Three Sneaky Home Run Calls: Monday, May 13th
Nothing accrues more fantasy points than home runs, this we know. But what is even better than rostering a player who goes yard? Rostering a player who goes yard that not a lot of other DFS players have in their lineups. The goal of this article is to find some sneaky home run calls with the help of some of our most useful RotoGrinders tools, such as MLB Weather, PlateIQ, and MLB Starting Lineups.
HOME RUN CALLS
1) Ryon Healy, Seattle Mariners
Opposing pitcher: Mike Fiers
FanDuel price tag: $2,700
FanDuel position: 3B
Did Mike Fiers throw a no-hitter in his last start? Yes. Do I care? No.
I will trust the long track record of him being a pitcher that gives up hard hit flyballs to righties. Since the start of 2018, PlateIQ tells us that he has allowed a .325 wOBA and .200 ISO to that side of the plate thanks to 44% flyballs and 40.5% hard contact. Healy himself has posted a .207 ISO in that same timeframe against RHP.
And since Healy will most likely be hitting at the bottom of the order (RotoGrinders has him projected to hit eighth), that will go a long way towards keeping ownership down on him. At $2,700, I think he is the perfect cheap one-off in tournaments and someone to keep in mind for your Seattle stacks. He has a very good chance of taking Fiers deep tonight.
2) Mike Moustakas, Milwaukee Brewers
Opposing pitcher: Aaron Nola
FanDuel price tag: $3,300
FanDuel position: 2B
It is likely that Nola might be popular tonight due to his depressed price tag and matchup against a strikeout-heavy Brewers lineup. That alone should keep ownership down on Moose Tacos, but the threat of a long ball is absolutely still there for a few different reasons.
The first is the park. Moose’s home park (Miller Park) is way more known for being friendly to lefty power (and rightfully so), but Citizens Bank Park is right behind it. So make no mistake about it: this is still a great park for home runs.
The other thing that has me looking towards Moose is based on how much Nola has not looked like himself this year. His swinging strikes are way down this season; the SwStr% currently sits at 8.7% after it being 12.4% in 2018. And he is struggling mightily against lefties through these first eight starts, allowing a .430 wOBA and .242 ISO in 76 plate appearances.
With how much Moose has crushed RHP since the start of 2018 (.349 wOBA, .235 ISO), he has a much better chance of taking Nola deep tonight than most might think. Not only he is a great leverage play if Nola is popular, but he also has a much higher ceiling than the likely chalk of the night at second base, Jason Kipnis.
3) David Peralta, Arizona Diamondbacks
Opposing pitcher: Nick Kingham
FanDuel price tag: $4,200
FanDuel position: OF
Peralta did hit 30 dingers in 2018, so this isn’t “sneaky” in the truest sense of the word. However, at $4,200 on FanDuel, he is priced as the sixth most expensive outfielder on the slate. So the home run itself (we hope, at least) may not be sneaky, but rostering Peralta very well might be.
The numbers versus lefties since the start of 2018 for opposing pitcher Nick Kingham, per PlateIQ, look quite tasty. Have a look:
.411 wOBA
.308 ISO
41% flyballs
36% hard contact
Since Peralta has a groundball lean, we would much prefer to take him in matchups against flyball pitchers like this one with Kingham. While other DFS owners are paying for other options that are either more (Trout, Harper, Yelich, etc.) or less (Khris Davis, Haniger, Ohtani, etc.) than Peralta, enjoy the low ownership you should be able to get him at tonight. Hopefully, he can reward us with a huge night to send us up the leaderboards.
You can follow Andy Means on Twitter @ameansy