Today's Hitter Breakdown: August 7th
Wow, what a wild night last night. If you had a part of the Red Sox/Astros game you probably did pretty well. Good luck to all in the final 8 of the Big League Blast and those playing in the DSBC if you need a big night to qualify or if you need a good night just to stay up there. Red Sox are set at 5 runs again even against Cosart, so fire away!
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prince Fielder | 0.53 | 0.284 | 0.343 | 1.02 | Salazar – R | 1.5 | 0.246 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.808 | 0.284 | 0.382 | 0.97 | Medlen – R | 3.85 | 0.312 |
| Justin Upton | 1.371 | 0.324 | 0.36 | 0.96 | Zimmerman – R | 3.06 | 0.268 |
| Carlos Ruiz | 1.014 | 0.286 | 0.281 | 1 | Wood – L | 3.05 | 0.364 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.96 | 0.322 | 0.34 | 1 | Deduno – R | 3.17 | 0.28 |
| Stephen Drew | 1.201 | 0.318 | 0.333 | 1.05 | Cosart – R | 0.96 | 0.274 |
| Brian Dozier | 0.926 | 0.268 | 0.31 | 0.93 | Duffy – L | 0 | 0.296 |
| Mark Trumbo | 0.593 | 0.278 | 0.332 | 1.02 | Ogando – R | 3.26 | 0.248 |
| Adrian Beltre | 1.007 | 0.314 | 0.381 | 1.02 | Hanson – R | 5.29 | 0.313 |
| Matt Holliday | 0.967 | 0.302 | 0.351 | 0.9 | Nolasco – R | 3.78 | 0.282 |
- I completely understand what the Indians are doing bringing up Salazar to face the Tigers instead of Jimenez. I am not sure if it will work, but if you take a look back at another hard throwing youngster in Strasburg, the Tigers were able to get a hold of him as well. In that game, Prince had a hit 2 walks and 2 runs, and you can find him at a bargain as he has not been performing up to par recently.
- I am going to go ahead and say it, the Braves streak will end tonight. Usually, when a confrontation happens, the big players step up and perform when they have to. I am looking at Bryce Harper to continue that tonight. Not only that, but he is crushing right handed pitching at 1.033 OPS and Medlen has been pretty garbage in his last few starts consistently allowing 4 ER.
- Before last game against Milwaukee, Zimmermann had been awful giving up 12 ER in 8 innings. I do expect him to pitch a little better than that today at home where he has been good, but Justin Upton is matchup proof right now. He is just killing the ball with 4 homers in his last 6 games and a massive hitting streak in this Braves winning streak. If you can afford him, he is a solid play right now.
- When a guy comes back from the DL and they struggle for a bit, their price drops to min salary but you know their talent level is much higher than their salary. This is what happened with Ruiz who is proving that having him at min salary is something to take advantage of. He is punishing left handed pitching with a .364 average and faces Wood today whose weakness is right handed batters. Ruiz is heating up and is a nice catcher value play.
- Baseball is such a strange game, as the Royals can win 13-0 on one night and the next drop a game 7-0 to a rookie pitcher with below average stuff. Who knows what will happen tonight, but I would still like to roll with Eric Hosmer who is having a whale of a last couple of weeks. Hosmer has been having multiple hit games, his power looks to be returning and he has increased in average and OPS every month so far in the season.
- Talking about weird, the Red Sox lose 0-2 one night and win 15-10 the next. I did not have any Red Sox last night so that was the killer for me. Drew is on fire right now after the trade of Iglesias, with a 7 game hitting streak. Drew is crushing right handers and although Cosart has been good, I am still not 100% sold on his game.
- Danny Duffy returns from Tommy John surgery tonight, and gets a start right away in the majors. Is this really a good idea? He has the potential to completely implode, as he has never been great in the majors. The thought was that he was having a nice season before hitting the shelf, however his WHIP was still poor at 1.59. Although some pitchers get better after Tommy John, it still makes me nervous. I love Brian Dozier as a cheap option who has power against left handers who hits at the top of the Twins lineup and should get plenty of opportunites to hit if the Twins are hitting tonight.
- I am going to recommend Mark Trumbo today after putting him in the avoids last night, but let me explain. He faces a guy in Ogando today who has really struggled lately, and is not striking anyone out, potentially taking Trumbo’s strikeout issues out of play. Ogando has allowed right handers to hit him at an .828 OPS and while he has not given up very many homers, Trumbo has the power to send one out at any time, and he should not break the bank for that homer.
- Adrian Beltre just keeps on trucking and producing big numbers for Texas. I love him tonight against Hanson who has been garbage this year with his 1.54 WHIP and north of 5 ERA. Hanson has really struggled at Angel Stadium and it really has not mattered to Beltre where he hits or if he is facing a righty or a lefty, he just produces.
- Interestingly enough, all of Matt Holliday homers this year have came against right handers, all 13 of them. His numbers against righties are good this year and his career numbers against Nolasco are solid going 11 for 24 with 2 homers against the former Marlins pitcher. He has been somewhat off the radar this year but this is a good spot.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.739 | 0.312 | 0.357 | 1.02 | Fister – R | 3.52 | 0.248 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 0.619 | 0.33 | 0.41 | 0.98 | Harvey – R | 2.21 | 0.324 |
| Adam Dunn | 0.881 | 0.258 | 0.343 | 0.9 | Sabathia – L | 4.78 | 0.194 |
| Cody Ross | 1.231 | 0.306 | 0.327 | 0.98 | Archer – R | 2.65 | 0.213 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.565 | 0.314 | 0.294 | 1.03 | Dempster – R | 4.54 | 0.274 |
| Norichika Aoki | 0.369 | 0.291 | 0.319 | 1 | Bumgarner – L | 2.69 | 0.328 |
| Marlon Byrd | 0.581 | 0.34 | 0.351 | 0.98 | Chacin – R | 3.4 | 0.258 |
| Nate Schierholtz | 0.651 | 0.295 | 0.358 | 1.06 | Hamels – L | 3.87 | 0.179 |
| Chase Utley | 0.863 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 1.06 | Wood – L | 3.05 | 0.231 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.283 | 0.299 | 0.36 | 0.88 | Morton – R | 4.07 | 0.235 |
- When Doug Fister was having issues earlier in the season, his control was a bit off and he was leaving stuff up causing a lot of fly balls which is not his game. In the last 3 games his GB/FB rate is back to great, he is not walking anyone, and he is being more efficient with his pitches. Carlos Santana has had no success against Fister when he is sharp going 5 for 27 with a .567 OPS, and he is struggling a bit right now. The Tigers own the Indians for some reason this season so I would be wary of their bats tonight.
- Forget the Rockies competing for a playoff spot, they just cannot score away from Coors. They have scored 14 runs in 7 games and no one is hot. Now they have to face Harvey who is not going to make it easy on them. I would not cough up my salary dollar for Tulo tonight anywhere.
- Yes, Sabathia has been absolute garbage this year, but one thing that could help him out is facing the pathetic White Sox offense. I am not inclined to use him due to his 19 HR given up to right handers with the likes of Rios and Konerko opposing him, however I will be avoiding Adam Dunn who is not hitting lefties with any success (.676 OPS), and Sabathia has been good as usual against lefties (.696 OPS). Sabathia strikes a lot of people out so too risky for Dunn tonight.
- Cody Ross did homer last night against a right hander, but it still does not make me want to use him. He is still hitting at a .594 OPS against righties and has to face Archer who has been absolutely dominant against right handed pitching with a .419 OPS and only 1 HR allowed.
- Jose Altuve came back from his injury and really has done nothing in the last 4 games. Altuve has no real power, and even though Dempster has been garbage against right handers I can see him as a popular pick tonight. Dempster gives up power to righties but as noted, Altuve doesn’t have any.
- Norichika Aoki has really struggled with the loss of all of the bats in the Brewers lineup. He has been horrid in the past week and has to face Bumgarner who is dominant against left handed batters in a pitcher’s park. I would not want to use any Brewers batters at this point, and especially not Aoki.
- Marlon Byrd has done most of his damage against right handed batters, and not much at all recently. He faces Chacin, whose numbers away from Coors field are sparkling with a 1.78 ERA and only 1 HR allowed. Chacin has actually been very good this year and I would not want to use any Mets in this game.
- Nate Schierholtz lineup up as a very solid option last night against the right handed Kendrick, but things have changed for this game. He is the perfect platoon and you should never use him against a left handed pitcher. He has a .532 OPS against left handers this year with no homers (albeit, a small sample), but his career numbers are about the same with no homers. Hamels has been pretty good lately and should be able to hold down the Cubs.
- At this point, you are not really sure what you are going to get out of Travis Wood, but one thing can be said, is that he does not allow left handers to do damage. He has a .511 OPS and has only allowed 1 homer all year to the southpaw batters. Chase Utley fits that bill, and although he makes a solid option usually, I am avoiding him tonight.
- Well, Giancarlo Stanton hot streak ended abruptly. He has been really bad in the last week, striking out a ton of times and having no extra base hits. It does not help that he hits for the Marlins offense, but he is just not worth using at this point. Charlie Morton is not great but he is pitching in a pitcher’s park against a guy who is really struggling to put the bat on the ball.