Today's Hitter Breakdown: August 1st
We are finally into August Grinders, and a fresh month to get out there and have some big scores, including those who are in some of the big finals. We are past the trade deadline and before September callups so the lineups are going to be more predictable in this month than they will be later.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Davis | 0.592 | 0.359 | 0.44 | 1.08 | Lyles – R | 4.92 | 0.339 |
| Adrian Beltre | 0.665 | 0.31 | 0.377 | 0.98 | Spruill – R | 2.08 | 0.309 |
| Leonys Martin | 0.77 | 0.338 | 0.324 | 1.01 | Spruill – R | 2.08 | 0.292 |
| Pedro Alvarez | 0.785 | 0.288 | 0.341 | 0.89 | Kelly – R | 3.44 | 0.252 |
| Mike Trout | 1.185 | 0.374 | 0.417 | 1.02 | Johnson – R | 6.08 | 0.327 |
| Chase Utley | 0.462 | 0.295 | 0.36 | 1.06 | Cain – R | 4.79 | 0.293 |
| Jimmy Rollins | 0.649 | 0.293 | 0.294 | 1.06 | Cain – R | 4.79 | 0.261 |
| Buster Posey | 0.301 | 0.321 | 0.382 | 1 | Hamels – L | 4.09 | 0.32 |
| Josh Hamilton | 0.866 | 0.264 | 0.302 | 1 | Johnson – R | 6.08 | 0.245 |
| Freddie Freeman | 1.215 | 0.373 | 0.377 | 0.98 | Bettis – R | 0 | 0.312 |
- Let’s play Chris Davis Home Run Roulette where you try to determine when he will hit a homer, or face multiple strikeouts. I like him to hit a homer here today as he is at home and facing a right hander in Lyles who is just not that good. His price has dropped due to his poor post all star stats and his high strikeouts so if he does not homer there is a good shot at a dud.
- I am not exactly sure how good Zeke Spruill is, and a 32 inning scoreless streak is impressive no matter where it is, but still, the minors is no major league park with major league hitters. I am going to side with Texas on this one and roll with Adrian Beltre as he does not mind facing right handed pitchers at all. Beltre homered last night and is known for his homering binges, especially in Rangers park.
- Leonys Martin is cheap everywhere and has been leading off for Texas recently. If he gets the leadoff spot again, I would not hesitate to use him. He has a bit of power and hits right handers better than left, so he should have some solid opportunites against Spruill to do some damage. I really like him as a value hitter today.
- Guys like Pedro Alvarez make it easy for us fantasy players to determine when to use him. You can just cross off any time a lefty starter is on the mound, as he is terrible against them, but he is great against right handed starters. Joe Kelly really struggled against lefties this year and is still worse against lefties this year, so Alvarez is in a solid spot. I have been good for picking the nights he homers, so lets do it again.
- Mike Trout did not really pan out in a game which looked to be a scorefest but turned out to be a pitching duel. I am giving him another chance tonight against Josh Johnson who is arguably the worst starter in the MLB right now. I mean, what happened? The guy was solid before he was injured and traded. It cannot just be the Rogers Centre right? Anyway, Johnson has allowed righties to hit a 1.016 OPS against him this year and Trout is on fire. No overthinking to be done here.
- Matt Cain seems to have figured out how to pitch again, however he has to face a team which I think could give him some fits tonight. Chase Utley has a great BVP off Cain where he is 8 for 23 with 4 homers and a 1.313 OPS. Utley is also hitting at home in a park which has been really nice to lefties this year.
- I am just not feeling the Matt Cain train today, and I think the lefties on Philly could prove to have some value. Jimmy Rollins is cheap everywhere and has always hit righties better than lefties in his career. He is only stealing bases against righties this year as well so he does have that going for him also.
- Buster Posey gets to face a lefty today, so you know what time it is. Not only does everyone know how solid he is against left handed batters, he is in a hitters park against Hamels who he has gone 5 for 7 off with a 2.286 OPS. This is a really nice spot for Posey.
- Look who has 2 homers in the last week, Josh Hamilton does. After only hitting 2 home runs in June, he hit 6 in July, and gets to face Josh Johnson tonight who has been absolutely dreadful. Hamilton only hits well against righties and this should be a solid spot for upside for the former top salary man of last year.
- Freddie Freeman is out of control with the bat right now and is hitting everything, and for power. He gets to face someone named Chad Bettis tonight, and I cannot imagine that it will be good for him with how well the Atlanta offense is going right now.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Altuve | 0.733 | 0.316 | 0.298 | 0.99 | Norris – R | 3.93 | 0.278 |
| Cody Ross | 1.345 | 0.289 | 0.313 | 0.98 | Darvish – R | 2.8 | 0.208 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 0.597 | 0.341 | 0.401 | 0.98 | Darvish – R | 2.8 | 0.306 |
| Marco Scutaro | 1 | 0.332 | 0.342 | 1 | Hamels – L | 4.09 | 0.343 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 0.857 | 0.333 | 0.414 | 0.93 | Teheran – R | 3.07 | 0.338 |
| Mike Napoli | 0.43 | 0.376 | 0.347 | 1.03 | Hernandez – R | 2.34 | 0.257 |
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 0.481 | 0.381 | 0.337 | 1.06 | Hernandez – R | 2.34 | 0.228 |
| Raul Ibanez | 0.355 | 0.27 | 0.357 | 1.06 | Dempster – R | 4.24 | 0.257 |
| Darwin Barney | 0.237 | 0.222 | 0.254 | 1.03 | Nolasco – R | 3.72 | 0.207 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 0.5 | 0.313 | 0.352 | 1.05 | Rusin – L | 2.93 | 0.278 |
- When a pitcher goes to another team, I almost feel that the pitcher has the advantage as the batter fails over 66% of the time. I am a big fan of Norris in this game against his former team and he should be able to shut down Altuve as well. No real stats matter that much to me now except his .620 OPS against right handed batters and that he has only allowed 1 HR against them.
- Staying away from Cody Ross against a right hander. It seems like simple information, but it is good not to be forgotten. Ross’ bad average against right handers and his good average against lefties tells the entire story about his salary. Darvish has not allowed right handers to do much at all this year holding them to a .510 OPS.
- Paul Goldschmidt has had a brutal week, the only positive is that 2 of his 3 hits have gone for home runs. All of the other games he is going 0 for 4. He is normally better against left handers and it was mentioned above that Darvish has been good against righties this year. Arizona’s over under is at 3.5 which is pretty bad considering it is in Texas.
- Marco Scutaro could make a popular pick tonight due to his .839 OPS against left handers this year and that he is hitting in Citizens Bank. I am going to fade him not only because the Giants offense is anemic, but because the Scutaro has had no success of Hamels going 3 for 20 with a .490 OPS. Hamels has been ok lately limiting opponents and there should not be a reason why he cannot limit the Giants.
- Troy Tulowitzki series against Atlanta has not gone as planned. He has 0 hits and only has produced one run in the 3 games so far. Tulo’s home/road splits are insane and he is only hitting .255/.838 away from Coors field. This is something to take into account especially today against Teheran who can shut down a team. The Rockies seem to be one of the easier teams to shut down away from Coors so I like Teheran today.
- This is not the time I would want to use Mike Napoli, as he faces King Felix who has owned him in his career. Napoli holds a 6 for 36 mark with 14 strikeouts against the King, and this game should not be any different. There are better options out there.
- Jarrod Saltalamacchia seems to be rotating between target and avoid these days. Normally he is a solid play against a right handed starter, however, his 5 for 25 BVP with 10 strikeouts against King Felix is nothing to be excited about. I am looking for Hernandez to really take over this game an limit the Red Sox taking away their upside.
- Is it time to give up on Raul Ibanez this year? He has never proven he can hit this many home runs in his prime so why should he be able to hit all these now? The last time he homered was July 12th, and he really has not had any productive games since then. Dempster for some reason is owning left handers this year holding them to a .679 OPS and giving up half the home runs against them, so I would be wary of the Seattle lefties tonight.
- With Alfonso Soriano gone, I have to find a Cub to pick on other than Starlin Castro, and it looks like Darwin Barney is that guy. He has been terrible lately and has even gotten some days off. With how bad he is he has managed to get 1 hit in 11 at bats against Nolasco who has held righties to a .658 OPS.
- If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em as they say. I picked on Rusin on his first 2 starts after taking over for Garza and was sorely disappointed when he did not blow up at all. He managed a shutout against San Fran and shut down the righties on Arizona in the previous start. Rusin in his short sample has only given up .481 OPS against left handers, and Adrian Gonzalez is real cold. I am sick of getting burned by Rusin so I am going to take the chance he has another good start and shuts down the Dodgers.