve used that thread less, only because I’ve had less time but when I have used it, its mostly been to dig up contrarian ideas. Which is likely how I ended up on Collison last night. Since I’m entering GPPs, if I see a consensus emerging – either on a fade or must start, I’ve been going the other way. I don’t read any advice put together by any professional DFS writers – sorry to disappoint ha ha.
RotoGrinders: What is your typical research process for a day of NBA? What resources do you utilize? If you make your own model, what factors do you weigh the most?*
Jeremy: I pretty well answered that earlier but I’ll expand on the factors I weight the most:
— Try to avoid back to backs
— Factor in non-scoring stats more than scoring and for that reason I usually start my builds from the bottom up. C, PF, SF etc.
— For the non C slots I like to try to build a lineup that has the guy I think will score the highest along with a value pick – I guess more of a studs and duds when i can.
— I will focus heavily on high total games with tight spreads and avoid slow pace teams (which would have ruled out the two grizzlies i used last night in most cases).
— Look for imperfect information situations – so guys who will get much higher usage due to injury/rest.
— Focus on players with minutes trending higher.
— I also want 5x value for each spot.
RotoGrinders: You only entered one lineup – is this your typical approach on an NBA slate? How do you go about focusing on certain players?
Jeremy: Think this is answered mostly above – but yes, typically one lineup – though I may throw a late slate in the mix as well as main. Since I’m on the west coast I like to think I have a slightly better edge in those matchups that east coast players aren’t watching. But last night was all early slate strangely.
RotoGrinders: You had a huge six-figure night. What was your immediate reaction? Any plans for an extravagant purchase? If no, what are your plans with the bankroll increase?
Jeremy: I knew I was doing well when I left the office, but figured it was due to being overweight on early games. But when I got home I was in 1st and I couldn’t believe it – I actually refused to believe it. I was scrambling to try and figure out if it was just a cruel hoax and the late games would overwhelm me. When Portland/Utah went to OT I thought I was done for. It felt like I had stacked 100k at the surfline and if i looked away, the next wave was going to sweep it back out to sea. I was mostly preparing myself to have won and then lost six figures in hours. But i never lost it. The adrenaline rush has been indescribable – though I’d say Q3 of the Clippers game it was quite uncomfortable – I wanted out of my own skin. My wife has been working two jobs and me full time while raising three girls – we’re doing well, but we’ve been burning the candle on both ends to survive in the Bay area. Last Sunday, I decided to book us a trip to Maui for the holidays as a much needed break – and then this week i was worrying we couldn’t really afford it. Needless to say, that’s not a worry now. The rest will go into savings – with three girls I’m sure to need it down the line. That said, I will probably leave more than the $18 i came into last night in the account and keep doing what I’m doing – but splurge on the $4 entries now.
RotoGrinders: Tell us about each lineup spot in your lineup. What were your thought processes on utilizing the players that you did?
Jeremy: Brief overall background – I put this lineup together four minutes before lock. I was busy all day yesterday and didn’t check RotoGrinders or even have time to check the total and spreads. I had looked at the slate and decided multiple times in the day that I had no edge, but I checked one last time and saw Conley change from GTD to out as I was browsing and thought, now I may just have one. This was too late for a lot of people to jump on
— Mario Chalmers – I couldn’t decide between Chalmers and Evans so I went with both. I’ve seen a number of lineups succeed in the past by doubling up on the same position same team in these cases because its counter intuitive – but when the regular rotation is out the window, it’s worth a flyer
— Darren Collison – everyone’s been hating on Collison, but it’s a PG against the cavs
— Tyreke Evans – tied up with Chalmers above
— Bradley Beal – been rock steady for me all year – felt like he could reliably get to value
— Lebron James – felt like Indiana’s pace would push this game high and with the Cavs turmoil James would be giving it his all. most reliable sf for value i could find
— T.J. Warren – I honestly have no idea how i ended up on warren – i think this was the last slot i filled and i could afford him. I usually avoid the suns
— Ben Simmons – like beal, I’ve had good luck with Simmons all year – felt like solid value
— Thaddeus Young – I probably use Thad Young too much but with Turner out and a porous Cavs D I wanted Indiana bigs exposure
— Domantas Sabonis – same as Young above – never played Sabonis before though
So two main themes were, exploit the late Conley news and the Cavs D/turmoil – with a few proven studs for a foundation.
RotoGrinders: You spent a lot of time in the RG forums yesterday, after your win. It was your first forum posts in nearly a year. What made you hop on the forums? How much do you utilize RG and what are the things you utilize the most? (P.S. Quit lurking and post more!)
Jeremy: Like I said, I lurk a lot. There are a lot of smart people in the RG forums and I’m just a hobbyist so I try not to junk up the discussion. But last night when I couldn’t sleep and had no one awake to tell about my win, RG let me let some steam out. I’ll try to post more – and not just when I’ve done well.
RotoGrinders: Congrats again on the great result Jeremy and best of luck in the future!
Jeremy: Hope this is useful and I appreciate the opportunity to be forced to think about how I approach DFS and got to this point. Mostly luck, but turns out I feel like I do have more of a process than I thought.