Three Sneaky Home Run Calls: Monday, September 16th
Nothing accrues more fantasy points than home runs, this we know. But what is even better than rostering a player who goes yard? Rostering a player who goes yard that not a lot of other DFS players have in their lineups. The goal of this article is to find some sneaky home run calls with the help of some of our most useful RotoGrinders tools, such as MLB Weather, PlateIQ, and MLB Ballpark Factors.
HOME RUN CALLS
1) Mitch Garver, Minnesota Twins
Opposing pitcher: Reynaldo Lopez
FanDuel price tag: $3,200
FanDuel position: C/1B
We know by now that catchers go much lower owned on FanDuel since you don’t technically have to play one. And if DFS owners are looking in that pool tonight, you’d have to think they go for Wilson Ramos in Coors Field for $100 cheaper. Furthermore, with Garver not even having the platoon advantage against Lopez, he will easily go overlooked tonight.
But Garver has still flashed plenty of power in this split. Per PlateIQ, he has still posted a massive .340 ISO in .211 plate appearances against RHP this season. In fact, 19 of his 30 home runs have come off of righties.
Lopez himself has some decent strikeout ability against righties (23.5%), so that brings plenty of risk to the table for Garver considering how much he strikes out against RHP (26.5%). However, Lopez has also allowed a .219 ISO to righties this season thanks to 35% hard contact and 42.7% flyballs.
Garver has a great chance to take Lopez deep tonight, and absolutely no one will play him thanks to the depth of this position (Ramos, Alonso, Olson, Murphy, etc.). Use that to your advantage in tournaments as a one-off or part of Twins stacks.
2) Mike Moustakas, Milwaukee Brewers
Opposing pitcher: Garrett Richards
FanDuel price tag: $3,300
FanDuel position: 3B
Speaking of guys who will go low owned thanks to a deep position, let’s take a look at Moose Tacos.
Moose has shown no limitations from the wrist injury that sidelined for a bit, blasting three home runs in the past week. That is a great sign considering the manager said he “couldn’t even swing a bat” a little over a week ago.
The pitcher he will be facing is a guy who is returning from an injury of his own. Richards had Tommy John surgery in July and will be making his first start in the bigs since then. When he has been able to pitch, Richards has been great against lefties. For example, PlateIQ shows us that he struck out 27.8% of lefties last season in the 169 plate appearances, while only allowing a .285 wOBA and .153 ISO.
But can we really expect Richards to jump right in and be that guy again? I certainly don’t think so and, even if he is, the plate skills from Moustakas can still allow him to do some damage. Moustakas has posted a .285 ISO in the split this season on 42% hard contact and 47.7% fly balls.
And let’s not forget either that, when looking at our Park Factors, this is an above average park for lefty home runs. While everyone is playing the likes of Nolan Arenado, Matt Chapman, etc. (and rightfully so), let’s not forget about Moose Tacos.
3) Jorge Soler, Kansas City Royals
Opposing pitcher: Tanner Roark
FanDuel price tag: $3,900
FanDuel position: OF
This is one of those instances where it isn’t going to be ‘sneaky’ if Soler hits a homer, but rather it will be sneaky to actually roster him tonight.
(Side note: I almost fell out of my seat when I saw that he has hit 44 home runs this year. I knew he had a lot, but I didn’t know that he had that many.)
There are a few different reasons as to why I think Soler will be sneaky tonight. For one, I am seeing Tanner Roark is popping in some projection models as a great point-per-dollar play at pitcher tonight. If he is going to gain some traction, that will naturally keep DFS owners off of Royals bats.
And secondly, just look at all of the intriguing outfield options in this general price range tonight. We have Conforto ($3,900) and McNeil ($3,800) in Coors Field, along with their cheaper teammate Nimmo ($3,200). Charlie Blackmon is $4,100 (albeit in a L/L matchup), while Ian Desmond is $3,300. The trio of powerful Twins outfielders (Cruz, Kepler, Rosario) are all between $3,000-$3,800. So tell me, who exactly will be rostering Jorge Soler tonight?
Of course, I could throw some more PlateIQ numbers at you regarding Soler and Roark. But what this really comes down to is getting a guy with the fourth most home runs in the league against an average starting pitcher at, what, 5% ownership?? That certainly has a nice ring to it.
You can follow Andy Means on Twitter @ameansy