Today's Hitter Breakdown: April 9th
It looks like this day could be our first big weather problem day as there are multiple games with 50%+ chance of storms during game time. Keep an eye on the weather and make adjustments as necessary.
I have switched over the pitcher’s ERA numbers to this year’s numbers, however batter’s numbers are still from last year. This year’s numbers should be going up next article or the one after that. There are a couple of important qualifiers out there tonight, so go put in some solid lineups and grab your seats to the bigger tournaments.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mauer | 0.861 | 0.364 | 0.376 | 1.03 | Guthrie – R | 1.5 | 0.336 |
| Justin Upton | 0.785 | 0.327 | 0.341 | 0.97 | LeBlanc – L | 3.6 | 0.275 |
| Matt Kemp | 0.906 | 0.354 | 0.383 | 0.97 | Richard – L | 14.54 | 0.363 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.805 | 0.31 | 0.349 | 0.95 | Peralta – R | 6.75 | 0.318 |
| Joey Votto | 1.041 | 0.404 | 0.438 | 1.02 | Lynn – R | 9 | 0.359 |
| David Murphy | 0.859 | 0.333 | 0.369 | 1.1 | Hernandez – R | 5.4 | 0.296 |
| Nelson Cruz | 0.779 | 0.301 | 0.335 | 1.05 | Hernandez – R | 5.4 | 0.244 |
| Ryan Howard | 0.718 | 0.287 | 0.303 | 0.97 | Gee – R | 1.42 | 0.247 |
| Ryan Doumit | 0.781 | 0.306 | 0.332 | 1.03 | Guthrie – R | 1.5 | 0.288 |
| Robinson Cano | 0.929 | 0.326 | 0.374 | 1.03 | Carrasco – R | 4.62 | 0.359 |
- Joe Mauer has somewhat struggled to begin the year, however he gets a pitcher in Jeremy Guthrie who he should have a field day with. Mauer is 5 for 10 in his career with 3 walks and 0 strikeouts. Guthrie was good in his first game, but he has terrible splits against Minnesota so they should be able to put up some runs.
- Justin Upton has had an incredible start to the season, and it’s impossible to ignore what he is doing in Atlanta right now. If his price isn’t too high, he should be used even with poor BVP numbers against LeBlanc.
- Matt Kemp has had a pretty terrible start to the season but gets a Christmas morning type of matchup here against Clayton Richard who was awful in his first start. Kemp should be pretty cheap and be able to smash one today.
- Anthony Rizzo could be affected by the weather here, however I like his matchup against Peralta. Rizzo is a much better hitter against right handers and gets to face a pretty bad one. He should also be able to be found pretty cheap.
- It amazes me at how cheap Joey Votto is around the industry. He is a stud who plays in a good offensive team so he will have his opportunities. Not only that, but he has a nice matchup against Lynn in this one and should be able to do some damage.
- David Murphy has been struggling out of the gate but should be picking it up. His wOBA from last year is not bad, and I would expect him to produce fantasy-wise sooner rather than later, especially in Rangers Ballpark. He is dirt cheap and facing Fausto Carmona, or Roberto Hernandez or whatever his name is so Rangers runs could be plentiful. Not to mention he is also 7/14 in his career against Fausto.
- Nelson Cruz is about the same analysis as Murphy, however his success against Fausto is more in terms of power. These two will be hitting around each other and make a nice cheap option to stack.
- You have to take Ryan Howard numbers from the year before with a grain of salt. He is still a hitter with a bunch of power and gets a nice matchup with Dillon Gee who struggles to get lefties out. The Phillies have some major issues and they need Howard back to his home run hitting ways.
- Ryan Doumit makes another interesting play against Guthrie. Doumit is a terrible defender, and still has a job because he makes up for it with the bat. He is much better against right handers, and Guthrie is looking ripe for the picking.
- The ERA for Carrasco is from 2011, his last year in the majors. Robinson Cano had a monster game last night and will look to continue it against another bad right hander (yes, Jiminez is now a bad right hander). This game should be windy and could get pretty ugly if Pettite is shutting down the Indians.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hamilton | 0.93 | 0.32 | 0.387 | 0.91 | Parker – R | 7.2 | 0.282 |
| Mark Trumbo | 0.808 | 0.316 | 0.346 | 1 | Parker – R | 7.2 | 0.269 |
| Coco Crisp | 0.742 | 0.28 | 0.324 | 1 | Wilson – L | 4.5 | 0.248 |
| Carlos Quentin | 0.877 | 0.252 | 0.378 | 0.97 | Beckett – R | 4.5 | 0.233 |
| Andre Ethier | 0.812 | 0.333 | 0.35 | 0.95 | Richard – L | 14.54 | 0.222 |
| Ike Davis | 0.771 | 0.246 | 0.331 | 0.97 | Lee – L | 3.16 | 0.174 |
| Adam Dunn | 0.8 | 0.246 | 0.346 | 1.02 | Gonzalez – L | 0 | 0.191 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.969 | 0.344 | 0.405 | 0.97 | Medlen – R | 3.6 | 0.285 |
| Jayson Werth | 0.882 | 0.317 | 0.375 | 0.97 | Peavy – R | 1.5 | 0.316 |
| Ryan Zimmerman | 0.824 | 0.313 | 0.352 | 0.97 | Peavy – R | 1.5 | 0.273 |
- A really interesting BVP stat is Josh Hamilton numbers against Parker. He is 0 for 8 with 6 punch outs. If I drafted Hamilton in a season long league I would be kicking myself as he is going to have a hard time hitting bombs in Angel Stadium. At least with daily fantasy, I can pick when I want to use him, and this matchup isn’t where I want to take him unless his price drops way down.
- Even with how solid the Angels lineup is, most of them have terrible BVP against Parker. Mark Trumbo is almost as bad as Hamilton with 5 strikeouts in 8 at bats. I think Parker can shut down the Angels today so I will be fading them.
- Coco Crisp, as a switch hitter, really struggles hitting from the right side. He has had a nice start to the season, but it will be up to CJ Wilson to shut him down, which he has mostly over his career. Crisp is 3/21 off Wilson in his career.
- Carlos Quentin comes into this game as San Diego’s only real threat, which is never good for fantasy purposes. In addition, he is facing Beckett who has owned him (2 for 11 with 5 strikeouts). Look for Beckett to continue his success against Carlos in Petco Park.
- I like most of the Dodgers today against Richard, however Andre Ethier would be the one I would sit. Ethier struggles against left handers extensively and has no track record against Richard (4 for 28).
- Ike Davis is lost against all left handers, and considering that this left hander he faces today is Cliff Lee, you should look elsewhere for options. Cliff Lee is solid, doesn’t walk anyone, has a high strikeout rate and has held Ike to 1 for 11 in his first 11 attempts.
- It doesn’t seem to matter which hand Adam Dunn is batting against, if he makes good contact, the ball is leaving the park. The issue here is that Gio is a solid pitcher and should be able to keep Dunn in the park. If Dunn doesn’t homer, his line gets ugly pretty fast as he fans at a ridiculous rate.
- The person who seems to be the most hurt by the moves that Miami made this offseason is Giancarlo Stanton. There is just no one around him to give him any protection, so pitchers can just pitch right around him. He is still pretty expensive on most sites, and won’t homer at a rate he did last year so I would avoid him. Also going against him is that Medlen is a pretty good opponent here.
- Jake Peavy looked solid in his last start, and is going to look to build on that start. The one guy on Washington who I would recommend sitting is Jayson Werth. Werth is much better against left handers, and has a 2 for 13 history against Peavy with 7 strikeouts.
- I still find it weird to have 2 Zimmerman(n)s on the same team. I should stay away from Ryan as well because he struggles against Peavy also to a clip of 3 for 15. If Peavy is on his game he could make it very difficult for Washington.