Today's Hitter Breakdown: August 9th
Again I am pressed for time a little bit today, so I will shorten up the writeups a bit. Lots of solid matchups tonight and even though I did not mention any Twins, I do like the righties like Dozier and Plouffe (I guess) against the White Sox spot starter Leesman.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
Wondering what some of the stats below represent? Check out this popup Batter Breakdown FAQ Page
Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robinson Cano | 0.626 | 0.293 | 0.366 | 1.02 | Porcello – R | 4.28 | 0.303 |
| Jayson Werth | 1.463 | 0.36 | 0.394 | 0.96 | Lannan – L | 4.1 | 0.333 |
| Domonic Brown | 0.661 | 0.277 | 0.358 | 0.97 | Haren – R | 5.14 | 0.248 |
| Edwin Encarnacion | 1.156 | 0.259 | 0.327 | 1.1 | Parker – R | 4.02 | 0.283 |
| Jason Heyward | 0.83 | 0.265 | 0.326 | 0.98 | Turner – R | 2.68 | 0.236 |
| Mike Napoli | 0.457 | 0.366 | 0.341 | 0.93 | Santana – R | 2.97 | 0.252 |
| Elvis Andrus | 0.955 | 0.308 | 0.286 | 1.03 | Bedard – L | 4.29 | 0.259 |
| Allen Craig | 0.795 | 0.368 | 0.362 | 0.9 | Rusin – L | 3.98 | 0.273 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 1.714 | 0.345 | 0.385 | 1.09 | De La Rosa – L | 5.29 | 0.375 |
| Evan Longoria | 0.577 | 0.314 | 0.357 | 0.94 | Capuano – L | 3.78 | 0.328 |
- Robinson cano has fallen off everyone’s radar a little bit as he has been struggling lately in this terrible Yankees lineup, but I like him today. He faces Rick Porcello who has given up a .784 OPS against lefties this year and Cano always hits right handers better than left. He also gets to abuse the short port at Yankee Stadium.
- John Lannan gets to travel to Nationals Park where Jayson Werth has owned him in his career to a tune of 10 for 29 with 4 homers and a 1.269 OPS. Werth is on fire, and if he is in the lineup, I would love to use him today as he has almost a perfect matchup against the left handed Lannan.
- Haren has had some good games recently, but I still do not believe in him. I always thought he was overhyped and never as good as his hype. Domonic Brown is back from the concussion and he smashes right handers. Haren loves giving up homers and is terrible at home, and his recent success does not phase me.
- Edwin Encarnacion is always a solid play when he faces a right hander in Rogers Centre. He has insane power and although Parker has been solid lately, he still gives up homers and is worse away than at home. Parker should struggle in a really hitter friendly park tonight.
- Jason Heyward is day to day, but if he is in the lineup for the Braves he makes a solid play. Heyward has always hit right handers better than right handers and with more power. Not my favorite play of the day but has a chance for a nice game.
- Here is my off the wall catcher pick for the day. Mike Napoli has hit most of his homers off right handed pitchers this year, and when Santana is off, he is giving up homers in droves to both righties and lefties. Santana has been great this year but if you need a cheap catcher option with a chance to homer that no one will own, Napoli could be your guy.
- Who is this guy? Elvis Andrus has put together 2 solid games in a row and rewarded those who gambled on him. He faces Bedard today and the Rangers should have another high scoring game and Andrus should be a big part of it. Do not expect the stolen bases though as he usually only steals against righties.
- Chris Rusin looked a bit more like himself in his last start, giving up 4 ER to the Dodgers. The Cardinals hit lefties very well, so I am expecting another rough game from Rusin even in Busch. Allen Craig salary should be well affordable and he is better against lefties than righties with a career .940 OPS against them in the last 3 years.
- How can you not play Andrew McCutchen today even with his extreme price? The guy is almost automatic right now, and gets to hit at Coors against a left hander. Even though De La Rosa pitches well at Coors, it seems like a complete mistake to fade this tonight.
- Evan Longoria has been struggling lately, but he is a great talent, and will break out. His price is low compared to his average value and he always hits left handers well, this year hitting them at a .992 OPs. I am not too worried about his struggles as he can break out at any time.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam LaRoche | 0.924 | 0.275 | 0.316 | 0.97 | Lannan – L | 4.1 | 0.184 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 0.591 | 0.296 | 0.304 | 1.02 | Weaver – R | 2.9 | 0.244 |
| Todd Helton | 0.425 | 0.29 | 0.312 | 0.98 | Liriano – L | 2.02 | 0.318 |
| Daniel Murphy | 0.555 | 0.305 | 0.314 | 0.99 | Corbin – L | 2.33 | 0.253 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 0.472 | 0.309 | 0.343 | 0.98 | Price – L | 3.36 | 0.29 |
| JJ Hardy | 0.783 | 0.252 | 0.314 | 0.94 | Vogelsong – R | 7.19 | 0.268 |
| Starlin Castro | 0.559 | 0.291 | 0.28 | 0.9 | Lynn – R | 3.78 | 0.254 |
| Alex Gordon | 0.366 | 0.312 | 0.319 | 1 | Peavy – R | 4.14 | 0.245 |
| Josh Hamilton | 0.151 | 0.253 | 0.288 | 1.02 | Kazmir – L | 3.89 | 0.165 |
| Pablo Sandoval | 0.22 | 0.281 | 0.301 | 1 | Tillman – R | 4.07 | 0.255 |
- With how good of a matchup Werth has, Adam LaRoche has just hte opposite against the same guy. LaRoche is 0 for 15 against Lannan with 0 walks and 5 strikeouts. LaRoche is struggling lately and cannot hit left handers, so I would not wish him on anyone’s teams tonight.
- I bet the Indians are glad to see the Tigers leave town because that series was brutal for them and their psyche. The bad thing is they have to now face the angry Angels who just dropped games to the Rangers. Weaver has been pretty good this year and even with Asdrubal Cabrera RBI nights against the Tigers he still isn’t playing that well. He is also 6 for 30 with 0 HR against Weaver.
- Usually you look at players in Coors field and they have super matchups just because of the venue, however against Liriano with a terrible offense it looks bad for the Rockies. I would not use any left handers especially Helton against Liriano as he is holding them to a .311 OPS.
- Another situation with a left handed pitcher who is just dominating left handed hitters. No one on the Mets is looking good tonight especially not Daniel Murphy who is only hitting lefties at a .607 OPS. Murphy’s home runs come against right handers, and Corbin is holding lefties to a .497 OPS.
- If you look at David Price last 3 games, he has pitched 2 complete games with 3 ER in them, so he is obviously back and in good form. The Rays travel to Dodger stadium tonight, and although the Dodgers hit lefties well this could be a long night for Adrian Gonzalez as his 3 for 18 mark against Price is nothing to be excited about.
- This will be Vogelsong’s first start off the disabled list. He was absolutely terrible before he went on, but he did show good in a 5 inning 0 ER game in his last game. He faces a good team in Baltimore but he is in the comfy confines of AT&T park so I am expecting at least a decent showing tonight. JJ Hardy is usually good for home run power, but tonight it does not look good in AT&T.
- Lance Lynn is finally pitching well and Starlin Castro is still sucking it up. Lynn is holding righties to a .609 OPS and that includes his struggles early in the year. Busch stadium is hard on right handed batters, and Castro is not a good right handed batter right now.
- Really interesting dynamic here in the Red Sox/Royals game tonight. You have Alex Gordon who has been absolutely terrible except for one home run this year. For some reason, Gordon cannot hit righties like he has been used to in the last couple years. Gordon has been doing nothing while his team wins and I think it is getting to him mentally.
- Josh Hamilton has been awful lately with a .151 OPS in the last week, he has been terrible against left handers this entire year with a .165 average, and he is facing a pitcher in Kazmir who has been good and is holding lefties to a .518 OPS. Auto fade right here.
- Pablo Sandoval is another guy who has been just garbage in the last week. Sandoval is really struggling this year and has 1 homer since June 24th. The Giants are an embarrassment right now and are not putting much pressure on opposing pitchers. Chris Tillman is actually faring a little bit better against left handers this year and he shouldn’t have to worry about the home run bug in AT&T.