Today's Hitter Breakdown: August 5th
A very interesting night tonight as there is not much BVP to go on, but there are some solid pitchers going. Be careful as the suspensions are most likely coming down in a second so guys like Cruz/Peralta, etc may not play if they do not appeal, and the A-Rod situation is here which has been a bit overblown.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Konerko | 0.573 | 0.263 | 0.29 | 0.9 | Pettitte – L | 4.28 | 0.328 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.796 | 0.317 | 0.331 | 1 | Correia – R | 4.49 | 0.276 |
| Alex Gordon | 0.707 | 0.322 | 0.323 | 1 | Correia – R | 4.49 | 0.248 |
| Joe Mauer | 0.637 | 0.385 | 0.376 | 1 | Guthrie – R | 4.22 | 0.321 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 0.791 | 0.317 | 0.345 | 1.03 | Oberholtzer – L | 3.77 | 0.315 |
| Shane Victorino | 1.141 | 0.311 | 0.334 | 1.03 | Oberholtzer – L | 3.77 | 0.306 |
| Mike Trout | 1.552 | 0.37 | 0.42 | 1.02 | Perez – L | 3.93 | 0.336 |
| Adrian Beltre | 1.003 | 0.314 | 0.379 | 1.02 | Williams – R | 4.6 | 0.312 |
| Ian Desmond | 0.488 | 0.325 | 0.346 | 0.96 | Minor – L | 2.75 | 0.278 |
| Brett Lawrie | 1.025 | 0.24 | 0.302 | 0.95 | Iwakuma – R | 2.76 | 0.232 |
- An interesting off the wall play who I think could really help your team tonight is Paul Konerko. Paulie K has been pretty bad this year, but one thing he has been good at and that is hitting left handed pitchers. I am sure it pains him to see the White Sox playing like an AAA team and he will do what he can to stop that. Pettitte gives up about one homer per game and Konerko has killed against lefties this year posting a .989 OPS. There is still a bit of fantasy producting in that old frame.
- The Royals have been winning and winning, and I think the team is really finding some confidence. Guys like Hosmer and Moustakas have played a while and been stuck in the cellar, but they have a wild card to chase right now. The Royals over/under is pretty high today, and Hosmer has been a pretty effective fantasy player recently, the only thing that he is missing is walks and extra base power, and Correia could help provide that today.
- Alex Gordon has some strange splits this year as they are totally opposite of his normal splits where he kills right handers and struggles against southpaws. Even though he has not been a monster in the past week, the Royals are hot and have a solid matchup at home against a pitcher in Correia who has given up a .873 OPS against left handers. Plug these guys in for cheap.
- Joe Mauer makes a solid play tonight not only because he is underpriced in a lot of places but because Guthrie’s achilles heel is the left handed hitter. Guthrie has allowed a .884 OPS to lefties this year and 15 home runs. Mauer is not a huge power hitter but he rarely strikes out, and has a great walk rate along with making solid contact often. He is one of the more consistent performers you can pick at catcher.
- Oberholtzer pitched a great game last time out against the Orioles, however I am still not convinced he can be consistently great. The Red Sox have a solid lineup and Vegas has placed them at 5 runs today. Dustin Pedroia has done well against lefties this year, and appears to be back on track after a brutal cold stretch. He should be able to make his value easy at 2nd tonight.
- Not only does Shane Victorino get to face a lefty in Oberholtzer tonight, he also is one of the hottest hitters around. Victorino has multiple hit games in 5 of 6 and the Red Sox consistently put up 5-8 runs. This could be a solid time to stack the Sox, because I still do not believe in Oberholtzer even after his 0 ER start.
- Mike Trout is the hottest hitter on the planet right now, and his price reflects that, however he is producing just like Cabrera at this time. Trout’s walk rate is amazing right now, and it could be because who would want to pitch to him without anyone behind him to punish them? Trout will get on, and he is always a threat to steal. I am a bit wary because the last time it was Perez v Williams it was not a high scoring game, but I can basically guarantee that there will be more than 3 runs scored in this one.
- Without Nelson Cruz, the Rangers are going to lean even more heavily on Adrian Beltre. The slugging hot corner man for the Rangers has good numbers against right handers throughout his career and also good numbers against Williams going 9 for 21 with a homer. Tonight’s Rangers/Angels game should be very interesting but I am expecting some runs.
- Looking through the shortstop pool, there really is nothing that makes me want to use anyone. It looks like a solid position to punt tonight and use a cheap SS. One guy who I do like if you do want to pay is Ian Desmond, as Minor has had some issues pitching to righties this year, giving up a higher average and slugging against right handers. Desmond has not been great lately but does provide some nice power and has protection in his lineup.
- When building a team tonight, do not count out Brett Lawrie from your 3b options. He could prove to be a lesser known gamble option against Iwakuma. Iwakuma has got it together in his past 2 starts, however he was very lucky not to let in an earned run last time as he did not pitch well. He gave up 7 hits and his FB/GB rate was terrible which is what he was struggling with when he was bad. Lawrie provides pop at 3rd and he likes hitting against right handers, hitting them at a higher OPS this year than lefties.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Upton | 1.246 | 0.316 | 0.353 | 0.96 | Strasburg – R | 3.04 | 0.262 |
| Josh Hamilton | 0.785 | 0.259 | 0.296 | 1 | Perez – L | 3.93 | 0.172 |
| Hanley Ramirez | 0.538 | 0.395 | 0.447 | 0.9 | Wainwright – R | 2.61 | 0.371 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.714 | 0.284 | 0.379 | 0.97 | Minor – L | 2.75 | 0.169 |
| Michael Morse | 0.727 | 0.29 | 0.331 | 0.95 | Dickey – R | 4.66 | 0.224 |
| Elvis Andrus | 0.607 | 0.299 | 0.276 | 1.02 | Williams – R | 4.6 | 0.263 |
| Alcides Escobar | 0.188 | 0.257 | 0.246 | 0.93 | Correia – R | 4.49 | 0.208 |
| Carlos Gomez | 0.364 | 0.26 | 0.374 | 0.94 | Gaudin – R | 2.64 | 0.29 |
| Dan Uggla | 0.407 | 0.238 | 0.319 | 0.96 | Strasburg – R | 3.04 | 0.197 |
| Alejandro De Aza | 0.533 | 0.331 | 0.33 | 0.99 | Pettitte – L | 4.28 | 0.33 |
- Strasburg is an enigma this year as some starts just go incredibly poorly. He does not have terrible peripheral numbers so when looking at his stats like his .560 OPS against right handed batters or his 1.68 Home ERA and 1.08 WHIP, he does not look like he is having a bad season. I am definitely fading the Braves tonight even though they are hot, especially Justin Upton whose .763 right handed OPS is .200 points worse than his left handed OPS.
- Fading Josh Hamilton against a left hander is not rocket science, you just have to look at his 3 HR, .496 OPS, .172 avg, and 4 walks to know that it is a pretty bad idea to use him against southpaws. Perez is someone I cannot figure out but he has only given up 1 homer to a left hander and has a lower OPS against them, so this is not good for Josh.
- There are lots of things screming at me to fade Hanley Ramirez tonight. The first is that he has been pretty bad in the last week, his first time struggling really all year. The next is this rumor of an injury which is horrible news for the Dodgers as they think it may be serious. He is also against Wainwright who is a big game pitcher and can shut anyone down, and finally his salary is off the charts. It just seems like a terrible time to use him even with the weak SS pool.
- The lefty/lefty matchup of Minor and Bryce Harper tonight should be dominated by Minor. Mike has held lefties to a .546 OPS while Harper has only been able to hit lefties at a .547 OPS this year. This seems like a pretty poor spot for Harper especially hitting at the top of the lineup where he will not get RBI opportunites.
- I would think long and hard about plugging Michael Morse in tonight. He has struggled against right handers this year with a .677 OPS. If Dickey’s knuckleball is working, it could be a long night for Michael who is striking out a lot right now.
- A .276 wOBA in a pretty big sample like Elvis Andrus has this year is total garbage. This is the lowest wOBA of his career, and while it seems he may be getting a little better, he still has no pop in his bat right now. Andrus is 3 for 18 with a .452 OPS against Williams in his career, so I am definitely going to be looking to avoid him here.
- If there is one guy I do not want to touch at shortstop, even more than Andrus is Alcides Escobar. His stats are Andrus-esque, however they are worse. A .499 OPS against right handers this season and a .188 OPS in his last 7 games coupled with a .239 OBP against right handers. I just do not see why you would want to risk a position on him even if stacking Royals.
- Do not get me wrong, I like Carlos Gomez fantasy potential, however it looks pretty bleak for the rest of the season. With all of the issues the Brewers have had with injuries and Braun, there is no protection in the lineup anymore. Gomez has really struggled lately, and has to face Gaudin in AT&T park. While I am not a big fan of Gaudin, not even Chris Volstad would be afraid of their lineup right now.
- Dan Uggla is still hitting under the Mendoza line for the year, which is pretty absurd considering he has done this for a long time now. He faces Strasburg, who noted above, actually has really good numbers for the season despite appearing to have bad production. Uggla has nice numbers against him in the past, but it is way too risky for me.
- Alejandro De Aza has really been struggling right along with the White Sox. I am not a fan of him tonight as I think you can find outfielders at the same price in better situations. Pettitte has been good against lefties this year only surrendering a .601 OPS, and with the terrible White Sox lineup it will limit his opportunites to post a big game.