Three Sneaky Home Run Calls: Monday, August 26th
Nothing accrues more fantasy points than home runs, this we know. But what is even better than rostering a player who goes yard? Rostering a player who goes yard that not a lot of other DFS players have in their lineups. The goal of this article is to find some sneaky home run calls with the help of some of our most useful RotoGrinders tools, such as MLB Weather, PlateIQ, and MLB Ballpark Factors.
HOME RUN CALLS
1) Jose Osuna, Pittsburgh Pirates
Opposing pitcher: Jason Vargas
FanDuel price tag: $2,400
FanDuel position: 3B
According to our BallPark Factors page, Citizens Bank Park is THE best park in the league for righty home runs. Yes, even better than Coors Field and even better than Arlington. So on a slate with plenty of third base options in the mid-to-high $3,000’s, I think we can go searching for a home run about $1,000 cheaper with Osuna.
For his career (which dates back to 2017), he has actually posted a .215 ISO against LHP. While it hasn’t quite been that high in 2019 (.176 ISO), the batted ball profile still looks pretty decent in this split (31.7% line drives, 39% hard contact). Besides, we are talking about a guy who is only $400 above the minimum here.
With the huge park shift in his advantage (PNC Park, conversely, is one of the worst parks for righty home runs) and facing a guy in Vargas who allows plenty of hard hit (37.5% hard contact) flyballs (43.1% FB%), I love Osuna’s chances at going deep tonight. And his cheap price tag will allow you to pay up at starting pitcher (Sonny Gray anyone) and a few other positions as well.
2) Tom Murphy, Seattle Mariners
Opposing pitcher: J.A. Happ
FanDuel price tag: $3,000
FanDuel position: C/1B
There are just so many contextual factors in Murphy’s corner tonight that are going to make him severely low owned on FanDuel. For one, we know right off the bat that catchers are habitually lower owned on FanDuel since you don’t HAVE to roster one. Tonight will be no different.
Secondly, Happ might even be somewhat popular on FanDuel tonight as a way to jam in expensive stacks/hitters thanks to an extremely low $6,500 price tag. That naturally would lower ownership on any Mariners hitters, even adding in a bit of leverage off of some spiked Happ ownership.
The thing is though, Happ really isn’t that good anymore. And that is especially the case against righties. In 419 plate appearances in the split this season, he has allowed a .364 wOBA and .245 ISO thanks to 41% flyballs and 41% hard contact. His strikeouts against righties are now well below average too (19.1%).
That is good news for Murphy, whose one big weakness against RHP is striking out (massive 33% K% in the split this season). However, when Murphy hit ball, ball go far. He has ‘only’ posted a .472 wOBA and .424 ISO against LHP thanks to 48.3% hard contact and a massive 62% flyball rate.
We pretty much know that his at-bats versus Happ will end one of three ways: strikeout, home run, or flyout. With Happ’s declining strikeouts, I’ll certainly take my chances that Murphy is able to take Happ deep tonight.
3) Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics
Opposing pitcher: Brad Keller
FanDuel price tag: $3,300
FanDuel position: C/1B
I never like putting a guy with 26 home runs on this list. However, there are enough good first base options, even on a seven-game slate, that I think Olson will stay a bit under the radar tonight. He always seems to go overlooked most nights anyways unless he is playing in an elite hitting park. Since that isn’t the case tonight (Kauffman Stadium is a bad park for home runs), I think that can work in our favor when it comes to ownership.
But Olson is one of those guys that hits no-doubters a lot of the time, so I have no problem searching for home runs here despite the bad ballpark. He is the ideal candidate to take against Brad Keller, a guy who gets below average strikeouts (19.2%) against lefties with average groundballs (48.1%). Olson, of course, is a high strikeout (26.5% K%) bat with a heavy flyball lean (45.9% FB%). Throw in 50% hard contact in the split this season, and you can see why he has posted a .257 ISO. Like I said, ideal candidate!
This $3,300 price tag on Olson meshes perfect with roster construction if you are trying to pay up for Sonny Gray. And if Keller is somehow able to stifle Olson, you always have that bad Kansas City bullpen (4.74 xFIP according to PlateIQ Premium Leaderboard) behind him that is chock-full of more RHP.
You can follow Andy Means on Twitter @ameansy