Today's Hitter Breakdown: April 3rd
Getting back to the MLB grind is fun, and sweating the MLB games is a completely different experience than basketball as one swing of the bat can really change your position; it is actually a refreshing change although I am still enjoying playing some basketball since King of the Court is coming up on Friday. Today brings a full slate of games starting at 2:10pm EST so if you are playing early make sure you get those lineups in.
Like I noted before, all numbers are from last year’s stats until we can get at least a week of data from this year. I imagine they will be using the retractable roof everywhere except Arizona, and the wind is negligible in Arizona today. I also am attempting to pick big name players who may flame out instead of picking the 9th spot hitter on the Houston Astros for an avoid since that would seem kind of silly.
Today’s Hitters to Target
Today’s Hitters to Target
Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.817 | 0.31 | 0.352 | 1.02 | Slowey – R | 6.67 | 0.286 |
| Robinson Cano | 0.929 | 0.326 | 0.394 | 1.09 | Buchholz – R | 4.56 | 0.359 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.999 | 0.331 | 0.417 | 1.06 | Correia – R | 4.21 | 0.335 |
| Norichika Aoki | 0.788 | 0.304 | 0.304 | 1.03 | Nicasio – R | 5.28 | 0.299 |
| Dexter Fowler | 0.836 | 0.39 | 0.375 | 1.03 | Peralta – R | 2.48 | 0.293 |
| Miguel Montero | 0.829 | 0.362 | 0.364 | 1.06 | Lynn – R | 3.78 | 0.299 |
| Matt Carpenter | 0.828 | 0.346 | 0.355 | 1.06 | McCarthy – R | 3.24 | 0.308 |
| Alejandro De Aza | 0.759 | 0.339 | 0.333 | 1.07 | Santana – R | 5.16 | 0.291 |
| Adam Lind | 0.728 | 0.282 | 0.316 | 1.01 | Jiminez – R | 5.4 | 0.276 |
| Freddie Freeman | 0.796 | 0.295 | 0.342 | 1 | Halladay – R | 4.49 | 0.276 |
| Brandon Phillips | 0.75 | 0.298 | 0.325 | 0.97 | Wilson – L | 3.83 | 0.269 |
| Ben Zobrist | 0.848 | 0.296 | 0.365 | 0.91 | Chen – L | 4.02 | 0.308 |
| Scott Hairston | 0.803 | 0.287 | 0.342 | 0.92 | Rodriguez – L | 3.99 | 0.286 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | 0.607 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.09 | Buchholz – R | 4.56 | 0.283 |
| Brett Gardner | 0.804 | 0.417 | 0.362 | 1.09 | Buchholz – R | 4.56 | 0.268 |
The first thing that sticks out to me in the matchups today is the Lefties at Yankee Stadium. It appears to be a perfect day for the short porch to be used, and I think there is value to be found on Suzuki and Gardner. Not only is there value there, but Cano has a history of beating up on Buchholz, and he should have a big game. There are a lot of not so good right handers on the mound, and Harper and Cabrera should be able to take care of Slowey and Correia, respectively. I like Aoki here as he started out with a homer on opening day and now gets Nicasio whom he should be able to rough up. I am still not giving up on Lind or De Aza after they strugged in their starts, and both have a favorable matchup against a right hander who isn’t that great. Scott Hairston has a good matchup against Wandy Rodriguez who he is 7/19 with 2 homers off of. Zobrist may be one of my favorite fantasy players when he has a good matchup like this because he can get points in multiple different ways and sports one of the best walk rates in the majors.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS – Last7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | Opp-SP ERA (Last7) | vs L/R | WLK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ike Davis | 0.801 | 0.247 | 0.331 | 0.97 | Richard – L | 3.99 | 0.174 | 0.104 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 0.807 | 0.334 | 0.346 | 0.95 | Lincecum – R | 5.18 | 0.286 | 0.061 |
| Matt Kemp | 0.905 | 0.354 | 0.383 | 0.91 | Lincecum – R | 5.18 | 0.276 | 0.089 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 0.814 | 0.353 | 0.359 | 1.08 | Wilson – L | 3.83 | 0.199 | 0.106 |
| Josh Willingham | 0.89 | 0.287 | 0.38 | 1.06 | Sanchez – R | 3.74 | 0.273 | 0.124 |
| Trevor Plouffe | 0.756 | 0.244 | 0.327 | 1.06 | Sanchez – R | 3.74 | 0.232 | 0.08 |
| Desmond Jennings | 0.702 | 0.298 | 0.309 | 0.91 | Chen – L | 4.02 | 0.245 | 0.082 |
| Mark Reynolds | 0.764 | 0.282 | 0.335 | 0.91 | Hellickson – R | 3.1 | 0.219 | 0.134 |
| Dayan Viciedo | 0.744 | 0.286 | 0.321 | 1.05 | Santana – R | 5.16 | 0.225 | 0.052 |
| Hunter Pence | 0.744 | 0.29 | 0.323 | 0.91 | Beckett – R | 2.93 | 0.259 | 0.081 |
Choo finds himself on this list just a game removed from being on the target list, simple reason is he is going up against another lefty. Viciedo is also on this list because he cannot hit right handers and should struggle again today. I don’t typically like to use BVP, but Desmond Jennings is 0/12 against Wei-Yen Chen in his career, and I would like to see Jennings get a hit against Chen before I would use him. It looks like another pitchers duel in the Giants/Dodgers game, and I don’t like the matchup that Kemp and Gonzalez have against Lincecum. Actually, Gonzalez has been pretty terrible over a decent sample against Lincecum in his career. I would avoid both Willingham and Plouffe as both of their power comes against lefties, and they don’t bring much to the table against righties. If Anibal Sanchez is throwing his best stuff, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them combine for 0/8 with 4 K’s. Pence is in the same boat as Kemp and Gonzalez in that he is playing in a park which hates right handers and is playing a game with the lowest over/under of the night.