The Reid Option: Week 10

Each week, Sammy Reid will break down each position in detail, pinpointing his favorite plays at various salary ranges. Who should we be focusing our core on this week? Read below to find out!

Week 10

Alright friends – we’re (kind of) at the midpoint of the season, where most teams have played eight games. Time for a meaningless-but-fun midseason stats intro. Off we go!

  • Your NFL co-leaders in team target share inside the 10-yard line are Zach Ertz and … Zay Jones (42.9%)
  • The only perfect kicker in the NFL (100% on both FGs and XPTs) is Jags kicker Josh Lambo
  • Only one RB is averaging more than 20 carries per game. Of course, it’s Todd Gurley
  • The only NFL QB who has thrown multiple INTs inside the 10-yard line is Jared Goff (2)
  • There have only been three kickoff return TDs and three punt return TDs in the NFL this season. Jakeem Grant has one of each, good for 33% of the NFL’s kick return TDs
  • The only NFL QB who has completed 100% of his Red Zone pass attempts is … Nathan Peterman
  • Last season, Drew Brees set the NFL record with a 72.0% completion percentage. Derek Carr currently has a 72.1% completion percentage
  • Only two players have at least three sacks and a defensive touchdown this season: Jadeveon Clowney … and Danielle Hunter – who did it all in one game on Sunday vs the Lions
  • The longest interception this season is 104 yards by Jets safety Marcus Maye … and it didn’t go for a touchdown
  • Jeff Heuerman is 2nd in the NFL among all tight ends in targets inside the 10-yard line (7)
  • Only one NFL defender has multiple sacks, multiple passes defensed, multiple forced fumbles, AND multiple fumble recoveries: Colts rookie linebacker Darius Leonard, who oh-by-the-way also leads the NFL in total tackles
  • Four teams (Rams, Chiefs, Saints, Patriots) are currently scoring 30+ points per game. Last season, zero teams scored 30+ ppg
  • Two teams are converting more than 50% of their 3rd down attempts: The Falcons (53.3%) and the Colts (52.2%)
  • Two teams are allowing opponents to convert more than 50% of their 3rd down attempts: The Bengals (55.9%) and … the Falcons (52.0%)
  • The Cleveland Browns are 1st in passes defensed (52), 2nd in forced fumbles (13), and 3rd in interceptions (13). They also lead in the NFL in turnover differential (+11) and offensive plays per game (72.6), but are just 2-6-1
  • There is just one current division leader with a negative point differential: The Redskins (-12)
  • There is just one current division cellar-dweller with a positive point differential: The Colts (+18)
  • Only two teams are undefeated on the road: The Saints (4-0) and … The Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0-1)
  • Only one NFL team is winless at home: The Giants (0-4)
  • James White leads all NFL RBs in team air yards share (13%). No other RB has more than 8%
  • Only one team in the NFL is allowing their opponents to score on at least 50% of their drives: The Oakland Raiders
  • Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL with 2,901 passing yards … QBs facing the Chiefs have thrown for an NFL-high 2,899 yards
  • Todd Gurley leads the NFL with 868 rushing yards. Six teams (Dolphins, Lions, Broncos, Cardinals, Browns, Raiders) have allowed more than 1,000 rushing yards to enemy RBs

On a typical NFL week I put together cash game lineups across multiple sites which will have significant player overlap. I diversify to take advantage of different price points on different sites, as well as hedge on the players I don’t feel as strongly about to reduce variance in a game where it’s inherent. The players I feel strongest about will be in the majority of my lineups – these are my “high exposure” picks. The “moderate exposure” players will be in roughly half of my lineups, and the “GPP” picks are higher-risk, high-reward plays that I believe will be under-owned by the masses. I can’t write up every single player I’ll be using in time to put this column out on Thursday, but I’ll do my best to give you the most pivotal plays I can. The rest is up to you.

QUARTERBACKMODERATE EXPOSURE

PATRICK MAHOMES vs ARI – So I have this theory, and just hear me out: Just play Mahomes and Gurley every Sunday. Seriously, every week we overthink this. We sit around like, “Man … Who’s the best QB value play … Oh snap … these guys have a pretty good situation-neutral pace of play … and that defense is missing their free safety … I think I’ll play Jackass QB X in cash!” Meanwhile Mahomes is just the stone nuts and throws for 350 yards and 4 touchdowns every damn week and nobody plays him in cash because he’s like $800 more than other good QBs. So I got to thinking, “why don’t I just always play the guys that smash every week?” Crazy idea, I know. Anyway, I know you probably won’t follow me on this. But I’ll let you know how it goes.

RYAN FITZPATRICK vs WASH – Look, I know people are going to use Josh McCown at an insanely cheap price, but that ain’t gonna be me, babe. I think I’ll just pay up a little more and take the YOLO-master Fitz, a man who has racked up 49.1% of his yards on throws that traveled 15+ yards downfield – the highest rate in the NFL of the last SEVEN YEARS (h/t JJ Zachariason). You want a dusty ass backup on a conservative offense with a 22.3-point implied total, or a bearded boss who sits on a throne of DGAF with a 27.3-point implied team total? Well then pay a little extra money, ya cheapskate.

RUNNING BACKHIGH EXPOSURE

KAREEM HUNT vs ARI – To the song Juicy

It was all Kareem, I choose to put flame to gasoline
Arizona defense’s head up in the guillotine
Hangin’ TDs on my wall
Every damn Sunday, KC stack, like magic superstar
I’m gonna play chalk, I don’t fade locks
Poking D like voodoo, poppin like a penny stock
Way whack if you don’t have the mack running back
With the QB to match
Remember Andy Reid? Duh-ha, duh-ha
You never thought the Chiefs offense would ball out this hard
Now they in the limelight, see the highlights
Time to get paid, blow up like my cash games
Bread winner, the opulent chicken dinner
Remember when I said Hunt was a money printer
RIP to Patrick P, Deone B, Markus G
Robert Nkemdiche, Bene Benwikere
Kareem blowin up like I said he would
Find the zone, big numbers, hard wood
It’s all good
And if you don’t know, now you know

You know very well
He’s a star
Zona won’t hold you down
Reach for the zone
You have a goal
To get me winning
Cuz you’re the only one
You’ll give me good and plenty

TODD GURLEY vs SEA – He’s only headed for the greatest RB fantasy season since LaDanian Tomlinson. What else is there to say?

RUNNING BACKMODERATE EXPOSURE

DION LEWIS vs NE – Over the last two weeks, Lewis has quietly taken over clear lead-back duties from the impossibly catatonic Derrick Henry, out-touching him 42 to 22 and out-snapping him 74% to 27%. He also presents a quickness problem for New England’s slow linebackers in the passing game, and the Titans rate to need to throw the ball plenty as a prohibitive underdog. Plus, we have the revenge game narrative, which my revenge model predicts will increase his fantasy output by roughly 20%. It’s just #math, guys.

WIDE RECEIVERHIGH EXPOSURE

TYLER BOYD vs NO – Boyd is one of the legit breakout WR stars of this season, averaging 8.3 targets per game and a 23% team target share with AJ Green in the lineup. Of course, Green is out this week, and we can reasonably expect some of his missing work to fall to Boyd here – making him a true volume WR1 in the highest O/U game of the week.

WIDE RECEIVERMODERATE EXPOSURE

JOSH GORDON @ TEN – Speaking of dudes with increased workloads in a revenge narrative spot, I present to you one Joshua Gordon – a man who should see plenty of work against PFF ratings WOAT and Belichick whipping boy Malcolm Butler. Over the past four weeks with his new team, Smokin’ Josh has garnered a .57 weighted opportunity rating, which is equal to Mike Evans’ rating on the season. At that kind of team share on a hyper-efficient offense, his price should probably be $500-$1000 more on both DK and FD; take advantage of the discount while it’s still around.

COREY DAVIS vs NE – Here’s the list of the NFL’s top receivers in weighted opportunity rating (WOPR; a combination of air yards and target share all rolled up into one number) on the season: Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Odell Beckham, Adam Thielen, Corey Davis. Look, I know the Titans offense stinks worse than a New Dehli outhouse and watching Mariota throw is worse than having someone slap your sunburn repeatedly. But the reality is that passing up CD’s volume at $4500 on DK is the equivalent of Le’Veon Bell’s holdout – you’re just torching value into ashes.

TIGHT ENDMODERATE EXPOSURE

RICKY SEALS-JONES @ KC – I’m gonna be real honest with you: I hate this position. You can pay up for Travis Kelce but then the rest of your team sucks, or you can go cheap and hope – which is my usual MO. RSJ is no sort of lock, and to be fully transparent I may not end up with him. But upon my initial run through the cheap TE pool, he looks decent enough; The Chiefs are awful against TEs (allowing the 2nd-most yards to the position) and RSJ ran a season-high number of routes last week (37) under new OC Byron Leftwich. I could see his season average of 4.0 targets per game rising to five or six this week since the Cards should have to throw all game long. It’s wishful thinking, I know. Other guys I sorta like are Chris Herndon (3.8 targets per game over his last four with a 15+ yd rec in each game), CJ Uzomah (some of AJG’s missing targets could filter down to him in a shootout game), and Nick Vannett (saw 8 targets last week when SEA trailed the whole game, as they should this week).

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMSMODERATE EXPOSURE

RAMS vs SEA – Many owners will choose to pay up for the Jets against the Buffalo, which I can’t hate on. But I’m more likely to take the $1,000 discount on DK and roll with the biggest home favorite of the week (-10) against an offense that has allowed the sixth-highest adjusted sack rate in football.

GPP PLAYS

ANDREW LUCK vs JAX – Luck has thrown the 2nd-most passes per game in the league and has the 2nd-most passing touchdowns, and he’s a home favorite with a 25-point implied team total – and yet he’s just $5500 on DraftKings because of a tough matchup. People will fade him for exactly that reason, but this is exactly the kind of spot I’m looking for in large field GPPs.

TEVIN COLEMAN @ CLE – TC doesn’t have the rushing volume or receiving floor I covet in cash, but what he does have are a very particular set of skills. Skills he has acquired over a moderate-length career. Skills that make him a nightmare for a crap-tastic defense like the Browns, who have allowed the 2nd-most touchdowns (13) and the third-most overall fantasy points per game (25.5) to villain RBs. If you play Coleman this week, that’ll be the end of it. But if you don’t, he will look for the endzone, he will find the endzone, and he will kill you in GPPs.

DAVID JOHNSON @ KC – It was an encouraging first game with new OC Byron Leftwich for DJ, who ran a season-high 30 routes (h/t Evan Silva) to go along with a season-high tying 41 receiving yards. This week he draws a favorable matchup against a Chiefs defense which has been the most generous giver of RB fantasy points in the NFL (27.0 per game) – including the most touchdowns through the air (5) and the 2nd-most receptions (7.3) and yards per game (70.4).

KEENAN ALLEN @ OAK – KA ranks 6th in the NFL in team target share (28%), has amassed 707 total yards (88.4 per game), and has seen 6 targets in the Red Zone, yet has just one touchdown on the season. Positive regression is coming soon, and there would be no better time than against a Raiders pass defense that is allowing the most net yards per pass attempt (8.6) to opposing teams.

JOHN ROSS vs NO – The man with more receiving touchdowns than Julio Jones makes his Ali-like return to the ring this weekend – just in time to step into a starting role with AJG on the shelf. It remains to be seen how he’s deployed so he’s far too thin of a play in cash games, but his deep speed and the chance that stud CB Marcus Lattimore trails Tyler Boyd and opens Ross up for solid volume makes him an appealing dart throw in GPPs.

MARQUEZ VALDES-SCANTLING vs MIAMVS’s target share numbers aren’t incredible (16% w/o Geronimo Allison in the lineup) but his production has been: He’s hit the 100-yard bonus or found paydirt in each of his past four outings, and Aaron Rodgers trusts him deep. You either believe or you don’t – and I do.

Thanks for reading, everyone! Let’s go make some money in Week 10.

About the Author

  • Sammy Reid (SammyReid)

  • Sammy is a former online poker professional and Hearts champion who has been playing competitive fantasy sports for more than 15 years. A student of both sports and game theory, Sammy has been grinding DFS cash games since 2013. You can find more of his work in the 2017 edition of Joe Pisapia’s Fantasy Black Book, at FantasyInsiders.com, RosterCoach.com, and the Baseballholics Anonymous podcast.

Comments

  • boogereatingmoron

    • 2017 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    • 2017 DraftKings NFL KOTB Finalist

    Good stuff Sammy. Glad to have the article back this week.

  • DooDoo5220

    Awesome page this week!!! And the song is dope……I played the song to the lyrics!

  • Memphis36

    Nice content!

  • BobbyFi

    • 204

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #37

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • 2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2016 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    Phenomenal stuff as always

  • SammyReid

    Thanks boys! Best of luck this week!

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