Today's Hitter Breakdown: August 17th
This is a very interesting Saturday where we have most of the games at 7pm or later. I included a couple of guys from the 4pm games but most are from the later session where all the action will occur. I apologize for nothing posted yesterday as poor time management due to a horrible end to the week at work basically messed me up. All in all, I am glad it is the weekend and ready for some DFS.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Davis | 1.024 | 0.345 | 0.437 | 1.09 | Bettis – R | 5.06 | 0.329 |
| Andy Dirks | 0.962 | 0.291 | 0.297 | 0.97 | Davis – R | 5.29 | 0.253 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.859 | 0.32 | 0.342 | 0.97 | Fister – R | 3.6 | 0.279 |
| Evan Longoria | 0.892 | 0.314 | 0.359 | 0.95 | Happ – L | 5.11 | 0.318 |
| Alberto Callaspo | 0.761 | 0.255 | 0.298 | 0.91 | Jimenez – R | 4.11 | 0.252 |
| Chris Carter | 1.079 | 0.289 | 0.328 | 1.04 | Richards – R | 4.04 | 0.213 |
| Sean Rodriguez | 0.334 | 0.346 | 0.309 | 0.95 | Happ – L | 5.11 | 0.258 |
| Victor Martinez | 0.822 | 0.296 | 0.323 | 0.97 | Davis – R | 5.29 | 0.289 |
| Robinson Cano | 1.144 | 0.31 | 0.375 | 1.04 | Lackey – R | 3.32 | 0.314 |
| Matt Holliday | 1.246 | 0.315 | 0.365 | 1.01 | Jackson – R | 5.05 | 0.292 |
- Fire up another round of Chris Davis home run roulette and tonight I think he does hit one. He is facing Chad Bettis who has been pretty bad putting up a 1.38 WHIP in his 3 major league starts. Davis is at home and crushes right handed pitching along with the rest of the Orioles so it looks like a long night for Bettis tonight.
- A cheap salary guy who is a great play tonight is Andy Dirks. Not sure where he will be hitting in the Tigers lineup, but the Tigers are just waiting to break out some runs and Davis is the perfect guy to do it against. Wade has given up a .957 OPS to left handers this year with 9 homers and Dirks hits right handers pretty well. I am loving cheap Tigers lefties today.
- Eric Hosmer is having a great 2nd half of the season hitting at a .328 average post all star break. He is hitting for power and his numbers are up all across the board. I like him against Fister whose K% is down this year and down from last year and is more of a ground ball pitcher. Roll with Hosmer if you can afford him.
- I am not a fan of JA Happ as he has posted a 1.5 WHIP this year and has not been good at all in the past 5 starts. Evan Longoria has crushed left handed pitchers for the entireity of his career. Some might say he is having a down year but he is still hitting lefties at a .980 OPS this year and has been decent in the last week.
- A risky pick but a cheap pick that will allow you to grab some of the more expensive hitters or pitchers is Alberto Callaspo. While he has not been that great recently, he is still a decent hitter and has been batting at the top of the Athletics lineup. Jimenez while having a decent season still has given up a 1.47 WHIP this year which is pretty terrible and consistently gives up a lot of hits while not givin up many runs.
- I love Chris Carter tonight as a not so obvious GPP play. The guy has tremendous power upside and has shown that by hitting 4 homers in the last week. He plays Richards who he is 4 for 6 off with 1 homers. Richards has been solid but Carter has a habit of homering off of pitchers who make mistakes. The strikeouts are a problem, but you can get double dong upside for a bargain with Carter.
- Earlier in the week, Joe Maddon led off Rodriguez against a left hander in Saunders and he had a solid game. I cannot predict Maddon’s lineups at this time, but if he does play Rodriguez I would definitely recommend him again. He is almost min salary on all sites and has a high ceiling especially against Happ tonight in the Rays lineup. He can allow you to spend for a guy like Trout.
- Victor Martinez has done some serious work against right handed pitching this year with 9 of his homers and a .289 average. He has been locked in lately and hits in a nice spot in the order. I have a feeling the Tigers are going to break out against Davis tonight and I am going to want Martinez as my catcher if he is still eligible at that spot.
- I do not know if you can find a better option at 2nd base tonight. Robinson Cano is red hot and credits his hot streak to the addition of Soriano and Rodriguez to the lineup giving him more protection. It makes sense, and with Soriano’s recent hot streak, Cano is getting the protection that he has always wanted and the Yankees feel pretty good about their lineup again. Lackey has been pretty meager lately and has given up a plethora of hits in his last 5 games, so roll out Cano before he gets too expensive.
- Well well, Matt Holliday was the hottest hitter on the planet going into last game. A little 0 for 4 is not going to deter me especially when he faces Travis Wood who he has had decent success off of and hit 2 homers off of in 23 at bats. Holliday usually hits lefties better than he has this year, so I am not worried about his 0 HR mark against lefties as that could very well change today.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Rodriguez | 0.967 | 0.367 | 0.358 | 1.05 | Lackey – R | 3.32 | 0.217 |
| Chase Utley | 0.59 | 0.299 | 0.362 | 1.06 | Kershaw – L | 1.88 | 0.221 |
| Domonic Brown | 1.135 | 0.281 | 0.365 | 1.06 | Kershaw – L | 1.88 | 0.246 |
| Justin Morneau | 0.637 | 0.295 | 0.322 | 1.04 | Sale – L | 2.73 | 0.217 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.476 | 0.295 | 0.347 | 0.89 | Cain – R | 4.44 | 0.231 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.571 | 0.282 | 0.373 | 1.01 | Minor – L | 2.87 | 0.176 |
| Ian Kinsler | 0.45 | 0.27 | 0.33 | 1 | Hernandez – R | 2.28 | 0.253 |
| Kyle Seager | 0.408 | 0.31 | 0.357 | 1.01 | Perez – L | 3.44 | 0.23 |
| Chase Headley | 0.3 | 0.309 | 0.308 | 1 | Mejia – R | 2.22 | 0.236 |
| Stephen Drew | 0.629 | 0.324 | 0.334 | 1.04 | Kuroda – R | 2.33 | 0.278 |
- I hope everyone watches the Alex Rodriguez Lackey(player-profile)”:/players/John_Lackey-10671 matchup tonight which should prove to be interesting as Lackey has said that A-Rod should not be playing. I do not think he will hit him however I do think Lackey has motivation to get him out. A-Rod is much better against left handed pitching and Lackey has struck him out 25 times in 58 at bats, albeit allowing 5 homers. I think Lackey does enough to hold Rodriguez down tonight with 3 strikeouts.
- If you pick Chase Utley tonight, you’re going to have a bad time. Clayton Kershaw is the ace of the year and is sporting a .87 WHIP and has allowed lefties to hit 0 homers and a .397 OPS. Utley is cold and has only hit lefties at a .221 average. Even in a lefty friendly park, this is a terrible matchup.
- Domonic Brown is in the same boat as Utley hitting against that guy named Kershaw. Brown’s numbers against lefties have cooled a bit since his DL stint and now appears to be much worse against left handers than right handers. Kershaw is just too good to let the Phillies lefties hurt him tonight.
- We go from a guy in Kershaw to a guy in Sale who also dominates left handers. Justin Morneau has been having issues against left handed pitching this year only hitting tham at a .552 OPS. Sale is not as good as Kershaw but still holds left handers to a .368 OPS and 0 homers.
- It is a shame that a talent like Giancarlo Stanton is being held back on the Marlins. If he played for the Rockies he would hit 50 homers per year at Coors Field I would imagine. Today he faces Cain who I am loving against this Marlins lineup even after what they did to Gaudin last night. Stanton has had some success against Cain, but Cain has been much better than pre all star and has only allowed 2 homers since the all star game.
- If you look at Bryce Harper stats as a whole you will see a pretty good hitter but that masks the real issues. Harper has done most of his damage early in the season with 9 homers in April, and only has 8 for the rest of the season after April. Harper is averaging just about a .700 OPS since April and cannot hit left handers. He has 2 homers all year off left handed pitching with a .176 average and .576 OPS. This is a terrible spot against Minor who has owned lefties this year.
- A very familiar matchup takes place tonight between Ian Kinsler and King Felix. They have met 82 times in their history with Felix doing most of the work holding Kinsler to a .236 average and .797 OPS. Kinsler is really struggling against right handers this year with a .253 average. He has homered 10 times off right handers but I like Felix to keep him in the park tonight.
- Martin Perez has been sparking at home with a 1.75 ERA and only 1 HR allowed. He faces the Mariners tonight who have really struggled to hit left handers especially Kyle Seager. Seager has been garbage in the last week with a .408 OPS and has only a .659 OPS against left handers the whole year. Perez has been good lately and I do not like this matchup for Seager tonight.
- I read an article earlier in the season that Chase Headley was expecting to be that cog in the middle of the lineup that drives in runs. He had a great year last year but he has been a cog in the lineup this year, only he is stopping rallies and clogging up the lineup. I like Jenrry Mejia as a low dollar sleeper option tonight against the Padres and I would avoid Headley as he is ice cold in the last week and has almost .100 points of OPS lower against righties this year.
- If you did not use Stephen Drew during his most recent hot streak, you may have missed the boat. His salary was raised to a top tier SS, and he has cooled off recently as well. He has struck out in 7 straight games and now faces Kuroda who has a very solid WHIP and ERA this season and is pitching as the Yankee’s ace. I am not a big fan of the Red Sox tonight as how things have been going so I am going elsewhere for SS production.