Today's Hitter Breakdown: April 16th
The only real break one gets when playing MLB DFS is Sunday night and Monday afternoons. This is great for a while, but during the MLB all-star break it is one of the worst experiences as there is no DFS to be had. Tonight, there is a Fanduel DFBC qualifier which should be wide open since Primetime420 has already won his 2 seats.
There are lots of good matchups today as many of these are team’s 5th starters before they roll around to their aces in the next couple of days. No players from the NYM and Colorado game was used as most of them would make for good plays playing at Coors, unless the weather stops that game again. Lance Berkman is so old, he remembers when the Houston Astros won baseball games.
Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Hafner | 1.104 | 0.333 | 0.426 | 1.09 | McCarthy – R | 7.71 | 0.333 |
| Starlin Castro | 1.138 | 0.349 | 0.358 | 1.01 | Holland – L | 2.4 | 0.143 |
| Lance Berkman | 0.888 | 0.448 | 0.473 | 1.01 | Wood – L | 1.46 | 0.25 |
| Trevor Plouffe | 0.611 | 0.241 | 0.333 | 1.06 | Vargas – L | 4.76 | 0.429 |
| Josh Hamilton | 1.047 | 0.281 | 0.314 | 1.02 | Pelfrey – R | 7.36 | 0.303 |
| Pedro Alvarez | 0.349 | 0.13 | 0.142 | 0.92 | Westbrook – R | 0 | 0.125 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 0.865 | 0.412 | 0.472 | 1.08 | Kendrick – R | 5.4 | 0.406 |
| Coco Crisp | 0.929 | 0.3 | 0.458 | 0.96 | Peacock – R | 4.82 | 0.31 |
| Chris Davis | 1.049 | 0.375 | 0.547 | 1.04 | Hernandez – R | 6.08 | 0.444 |
| Jason Heyward | 0.419 | 0.097 | 0.247 | 1 | Guthrie – R | 3.55 | 0.087 |
- Travis Hafner has actually been solid for the Yankees this year and should continue to be a source of power. He gets McCarthy at Yankee stadium which isn’t good news for the right hander, especially since Hafner is 6 for 15 off McCarthy in his career with 2 home runs.
- Starlin Castro has been using the bat well recently, with a nice high OPS in the last 7 games. His fielding is another story, but we don’t worry about that in DFS. Here he will face Holland who he has 3 at bats against with a homer, and should be able to do some damage today.
- In his old age, Lance Berkman is starting off the season on fire with a monster wOBA. Travis Wood has been good this year, but he has been awful against Berkman in his career as the Big Puma has knocked him around for 7 hits in 11 at bats with 2 home runs.
- One thing to know abaout Trevor Plouffe is that he is a lefty killer. Last year his home run rate against left handers was double what it was against right handers. Willingham does this as well, but Willingham has a pretty terrible BVP against Vargas, so if I had to choose I would roll with Plouffe.
- Man, did Josh Hamilton suck it up last night in a situation which should have been super juicy for him. He gets almost the same situation here and I still can’t say no. Hamilton is like a bad drug which keeps you coming back for more and then when he goes 0/4 with 3 strikeouts the hangover ensues.
- Pedro Alvarez is the only day game player on the list, as he has some trends that I find fascinating. The guy is basically worthless against left handers, so it’s good he is against Westbrook today. He loves to strike out, but has only struck out once in 19 at bats against Westbrook and also gotten 11 hits in thos 19 at bats. The other thing I find interesting is that last year he hit 18 home runs in 177 day game at bats and 12 home runs in 348 night at bats. Take what you will from that, but if you are in a game that includes the day game I don’t think you can say no.
- I love the matchup that Shin-Soo Choo has every time he faces a right hander at Great American Ballpark. Add that into the fact that he is on fire to start the season, and that the right hander is Kyle Kendrick who he has smashed 2 homers off of in 3 at bats, and you get a nice situation for the Choo Choo.
- Coco Crisp has just been tearing opposing pitchers up all through this season so far, and gets an inexperienced Brad Peacock here who he has already roughed up earlier this season.
- Chris Davis has a .547 (!) wOBA to start the season which is incredibly high and will lead to a ton of fantasy points. Roberto Hernandez Carmona has not been too good this year and could serve up a beach ball for Davis to knock out of the park.
- It’s been a horrendous start for Jason Heyward, but have no fear, Jeremy Guthrie is here and will fix all of the woes. Heyward has taken Guthrie deep previously, and will get some nice protection with how the Braves lineup has been hitting. He should be super cheap and easy to plug in for a guy with 2 HR potential.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Youkilis | 0.718 | 0.414 | 0.416 | 0.98 | McCarthy – R | 7.71 | 0.406 |
| Matt Kemp | 0.5 | 0.242 | 0.206 | 0.91 | Marquis – R | 3.27 | 0.148 |
| Andre Ethier | 0.808 | 0.407 | 0.366 | 0.95 | Marquis – R | 3.27 | 0.238 |
| Adam Dunn | 0.195 | 0.148 | 0.206 | 1.01 | Johnson – R | 11.05 | 0.143 |
| Everth Cabrera | 1.027 | 0.3 | 0.339 | 0.95 | Capuano – L | 0 | 0.3 |
| Billy Butler | 1.105 | 0.241 | 0.386 | 0.92 | Medlen – R | 1.5 | 0.304 |
| Salvador Perez | 0.959 | 0.341 | 0.287 | 0.92 | Medlen – R | 1.5 | 0.333 |
| Jesus Montero | 0.523 | 0.242 | 0.197 | 0.93 | Fister – R | 2.77 | 0.227 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.542 | 0.278 | 0.271 | 0.97 | Haren – R | 9 | 0.176 |
| Jason Kipnis | 0.431 | 0.182 | 0.158 | 1.03 | Doubront – L | 5.4 | 0.176 |
- Kevin Youkilis has been hitting right handers like he knows what he is doing this season. I think this is an aberration, and not the norm and will regress back to his career average against right handers. This right hander, McCarthy, he has especially struggled against going 1 for 14.
- Of all the people to struggle against Matt Kemp has chosen Jason Marquis as his kryptonite. Kemp has always been better against left handers than right handers but against Marquis he is really bad; he has only managed 3 hits in 20 at bats, all singles. He is ice cold to start the season and there should be better options out there.
- Andre Ethier is in somewhat of the same boat as Kemp, however it is unusual for Ethier to struggle against a right hander. Whatever it is, he is 3 for 26 off of Marquis and could struggle again in Dodger Stadium.
- Adam Dunn has some of the ugliest numbers you will ever see, but he has the ability to change the game with one swing. I cannot stand using him in formats which subtract for strikeouts because there are so many times where he will go 0-4 with 3KOs. Hes been awful recently and gets to bat against Josh Johnson whose ERA is inflated because of one terrible start against the Tigers. Dunn has struck out in half of his 24 plate appearances against Johnson.
- Everth Cabrera has actually been pretty solid for the Padres recently, but here he gets Capuano who has been stellar in his relief appearances. Cabrera is 1 for 6 against Capuano and really struggled against left handed pitching last year.
- I always think that Billy Butler is one of the most underrated hitters in the country as he gets forgotten in Kansas City. As good as he is and has been, he has a bad matchup against Medlen at Turner Field. This is the lowest over/under game of the day and I’m wanting to avoid it.
- The thing that concerns me most about Salvador Perez is that he has a .341 BABIP and is currently only sitting at a .287 wOBA. If his balls in play start getting fielded with more regularity, he is not going to be a fantasy asset whatsoever. Granted, this is a small sample, but he’s got a non-existent walk rate, a bad K% and is not hitting home runs; plus today he is against Medlen in Turner field.
- The bad start for Jesus Montero could keep getting worse as he now has to face Doug Fister who is almost unhittable when he is throwing his good stuff. Montero is another guy with a BABIP higher than wOBA and both of those numbers are horrid right now. The Seattle offense is pretty bad without Morse, so in a low scoring game they aren’t to be chosen.
- I do not know if Giancarlo Stanton will be back Tuesday, but just ignore him anyways. I am going to be avoiding him until his price goes way down because he just doesn’t have the upside in this Miami offense. He is also ice cold right now and coming off an injury. There are safer options.
- It appears that Jason Kipnis has been bothered by an elbow issue which he will get examined before Tuesday’s game. I hoped something was effecting his terrible performance so far as he has been one of the bigger hitting disappointments. He should come around eventually, but this won’t be the time that he comes around.